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  满世界找不到稀土的特朗普,可能有点急眼了……

  被中国的反制措施扼住命脉后,特朗普政府被曝计划加大开采太平洋海底的金属并储存在美国境内,而该行为并不具备国际法支持。

  据悉,87%美军工供应链需经过中国稀土加工环节,例如每架F-35战机就需消耗约417公斤的稀土材料,甚至特朗普刚刚宣布的美国六代机项目可能也要受到重大影响。据美媒近日报道,作为对特朗普政府向中国加征关税的回应,中国日前对多种稀土相关物项实施出口管制,其中涵盖了对航空电子设备领域至关重要的资源,这可能会严重影响美国第六代战机项目研发进展。

  特朗普上月在白宫宣布,选定波音公司来执行生产美国第六代战机项目,并将战机命名为F-47。特朗普称这将是“有史以来最先进、性能最强、杀伤力最强的飞机”。另据美国媒体报道,F-47将接替F-22成为美空军第六代主力空中优势战斗机。预计整个项目总价值高达数千亿美元,单机造价超过3亿美元,仅工程和制造开发合同价值就超过200亿美元。

  特朗普政府被曝计划在海底挖稀土

  专家:开采技术尚未完善

  据英国《金融时报》12日报道,特朗普政府正在起草一项行政命令,该命令指美国正计划囤积太平洋海底发现的金属,加大开采海底金属结核,并储存在美国境内,以应对中国限制稀有金属出口的情况。

  据报道,世界大多数海底普遍存在多金属结核,这些像土豆大小的结核是在海底高压下经过数百万年形成的,富含镍、钴、铜、锰等金属,这些金属是制造电动汽车电池、军工设备以及高科技产品的重要原材料。

  美国媒体记者:它们为什么这么有价值?里面有什么?

  加拿大迪普格林金属公司首席执行官杰拉德·巴伦:电动车电池(所需的元素)都在这块石头里,它其实是一块美丽的多金属结核。了不起的是,它里面富含镍、钴、铜和锰,而这些正是制造电池所需的东西。

  值得注意的是,该行为并不具备国际法支持。事实上,美国在很大程度上缺席海底采矿的国际谈判,而且它尚未批准《联合国海洋法公约》。专家表示:“特朗普团队囤积太平洋海底金属资源,可能是想控制相关海底可开采资源的区域,但目前海底开采矿产的条件还不成熟,除了天然气、石油有少量开采外,其他海底资源开采技术尚未完善。”即使在成熟的地表开采,形成规模性生产效率也需要以10年为单位的筹备期。

  精准打击!87%美军工供应链

  需经过中国稀土加工环节

  在美国总统特朗普4月2日宣布对中国商品征收“对等关税”两天后,中国宣布对七类中重稀土相关物项实施出口管制,至少有4种——钆、铽、钇、镝,被广泛用于美军的先进战机的各种子系统和零部件。《纽约时报》13日称,中国对稀土金属和稀土磁体的出口管制引发了美国相关行业的恐慌,他们担心这可能会导致这些矿产及相关产品出现供应短缺,而各公司应对此类突发事件的应急储备规模差异很大,生产中断的时间很难预测。

  以洛克希德·马丁公司的F-35隐身战斗机为例,其电子战系统、目标雷达和方向舵电机中,每架飞机需消耗约417公斤的稀土材料。统计显示,美军现役及在研的153种主战装备中,87%的供应链需要经过稀土加工环节。

  澳新银行高级大宗商品策略师丹尼尔·海恩斯:中国几乎掌控了整个供应链,不仅拥有全球大部分稀土矿产量,更重要的是掌握着供应链中的加工环节,包括精炼、冶炼及制成可用部件等工艺,其全球市场份额约达80%至90%。

  特朗普到处找稀土未果

  1月20日就任美国总统以来,特朗普一直在满世界找稀土。

  今年2月,特朗普在白宫表示,他希望乌克兰通过向美国供应稀土等资源换取美国对乌援助。特朗普说:“我们希望同乌克兰达成一项协议,他们将用稀土等来换取我们给他们的东西……我们投入了数千亿美元。他们拥有大量稀土。我希望确保稀土安全,他们愿意这样做。”

