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【报告导读】

1. 出口规模效应推动海外市场盈利能力提升,新能源品牌深蓝与阿维塔单车亏损大幅收窄。

2. 期间费用率整体较为稳定,销售费用率受市场竞争影响有所上涨。

3. 香格里拉+北斗天枢+海纳百川三大战略推动加速转型,公司综合竞争力进入加速提升期。

核心观点

事件:公司发布2024年年度报告,全年公司实现营业收入1597.33亿元,同比+5.6%,实现归母净利润73.21亿元,同比-35.4%,实现扣非归母净利润25.87亿元,同比-31.6%,EPS为0.74元。2024年Q4,公司实现营业收入487.73亿元,同比+13.2%,环比+42.5%,实现归母净利润37.42亿元,同比+158.9%,环比+400.1%,实现扣非归母净利润9.07亿元,同比+435.2%,环比+77.0%。

出口规模效应推动海外市场盈利能力提升,新能源品牌深蓝与阿维塔单车亏损大幅收窄:2024年公司自主品牌销量同比增长5.6%至159.73万辆,销量结构明显改善,新能源销量同比增长55.0%至73.46万辆,占比同比提升10.4pct至33.0%,2024年以来新能源销量占比逐季提升,Q4提升至44.7%,出口销量同比增长126.8%至53.62万辆,占比同比提升12.8pct至24.1%,其中Q4上升至38.7%。2025年Q1,公司销量结构改善趋势延续,自主品牌销量同比增长3.8%至61.10万辆,其中新能源销量同比增长50.7%至19.42万辆,占比同比提升9.9pct至31.8%,出口销量同比增长46.5%至15.96万辆,占比同比提升7.6pct至26.1%。单车均价方面,2024年公司自主品牌单车均价同比微降0.05%至7.21万元,其中海外单车均价同比降低30.4%至6.05万元,主要受到海外向更广大市场拓展影响,国内单车均价同比提升7.2%至7.53万元,主要得益于新能源销量占比提升推动品牌形象提升。盈利能力方面,2024年公司单车扣非归母净利润同比降低35.5%至0.12万元,主要受到国内市场竞争加剧的影响,出口市场盈利能力得益于规模效应明显提升,2024年公司海外市场毛利率同比提升1.9pct至26.2%,国内市场毛利率同比降低4.1pct至12.1%,公司在国内采取了更激进的价格策略应对市场竞争,影响了盈利水平,但公司新能源品牌通过规模效应与积极的降本措施实现单车亏损的大幅缩窄。2024年公司深蓝品牌净利润为-15.72亿元,亏损同比缩窄47.6%,销量同比提升74.7%至22.51万辆,单车亏损大幅缩窄70.0%至0.7万元;阿维塔品牌净利润为-40.18亿元,亏损同比扩大8.8%,但销量同比增长217.4%至6.43万辆,单车亏损同比大幅缩窄65.7%至6.25万元。

期间费用率整体较为稳定,销售费用率受市场竞争影响有所上涨:2024年公司研发费用同比增长8.8%至65.05亿元,研发费用率同比+0.1pct至4.1%,研发费用保持稳定增长。2024年公司销售费用率/管理费用率/财务费用率分别为4.7%/2.8%/-0.6%,同比分别+0.8pct/持平/持平,销售费用主要受到市场竞争影响,终端折扣力度加大带来相关费用增长,其他期间费用较为稳定。

香格里拉+北斗天枢+海纳百川三大战略推动加速转型,公司综合竞争力进入加速提升期:2025年公司香格里拉(新能源)、北斗天枢(智能化)、海纳百川(全球化)三大计划有望推动公司转型的持续加速,新能源方面,公司2025年将推出包含阿维塔06、深蓝S09、启源Q07在内的十余款新能源新品,产品矩阵加速完善,阿维塔06上市26小时订单破2万,爆款潜力十足,新能源产品供给的逐渐丰富有望进一步提升公司新能源销量增长潜力;智能化方面,公司于2025年2月9日发布北斗天枢2.0计划,将于10万元级别车型搭载激光雷达,推动智驾平权加速,预计于2025年实现端到端大模型量产落地,2026年实现全场景L3自动驾驶。公司还基于SDA平台和天枢大模型打造了天枢智驾、天域座舱、天衡底盘,推动产品智能化水平的全面提升;全球化方面,公司2025年计划新建6个海外KD工厂,5月份泰国工厂计划投产,预计到2025年底建成46万辆的海外产能,并将在2025年在海外发布多款新车,全球化进程稳步推进。公司三大战略有望带来公司综合竞争力的全面提升,加速公司在新能源、智能化、全球化的转型,改善公司产品结构,推动公司业务规模与盈利能力的提升。

风险提示

产品销量不及预期的风险;智能化技术研发不及预期的风险;市场竞争加剧的风险。

如需获取报告全文,请联系您的客户经理,谢谢!

本文摘自:中国银河证券2025年4月15日发布的研究报告《【银河汽车】公司点评报告_长安汽车_2024年年报业绩点评:新能源品牌单车亏损大幅收窄,三大战略加速转型》

分析师:石金漫

研究助理:秦智坤

评级体系:

评级标准为报告发布日后的6到12个月行业指数(或公司股价)相对市场表现,其中:A股市场以沪深300指数为基准,新三板市场以三板成指(针对协议转让标的)或三板做市指数(针对做市转让标的)为基准,北交所市场以北证50指数为基准,香港市场以恒生指数为基准。

行业评级

推荐:相对基准指数涨幅10%以上。

中性:相对基准指数涨幅在-5%~10%之间。

回避:相对基准指数跌幅5%以上。

公司评级

推荐:相对基准指数涨幅20%以上。

谨慎推荐:相对基准指数涨幅在5%~20%之间。

中性:相对基准指数涨幅在-5%~5%之间。

回避:相对基准指数跌幅5%以上。

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