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  来源:翠鸟资本

  文|翠鸟资本

  2020年12月,风头正盛的蓝月亮集团(6993.HK)公开招股,以13.16港元/股发行计算,直接让创始人罗秋平身家暴增500亿元。与此同时,一路扶持蓝月亮的高瓴资本,也斩获20倍超高收益。蓝月亮成为名副其实的“洗衣液第一股”。

  然而,在这之后,蓝月亮的日子越来越不好过。自上市以来,蓝月亮业绩表现一直不尽如人意:营收增长放缓,净利润连年下滑。2024年更是交出了一份令市场瞠目结舌的年报,这是其上市八年来首次亏损。

  据中华全国商业信息中心统计数据显示,蓝月亮洗衣液连续15年(2009-2023)、洗手液连续12年(2012-2023)位居同类产品市场综合占有率第一。

  渠道方面,2024年蓝月亮线上渠道收入同比激增34.1%至51亿港元,占总营收近60%。其中抖音平台销售额同比增长210%,头部主播专场直播更是频现“亿元俱乐部”。

  从市占率表现来看,蓝月亮集团似乎有着不错的发展,直播带货也很火,但为何却提前进入中年危机,陷入“越卖越亏”的漩涡之中?

  增收不增利

  3月25日,蓝月亮发布业绩,公告显示,2024年公司营收为85.56亿港元(约合人民币79.93亿元),创历史新高,但净利润却暴跌330.5%,亏损7.49亿港元,

  蓝月亮2024年以亏损结束,并不让人感到意外,因为早在半年报时,蓝月亮就亏了6.64亿港元。但经过半年的努力,公司并未挽回亏损的颓势。

  从年报来看,蓝月亮2024年的亏损主要发生在上半年。

  2024全年蓝月亮亏损约7.49亿港元,其中上半年亏损了6.6亿港元,占据全年亏损的88%。亏损的原因是在推广活动和广告上砸了巨资。2024年蓝月亮的销售及分销开支为50.49亿港元,相较2023年的32.44亿港元大幅增长55.6%。

  在业绩公告中,蓝月亮集团表示销售及分销开支大幅增加,是由于大力投入线上线下多渠道的销售活动,尤其是推广新产品、开发新渠道,以及品牌建设等,而这些战略性投入将有助于带动长远的销售增长。

  从结果来看的确如此。

  2024年蓝月亮集团衣物清洁护理产品营收为76.27亿港元(约合人民币71.25亿元),同比增长17.3%;个人清洁护理产品营收为5.12亿港元(约合人民币4.78亿元),同比增长14.6%;家居清洁护理产品营收为4.16亿港元(约合人民币3.89亿元),同比增长10.7%。

  渠道方面,2024年蓝月亮线上渠道收入同比激增34.1%至51亿港元,占总营收近60%。其中抖音平台销售额同比增长210%,头部主播专场直播更是频现“亿元俱乐部”。

  2024年上半年,蓝月亮在抖音上开启了多次声势浩大的直播,与“董先生”、、“祝晓晗”、“与辉同行”等多个头部抖音达人合作专场。其中,“广东夫妇”在6月30日的蓝月亮专场中,卖出了80多万单蓝月亮至尊爆款组合,销售额约7500万至1.2亿元,打破了截止当日的抖音平台家清单场直播GMV纪录。

  大手笔带来的营销效果十分显著,直接将蓝月亮带进了“抖音商城618衣物清洁榜”行业累计销售额Top1。之后8月央视新闻超级品牌日直播、9月抖音平台中秋超级月亮节直播,蓝月亮悉数现身。在头部主播上,蓝月亮还和东方甄选、小杨哥等合作直播卖货。

  只是,耀眼的GMV背后,蓝月亮开销也不小,以至于本身坐拥的高毛利润被吞噬。财报显示,2024年蓝月亮毛利率稳定在60%,但销售费用几乎吃掉了全部毛利(51.8亿港元利)。

  这意味着,蓝月亮正面临增收不增利的窘境,似乎通过大举砸钱疯狂营销,做大销售规模,而忽视了净利润。

  其实不止是2024年,自2020年上市以来,蓝月亮这种畸形的增长模式直接让业绩表现一直不尽如人意:营收增长放缓,净利润连年下滑。梳理年报显示,2020-2023年,蓝月亮的营收分别为64.23亿元、69.73亿元、72.91亿元、67.18亿元,同期实现归母净利润分别为12.01亿元、9.31亿元、5.61亿元、2.98亿元。

  与此同时,2020年上市元年,蓝月亮销售及分销开支占营收的比重为28.8%,不到三成,2024年已经达到59%,占比翻番。

  两大难题待解

  蓝月亮“花钱赚吆喝买增长”的运营模式,暴露出的绝非表面问题。

  从深层次来看,业务面临两大棘手难题:一是收入结构过度单一,缺乏多元支撑;二是产品力严重不足,难以凭借产品自身优势,在激烈的市场竞争中建立起稳固的竞争壁垒。

  从蓝月亮2024年的收入结构看,公司89.1%的营收仍集中于衣物清洁护理单一品类(如洗衣液、柔顺剂等),而该领域技术同质化严重,竞争激烈。

  目前蓝月亮在洗衣液领域市占率仍居第一,但是打江山不易,守江山更难,随着立白、奥妙、碧浪、汰渍等品牌也在纷纷抢占洗衣液市场份额,蓝月亮接下来能否稳住生意份额,尚是未知。

  与此同时,蓝月亮研发费用投入与国际巨头已形成超百倍差距。2021-2024年,蓝月亮研发费用均未超过1亿港元(约合人民币0.9亿元)。反观国际巨头宝洁,通过每年约30亿美元研发投入构建技术护城河。

  很明显,蓝月亮产品结构的单一,加之技术壁垒的缺失,大部分消费者不会因为是蓝月亮品牌而支付高溢价。而近年蓝月亮不得不加大营销开支维稳市场份额。从冠名央视《品牌行动》栏目以及地方台湖南卫视等电视节目,到投放电梯、KV、小红书等全渠道媒体,再到借助明星网红直播带货,以此吸引大众移开的目光。

  只不过,始终期待着大力出奇迹的蓝月亮,虽在销售额上实现了增长,但现实的不赚钱状态却始终没能扭转,甚至来到了亏损的深渊。

  更严峻是,如今扭转亏损只是蓝月亮面临的紧迫难题之一。从当下日化行业的竞争来看,家清日化行业入局门槛低、产品同质化严重、白牌厂家飞速增长等,无一不表明,留给洗衣液一哥蓝月亮的时间,只会比财报数字更残酷。

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