  当地时间22日,美国总统特朗普在美保守派政治行动会议(CPAC)发表演讲时表示,要求从乌克兰获得稀土、石油和“任何我们能得到的东西”,以收回投入乌克兰的资金,“我认为我们非常接近与乌克兰达成协议”。

  然而,随着2月28日特朗普与泽连斯基白宫那场争吵,美乌矿产协议暂时搁浅。

  当地时间3月3日,特朗普在白宫出席记者会时,特朗普还在念叨稀土,他表示美国与乌克兰达成的矿产协议对美国来说是一笔“好交易”,美国需要稀土。

  当地时间3月27日,据美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)报道,两位知情人士透露称,一份草案副本显示,特朗普政府已向乌克兰提出了一项新的自然资源协议提案,该提案将使美国获得更多乌克兰的稀土。据悉,这项新提案不包括有关在俄乌冲突中提供具体的安全保障。

  特朗普3月31日对记者表示,乌克兰总统泽连斯基想要就稀土问题与美国重新谈判。特朗普当天表示,此前美乌就矿产协议进行讨论时,乌克兰加入北约的问题从未被讨论过。

  美国总统特朗普:泽连斯基,我看到他想重新就稀土问题谈判。实际情况是,我们就稀土问题达成了一项协议,一切都敲定了。

  不过,据央视新闻4月12日消息,当地时间4月11日,美国和乌克兰官员就美国提出的一份美乌矿产协议举行会谈。央视记者获悉,一位知情人士透露,鉴于会谈的“对立”气氛,取得突破的前景渺茫。

  与此同时,特朗普也试图从俄罗斯获得稀土。当地时间2月25日,美国总统特朗普表示,其也想购买俄罗斯土地上的矿产。“我希望达成协议,获得俄罗斯稀土资源。”特朗普还称,将在某个时候解除对俄罗斯的制裁。

  然而此后俄美进行了多轮谈判,并未就稀土达成任何共识。

  美智库:特朗普关税政策

  将引发美国经济滞胀

  除了被中国反制,特朗普朝令夕改的关税政策近期遭到广泛批评,并且引发美股、美债、美元行情巨震。

  高盛、大小摩、花旗等华尔街多个巨头对此发出了警告,称美国经济可能因此陷入衰退。拜登近日也公开怒斥特朗普,上任不到100天就造成如此大的破坏。

  美国智库彼得森国际经济研究所15日发布的半年度经济预测数据显示,在政策不确定性影响下,2025年美国经济增长或陷入停滞,未来12个月陷入衰退的概率达40%。

  该智库预计,今年第四季度,美国国内生产总值(GDP)同比增速仅为0.1%,个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数同比将上涨4.0%,明显高于去年第四季度2.5%的同比增幅。

  牵头这项经济预测的彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员、哈佛大学教授卡伦·戴南当天在发布活动上说,受政策变化影响,美国经济将出现增长停滞与通胀上升并存的局面。美国关税政策将推高物价、蚕食实际收入、扰乱供应链并阻碍投资决策,而移民数量锐减将拖累美国潜在产出和需求增长。联邦政府裁员及新设政府效率部引发的行政混乱,不仅未能实质性改善财政状况,反而进一步加剧了政策不确定性。

  戴南说,美国经济面临“重大下行风险”。若股市进一步暴跌、市场对美国财政管理丧失信心,或是通胀预期脱锚引发货币政策再度收紧,经济疲软态势恐将加剧。

  从全球来看,戴南认为,如果美国政府当前宣布的关税政策基本维持不变,并引发报复性措施,很多国家未来几个季度的经济增速将明显低于半年前的预期。该智库预计,2025年全球实际GDP增速为2.7%,2026年为2.8%,较去年3.2%的增速显著放缓。

  彼得森国际经济研究所所长亚当·波森在发言中表示,当前美国政策不确定性对经济带来显著负面影响。他个人预测,美国经济陷入衰退的概率已升至65%。“我们正在经历美国经济政策体系的根本性转变。”

  美国前财政部长耶伦4月14日也表示,美国的关税政策加剧了经济衰退的风险,“经济衰退的可能性大幅上升”。耶伦表示,在关税政策不确定的情况下,企业将不愿投资,这有可能引发“严重的经济衰退”。尽管如此,耶伦认为,美联储鉴于关税带来的通胀风险,将“不愿”降低利率。

  (声明:文章内容和数据仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。)

 

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