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  转自:金融界

  直到昨晚人们才缓过神来,特朗普真正的交易是“卖掉美国”。

  全球市场继续遭遇抛售,尤其是对美国资产避之不及:

  -美元、美股、美债同步下跌,并且跌幅不小。美元一度跌破98水平,10年期美债收益率再度逼近4.5%,而美股三大股指跌幅均超2%;

  -与此同时,金价再创历史新高,突破3400美元——这是对美元信用体系的质疑。

  需要注意的是,特朗普对等关税引发的危机“未完待续”,现在又出现了第二轮危机“美联储独立性危机”。

  1、原本我们认为,特朗普通过周一亚洲时段市场的走势,应当认识到对美联储的批评已经影响到了市场,会想办法缓和,但事实相反——特朗普周一再次施压鲍威尔立即降息。在他看来,这恰恰是一场更大的“谈判”。他需要用舆论压力逼迫美联储提前降息,以配合他的减税和财政刺激政策。

  特朗普在TruthSocial上的一篇帖子中表示:“正如我所预测的那样,这些成本呈下降趋势,几乎不会出现通胀,但经济可能会放缓,除非‘太晚先生’,一个大失败者,现在降息。”

  2、这两场都是“人造危机”,解铃还须系铃人。要么特朗普在关税上让步,要么在与美联储的对峙中让步。

  摆在特朗普目前的是一道选择题:

  让美联储让步,在关税上更加激进;

  在关税上让步,更加猛烈批评美联储,换取美联储让步后,进一步升级关税政策。

  从特朗普的性格特点看,他可以轻易出尔反尔,但最终的目标不会改变。现在人们对任何消息都心存恐惧,感觉就像身处一个黑暗的房间里,地板上摆满了锋利的玻璃,最好的办法就是站着不动,祈祷灯能重新亮起来。但时间是不等人的,如果特朗普现在不让步,以后让步就晚了,市场会在最糟糕的情况还没发生前对其定价。

  3、现在最大的问题是,市场站在特朗普这一边,预计美联储今年会降息4次或更多。过去美联储“降息预期”只是单纯的被市场绑架,只需通过几场讲话便能扭转市场预期。而如今市场有了“带头大哥”。

  过去,美联储讲话可以轻松化解危机;如今,市场更在意的是特朗普的下一条推文。卖掉美国的不是资本,而是美国自己。(来源:华尔街情报圈)

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  顺丰控股(06936)发布公告,公司作为发起人的顺丰基础设施REIT于2025年3月5日取得中国证券监督管理委员会出具的准予注册批复。顺丰基础设施REIT已于2025年3月24日完成基金募集,并自2025年4月21日起在深圳证券交易所上市,交易代码为180305,基金场内简称为“南方顺丰物流REIT”。

  顺丰基础设施REIT最终募集基金份额10亿份,每份基金份额发售价格为人民币3.290元,基金募集规模为人民币32.90亿元。顺丰基础设施REIT发售由战略配售、网下发售、公众投资者发售三个部分组成。战略配售基金份额数量为7.00亿份,占发售份额总数的比例为70%,其中:公司下属两家子公司作为原始权益人合计认购数量为3.40亿份,占发售份额总数的比例为34%,其他战略投资者认购数量为3.60亿份,占发售份额总数的比例为36%;网下投资者认购数量2.20亿份,占发售份额总数的比例为22%;公众投资者认购数量为0.80亿份,占发售份额总数的比例为8%。

  本次发行顺丰基础设施REIT将使公司成功搭建物流产业园轻资产资本运作平台,有效盘活公司旗下物流产业园资产,同时进一步拓宽融资管道,且部分募集资金将再投资于其他物流产业园等基础设施项目,实现公司在仓储物流基础设施领域投资的良性循环,增强公司可持续经营能力。

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