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  各位小伙伴大家好呀,我是投顾团队的晓月。最近见证历史的次数有点多,周一又轮到黄金了。

  这周一(4月21日),黄金价格再破历史新高。伦敦金现日内涨超2%,盘中最高点来到3397美元/盎司,COMEX黄金日内涨至2.3%,盘中最高点破3400美元/盎司,均创下历史新高。(数据来源:wind,截至2025042117:00)

  于是,今天的市场上出现了两种不同的声音:

  一种是,前期已买入黄金的投资者朋友,有些忧心忡忡,担心当前价格已经见顶,犹豫是否止盈;另一种是,尚未持仓黄金或者持有少量仓位、打算补仓的投资者,则更关注黄金是否还值得买入,以及该怎么买。

  所以,在这个时点,我们来和大家聊聊投顾团队的思考。

  1.最近黄金为何疯涨?

  其实,整体来看还是我们之前提过的几个大因素:避险需求、央行购金以及美联储降息在推动金价中枢的抬升。

  一方面,美国白宫4月15日发布的“232”调查事实清单显示中国部分商品面临最高245%的关税,中美关税战的反复变化,贸易摩擦仍存不确定性,导致了全球投资者避险情绪持续升温——这也是推动金价上涨的主要因素。

  另一方面,上周美联储主席鲍威尔讲话暗示滞胀危险、粉碎市场对联储出手的期望,他重申美联储将先观望、待形势更明确后再考虑降息行动,并警告联储面临通胀和经济双重目标存在冲突的两难挑战,该表述被视为提出了滞胀的担忧。截至上周五(4月18日),市场预期美联储2025年全年降息3.4次,周环比提升0.4次。

  鲍威尔讲话后避险资产集体走高,黄金创一年多来最大涨幅,涨势一直延续到了这两天。

  此外,欧央行如期降息25bp,造成美元走弱,利好金价上涨;昨天美国总统特朗普在社交平台上发表有关谈判和成功的感悟,称二者并行不悖的黄金法则是“拥有黄金者制定规则”——HEWHOHASTHEGOLDMAKESTHERULES,也让周一的黄金价格应声高开。

  因此,在多方因素的共同作用下,最近的黄金疯涨拉升,再创历史新高。

  2.3400的关口,是到顶了吗?

  先说结论,迅速冲高的背景下,我们认为,金价短期是存在调整风险的,但中长期支撑逻辑未变。

  自4月3日特朗普宣布关税政策以来,黄金市场经历了一段复杂的走势。

  最初,在出售黄金兑换现金的追保需求下,黄金价格冲高回落,三个交易日内回吐了近三周的涨幅,COMEX黄金一度跌破3000美元/盎司关口。

  然而,从4月7日开始,黄金价格出现显著反弹,并在随后的交易日中连续上涨约12%。

来源:wind,截至20250421

  短期来看,二季度全球关税浪潮持续演绎,快速冲高金价还是面临一定的波动风险,比如美联储鹰派发言与市场乐观降息预期之间的分歧,以及中美贸易战的反复导致的风险偏好变化等因素,可能都会导致金价的波动。

  4月21日上午,上海黄金交易所也向会员单位发布风险提示称,近期贵金属价格波动剧烈,请各会员提高风险防范意识,继续做好风险应急预案,维护市场平稳运行。同时,提示投资者做好风险防范工作,合理控制仓位,理性投资。

  我们强调过,黄金并不是保本、稳健类的资产,作为另类商品,其短期的波动风险,大家一定一定要保持谨慎。

  毕竟今年以来黄金涨幅已超30%了,相较于2018年贸易战的5.7%,已经涨超非常多了。在关税落地后,是否会发生“利好出尽即为利空”的情形,也是有一定不确定性的。

数据来源:wind,黄金资产为AU9999.SGE,数据截至2025.4.21

  3.中长期怎么看?

