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西藏自治区

  界面新闻记者|唐卓雅

  界面新闻编辑|谢欣

  4月24日晚间,未名医药(维权)发布公告称,天津药监局对控股子公司天津未名生物医药有限公司(以下简称“天津未名”)进行了药品生产质量管理规范符合性检查,查出天津未名相关药品生产行为不符合《药品生产质量管理规范》(2010年修订)要求,对天津未名采取暂停生产、销售风险控制措施。

  4月25日开盘,未名医药股价跌停。截至收盘,未名医药报7.42元/股,跌9.95%,当前市值为48.95亿元。

  值得注意的是,天津未名需完成整改验收工作,方能恢复生产,暂停销售的产品需要按国家药监局标准检验合格后方能重新销售使用。在此期间,天津未名的销售及回款将受到不利影响。

  未名医药目前预计天津未名停产时间不超过三个月,但根据相关规定,若天津未名三个月内无法恢复生产,则未名医药可能触发其他风险警示的情形,即有可能被实施ST(特别处理)。

  天津未名主要从事人干扰素药品的生产与销售,2024年,天津未名实现营业收入2.17亿元、净利润-1400.37万元,分别占同期未名医药营业收入的60.09%、合并报表净润的9.8%,是未名医药的重要子公司。

  实际上,天津未名被要求停产整顿已有前兆,此前该公司生产的人干扰素α2b喷雾剂已“暴雷”。

  此前,上海市药监局对天津未名生产的1批“人干扰素α2b喷雾剂”进行抽检,检验结果为“生物学活性不符合规定”。而该产品曾在江西省医保局牵头开展的29省份干扰素省际联盟集中带量采购中中标,但是因抽检结果不合格,截止到今年4月21日,已有上海、浙江、内蒙古、西藏等多地相继发布通知,暂停采购天津未名生产的人干扰素α2b喷雾剂。

  未名医药称,天津未名针对该批次检验结果向原药品承检单位申请复验,复验结果尚未出具。未名医药对所有在市场流通的人干扰素α2b喷雾剂全部暂停销售并主动召回,待进一步检查结果出具后再恢复供应。截至年报披露日(2025年4月22日),市场上已无上述批号的人干扰素α2b喷雾剂在售。因本次召回冲减当期营业收入2316.72万元,同时对天津2025年干扰素销售造成影响。

  2024年,未名医药实现营收3.6亿元,同比下降16.14%,净亏损1.37亿元。其中,干扰素2024年的营收同比下降28.59%达到2.17亿元,占总营收的60.28%,产品毛利率为79.92%。

  2024年并非未名医药首次出现亏损。自2018年以来,未名医药的业绩起伏不定,七年时间里有五年业绩出现亏损。

  2018年是未名医药坎坷发展的起点。当时,未名医药旗下重要的子公司有未名天源、厦门未名、北京科兴、天津未名,主要产品分别为化工产品、鼠神经生长因子、疫苗、干扰素。

  这一年,未名医药全资子公司未名天源因受环保政策影响,上游企业停产致使原材料供应中断,加之其所处淄博搬迁改造区域,于2018年5月8日全面停产。2017年,未名天源为未名医药贡献了近3亿元的营收和6636.37万元的净利润,分别占当期公司营收、净利润的25.7%、17%。这一停产事件直接导致未名医药2018年的精细化工业务营收大幅下降。

  另外,受医保控费、招标限价等多项医改政策影响,未名医药旗下厦门未名的核心产品鼠神经生长因子产品收入锐减,当时鼠神经生长因子的营收占未名医药总营收的76.2%。2019年,该产品直接被调出医保目录。一个子公司停产、一个子公司产品销量大减,2018年,未名医药亏损9578.91万元,同比下滑124.66%。

  同样是在2018年,美股科兴生物私有化回归,引发未名医药与科兴生物争夺北京科兴控制权。当年4月,因控制权之争,导致未名医药年报披露不及时而被深交所发函问询,引发资本市场的高度关注。而后双方更是爆发武力冲突,北京科兴厂区电源被切断,损失市场价值1540.4万元的疫苗产品。

