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  【导读】突然上涨!

  大家好啊,今晚美股低开高走,突然直线拉升,一起看看发生了什么事情。

  美股突然拉升

  4月24日晚间,美股三大指数低开,随后不断直线拉升,道指涨超280点,纳斯达克指数涨约2%,标普500指数涨超1%!

  有分析称,在权衡特朗普贸易战对美国企业影响的过程中,华尔街投资者押注美联储可能会比预期更早降息以防止经济衰退,从而推动股市上涨。

  股市已连续第三天反弹,市场专业人士押注,如果劳动力市场出现恶化,美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将面临放松货币政策的压力,这一预期也导致美国国债收益率和美元双双下跌。

  在接受采访时,美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示,如果高额关税被重新实施,企业可能会开始裁员,在这种情况下他将支持降息以保护就业市场。克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·哈马克则在接受CNBC采访时表示,如果届时有明确的经济走向证据,美联储最早可能在6月调整利率。

  摩根大通资产管理公司的迈尔斯·布拉德肖在接受采访时表示,特朗普的关税更可能抑制经济增长,而非推高通胀。他预计美国央行最终需要更积极地降息,因为此前政策已维持不变过久。

  他说:“真正起决定性作用的将是经济增长和通胀,这才是真正决定接下来发生什么的关键。”

  英伟达、亚马逊、微软等科技巨头的股价均上涨约2%。

  美联储官员吹“降息风”

  美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒表示,如果特朗普政府重新实施高额关税,企业可能会开始裁员,如果失业率大幅上升,他将支持降息。

  沃勒周四表示:“如果特别是那些大规模关税重新生效,我不会感到惊讶。接下来你可能会看到更多裁员,失业率也会有所上升。一旦我开始看到劳动力市场出现严重恶化,我预计会有更多、更早的降息。”

  沃勒强调,他认为关税在7月之前对经济的影响不会太大,但如果高关税重新生效,之后失业率可能会上升,而且上升速度很快。他重申自己认为关税带来的通胀影响可能只是暂时的。

  这使他与其他一些美联储政策制定者的立场不同,后者警告称较高的关税可能导致持续性通胀,并对美联储维持“最大就业和物价稳定”双重职责之间的平衡构成压力。

  沃勒表示:“我愿意忽略关税导致的价格影响,我不会对我认为由关税引起的通胀上升反应过度,但如果我看到劳动力市场显著恶化,那么出于对就业目标的考虑,我认为我们必须采取行动。”

  在周四另一场采访中,克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·哈马克表示,如果届时有明确的经济走向证据,美联储最早可能在6月调整利率。

  贝丝·哈马克排除了美联储在5月降息的可能性,但表示如果届时对经济走向有明确证据,最早可能在6月采取行动。

  “如果到6月我们有清晰且有说服力的数据,那么我认为你会看到委员会采取行动——前提是我们知道那时该往哪个方向走。”哈马克在被特别问及6月是否可能调整利率时表示。

  哈马克重申,她并未以某种“基本情形”来预测经济最可能的发展路径。她表示,官员们在5月会议前不太可能掌握足够的信息来采取行动,但在后续会议中,一旦获得更多关于经济增长和通胀路径的证据,就可能会有所动作。

  包括哈马克在内的美联储官员已表明,他们倾向在对特朗普总统的移民、贸易和监管政策有更多了解之前,保持利率不变。多位政策制定者指出,目前对于这些政策将如何实施,以及其他国家和企业如何应对,存在高度不确定性。美联储下次会议定于5月6日至7日举行。

  哈马克重申,她认为官员们需要保持耐心,以确保所采取的方向正确。

  她说:“对我而言,现在是我们花时间确保方向正确的好时机。你们也看到,美联储并不害怕在必要时迅速采取行动。”(中国基金报)

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