  我们在4月初发布的《指数100份复盘:A股、港股、美股怎么看?有哪些机会与风险?》中曾提到过:

  特朗普政策频繁反复,带来极大的不确定性和避险需求,加上全球央行购金行为,中长期来看,我们认为金价或有较强支撑。

  目前这三方面的长期支撑仍存在:

  1)美国赤字仍在超预期扩张,此前国会通过的预算法案的开支超预期,继续削减美元信用;

  2)美国政策不确定性过高,上周特朗普称要换掉鲍威尔,特朗普的随意性政策打压全球投资美国信心、打压美国内部企业投资和居民消费倾向;

  3)关税对经济和盟友圈的危害意味着地缘风险的上升。

  因此,美元信用体系崩塌的背景下,各国央行持续增加购金,且至少将在未来数年继续维持,共同推动了中长期金价的上涨。

  4. 最后,关于投资的建议

  到现在这个位置,其实黄金价格对当前关税、降息、通胀这些因素的反映都比较充分了,未来更多是看增量政策变化,但这种变化是很难预测的,因此作为普通投资者,我们还是建议大家:

  ① 保持冷静也是一种操作

  越是行情动荡,越需要保持冷静理性。在当前复杂的局势中,切忌去过度博弈单一资产的单边趋势,也要避免非理性的频繁大额操作。

  ②坚定多元资产配置的策略

  正如我们一直所坚持的,在市场波动加剧的情况下,多元化投资是降低组合风险的有效策略之一。

  ③ 寻找专业力量的帮助

  如果你没有时间和精力关注市场,也可以考虑关注广发基金的投顾组合,我们的研究覆盖了A股、A债、美股、美债、黄金等大类资产,致力于为你提供“从投到顾”的全方位服务,努力让大家拥有更轻松的投资体验。

  (文章来源:广发基金投顾)

  风险提示:广发基金本着勤勉尽责、诚实守信、投资者利益优先的原则开展基金投顾业务,但并不保证各投顾组合一定盈利,也不保证最低收益。投资者参与基金投顾业务,存在本金亏损的风险。基金投资组合策略的风险特征与单只基金产品的风险特征存在差异。基金投顾业务项下各投资组合策略的业绩仅代表过往业绩,不预示未来的业绩表现,为其他投资者创造的收益也不构成业务表现的保证。因基金投资顾问业务尚处于试点阶段,存在因基金投顾机构的试点资格被取消不能继续提供服务的风险。投资前请认真阅读投顾协议、策略说明书等法律文件,充分了解投顾业务详情及风险特征,选择适合自身的组合策略,投资须谨慎

MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错!

  每经北京4月22日电(记者赵雯琪)今日中午,不少网友在社交媒体上发文称“京东外卖崩了”,相关话题迅速冲上热搜。对此,京东方面给《每日经济新闻》记者发来回应称:服务已恢复,超时20分钟全部免单。

  京东在回应中表示:非常抱歉,耽误大家用餐了!因今日午高峰京东外卖下单量暴增,导致系统出现短暂故障,目前已全面恢复,大家可以正常下单了。感谢大家的理解与支持,为表达歉意,所有超时20分钟以上的外卖订单,京东全部免单。同时,对于今日午高峰宕机期间所有下单用户,京东外卖将额外发放一张10元无门槛优惠券至下单账户。再次感谢大家的理解与支持!我们会持续优化服务与体验!

  4月16日,“京东外卖崩了”相关话题也曾登上微博热搜,京东外卖自3月1日正式上线,4月15日宣布日单量已经突破500万单。

  美国股市周一暴跌,1.4万亿美元市值蒸发,促使前摩根大通首席股票分析师、Fundstrat的执行合伙人TomLee将这一单日损失与美国的年度贸易逆差相提并论。

  Lee在X上发帖称:“美国2024年的商品贸易逆差为1.2万亿美元。今天股票市值的损失相当于1“贸易逆差”。这凸显出白宫需要采取权宜之计来达成这些贸易协议。”

  美国三大股指周一全新暴跌,标普500指数下跌2.36%,至5,158.20点,道琼斯工业平均指数下跌2.48%,纳斯达克100指数下跌2.46%。

  在美国总统特朗普要求立即降息并批评美联储主席鲍威尔是“太迟先生”之后,人们再次担心美联储的独立性。特朗普声称“几乎没有通胀”,并警告说,如果美联储不及时采取行动,经济将放缓。

  美元大幅走弱,美元指数跌至2022年初以来的最低水平。与此同时,另类资产飙升,SPDRGoldTrust上涨2.81%,比特币上涨2.42%。

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