  未名医药接连受挫,业绩也一蹶不振、一路下滑,但围绕北京科兴的控制权之争尚未完结。当时,未名医药通过子公司厦门未名持有北京科兴26.91%的股份。2022年5月,在未名医药时任董事会不知情且未履行相关审议程序的情况下,未名医药原董事长潘爱华等人将杭州强新变更为厦门未名股东,企图先借此保住未名医药、厦门未名的控制权,再谋求北京科兴控制权。

  此事发生时,正是未名医药两任董事会交接之时——潘爱华卸任,由岳家霖接任董事长一职。2022年8月,岳家霖就任未名医药董事长后,将潘爱华等人告上法庭。2024年2月,潘爱华一审被判构成职务侵占罪、挪用资金罪,法院判决追缴杭州强新非法占有的厦门未名34%股权并返还给未名医药。

  这场股权闹剧暂告一段落,但未名医药的业绩却再难好转。2024年,未名医药的营收仅为2018年的一半左右。

  目前,未名医药的业务主要依靠旗下三家关键子公司支撑,分别为天津未名、厦门未名和北京科兴。曾经为未名医药贡献七成以上业绩的鼠神经生长因子,2024年时营收仅1.39亿元,只占总营收的38.59%。如今,天津未名作为未名医药最核心的收入来源,又因药品生产不合规被责令整改,未名医药恐面临经营危机。

  

  2025年一季度,中国宏观经济延续了去年四季度以来的温和回升态势。在最新的一季度报告中景顺长城基金总经理助理、股票投资部总监余广分析指出,以DeepSeek为代表的中国科技突破大幅提振市场信心,叠加财政政策前置发力,有效对冲了外部冲击的不确定性,为经济平稳开局提供了重要支撑。 

  生产端平稳增长,内需修复仍需政策加码

  1-2月数据显示,工业增加值和服务业生产指数同比分别增长5.9%和5.6%,新质生产力行业改善显著,生产端的稳健表现为一季度经济“开门红”奠定基础。固定资产投资同比增长4.1%,较去年12月提升1.9个百分点,房地产、基建及制造业投资均有所回暖。消费端受春节效应及“以旧换新”政策拉动,社零总额同比增长4%,消费者信心指数连续三个月回升。 

  房地产方面,热点城市带动拿地回暖,竣工提振投资,但开工仍旧较弱,四季度止跌回稳组合拳带来的销售脉冲正逐步减弱。1-2月全国商品房销售面积同比转负至-5.1%,销售金额同比转负至-2.6%。财政发力带动了金融数据短期向好,1月信贷数据开门红后,2月金融数据则反映政府和非政府相关经济活动仍有分化,信贷需求处于复苏早期。价格水平距离全年物价目标仍有较大距离,指向有效需求仍待进一步提振。

  结构性行情为主,中国股票估值有望进一步扩张

  一季度,A股市场呈现分化行情。沪深300指数与创业板指数分别下跌1.21%和1.77%,而港股市场表现强劲,恒生指数与恒生国企指数分别上涨15.25%和16.83%。余广认为,今年以来的前一阶段,受政策预期回落和消化外部潜在风险后,股市指数回到相对安全的位置。春节后,中国科技的突破以及在制造业方面体现出来的显著优势,推动中国权益资产出现较大的估值修复。但是本轮行情的持续性和幅度最终仍依赖于经济的持续回暖。

  余广指出,下一阶段,宏观经济的不确定性有所上升,不确定性主要源于中美贸易摩擦以及国内逆周期政策加码的强度。预计具体的政策力度会偏积极,对总体的宏观经济基本面保持偏积极态度。后续政策部署将注重稳增长、稳物价,改善通胀水平,财政支出力度有望进一步扩张,针对当前国内有效需求不足的问题促消费、惠民生。

  在政策宽松的背景下,对权益市场持相对积极的判断,结构性行情为主,中国股票估值有望进一步扩张。具体方向上,关注具备成长性、景气度较高的AI产业链(应用和端侧创新);受益于补贴政策的消费类如家电、两轮车等品种;低利率环境下适宜长期资金配置的红利板块。

  在组合配置上,其管理的基金延续保持较高股票仓位,并坚持自下而上精选个股为核心。从中长期的角度,着重于长期基本面,对公司的长期价值进行投资;整体来看,组合在行业配置、个股集中度方面延续了上季度较为分散、均衡的配置。未来仍将调整聚焦于企业核心竞争力、财务健康度及业绩稳定性,重点持有行业龙头公司。

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