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来源:@华夏时报微博

华夏时报记者刘诗萌北京报道

近日来,美国政府滥施关税的举动,引发了世界金融市场大幅动荡,也令经济全球化蒙上了一层浓重的阴影。在全球化遭遇逆流的时刻,中国经济能否顶住压力稳健前行,也是整个世界瞩目的焦点。

4月16日,国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会,介绍2025年一季度国民经济运行情况。数据显示,2025年一季度中国GDP达到5.4%,比上年四季度环比增长1.2%,实现了“开门红”。其中进出口数据上,一季度货物贸易进出口同比增长1.3%,出口增长6.9%,尤其是在2月份以来国际贸易限制增多的背景下,中国出口的韧性尽显。

在回应美国加征关税的相关问题时,国家统计局副局长盛来运指出,中国坚决反对美国搞关税壁垒和贸易霸凌,违背了经济规律和世界贸易的原则,对世界经济秩序造成严重冲击,拖累世界经济复苏。中方坚决采取一系列反制措施,不仅是维护自身发展利益的需要,也是维护世界多边贸易体系和世贸组织规则的正当之举。

他表示,从短期来看,美国加征高额关税会对我国经济和外贸带来一定压力,但是改变不了中国经济持续长期向好的大势。中国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜力大,我们有底气、有信心、有能力应对外部挑战,实现既定发展目标。

外需有亮点

在此前举行的发布会上,海关总署副署长王令浚也向包括《华夏时报》记者在内的媒体表示,一季度中国对170多个国家和地区的出口都实现了增长,尤其是对制造业在扩张期间的亚洲、非洲出口分别增长7.8%、12.5%,增速高于整体。中国制造高端化、智能化、绿色化转型动能强劲,新能源产品继续在全球绿色转型中发挥重要作用,一季度风力发电机组、锂电池、电动汽车等出口分别增长43.2%、18.8%和8.2%。

中泰证券研究所政策组首席分析师杨畅向《华夏时报》记者分析,从3月单月来看,出口交货值同比上涨7.7%,与2月同比上涨6.2%相比提高1.5个百分点。考虑到3月PPI同比下降2.5%,而1月、2月分别同比下降2.3%、2.2%,剔除掉价格因素之后,出口交货值同比增速提升,指向短期出口较强。另外,东南亚集装箱运价指数在底部持续回升,指向中国对东南亚出口相对较强,也是出口数据的一大亮点。

东南亚作为中国企业出海的“桥头堡”,在此番国际贸易局势震荡中受到了极大的关注。近日,在中央周边工作会议上,中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平指出,构建周边命运共同体,要与周边国家巩固战略互信,支持地区国家走稳自身发展道路,妥善管控矛盾分歧;深化发展融合,构建高水平互联互通网络,加强产业链供应链合作;共同维护地区稳定,开展安全和执法合作,应对各类风险挑战;扩大交往交流,便利人员往来。近期,习近平密集出访越南、马来西亚和柬埔寨,深入推进周边命运共同体建设。

财信研究认为,特朗普极端化关税政策将对全球贸易复苏产生巨大扰动,并对我国出口产生冲击,预计4月份我国对美出口会出现下行,进而拖累整体出口。不过,近年来中国贸易伙伴不断拓展、贸易结构持续优化,有效提高了应对全球供应链和市场波动的能力,或对出口份额也形成一定支撑。

内需有支撑

在国际贸易形势波谲云诡、日趋复杂之时,中国更需要“强内功”,将内需作为稳定锚。盛来运指出,党的十八大以来,中国经济一直在持续推动转型升级和高质量发展,原来依靠投资和出口带动的发展模式发生了根本改变,依靠内需和创新驱动共同推动经济增长的新格局正在形成。中国现在是世界第二大经济体,连续15年稳居第一制造业大国的地位,产业体系完整、配套能力强,经济发展底盘稳、基础牢。同时,中国有14亿多人口,市场规模巨大,现在人均GDP超过1.3万美元,正处在消费升级的关键阶段,市场成长性好,无论是投资还是消费空间都非常大,将支撑中国经济持续发展。

他表示,去年9月26日,中央政治局会议果断部署了一揽子增量政策,对稳定经济发挥了关键作用,中央经济工作会议部署要求宏观政策更加积极有为,今年以来政策措施加力扩围,存量政策和增量政策共同显效,推动今年一季度经济开局良好。但同时也要清醒地看到,当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻,全球贸易保护主义快速升温,世界经济秩序面临重创,国内结构转型任务仍然比较繁重。所以,持续推动经济回升向好,需要付出更加艰巨的努力。

中国银河宏观团队认为,随着经济转型的不断深入,内需潜力释放的重要性不断上升,如果用我国和其他国家消费率的差距来判断我国消费潜力,会发现我国消费率不仅低于发达国家,还大大低于同为东亚文化下的日本和韩国,甚至在某些阶段大大低于比我国人均GDP水平低很多的菲律宾、泰国、印度等国家,且纵向来看我国消费率在过去二十年的经济发展中并没有明显变动,说明我国消费的发展是落后于经济增长的,消费能力和潜力没有得到长足的释放,我国促消费、推动消费升级潜力巨大。其认为,未来财政政策可能进一步加码内需对冲出口的拖累,新增规模可能在1.5万—2万亿左右,目前已宣布尚未完全落地的逆周期政策包括育儿补贴、加力实施城中村改造等将加速落地。

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