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关税从1%提升到125%,飞机和零部件进口体系承压

文|《财经》记者王静仪实习生蒋瑛芙

编辑|施智梁

自2025年4月12日起,中国对原产于美国的进口商品加征125%的关税。

对于航空业来说,原关税税率为1%-5%,加征后综合税率可能升至126%-130%,中国企业进口美国飞机和零部件的成本陡然升高,为波音公司对华飞机交付蒙上阴影。

据中华人民共和国海关总署统计数据显示,2024年1月-12月,中国进口的直升机、飞机及其零部件总额约为121.67亿美元,其中自美国进口金额达62.08亿美元,占比达51%。

“关税对航空的影响是很大的,涉及整机、零备件和维修。飞机运营规程中不断有零备件的更换、修理需求,发动机、APU(辅助动力系统)、起落架等都要不断维修。”一位航空业资深从业者对《财经》表示。

波音公司的737、777和787等机型,一直是中国航空公司的主力,在2018年的鼎盛时期,波音是对中国出口最大的美国公司,中国是其最重要的出口市场。美国制造的湾流公务机,也在中国高端商务航空市场具有重要地位。

在发动机方面,美国通用航空航天、普惠、霍尼韦尔等都有很高的市场份额。中国每年还从美国大量进口关键航材,例如高温合金叶片、航空电子设备及复合材料结构件,用于整机维护及维修。

关税战愈演愈烈,作为全球化程度极高且对国际政策变化高度敏感的关键行业,航空业所受影响尤为显著。

4月13日,中国商务部新闻发言人就美方豁免部分产品的“对等关税”答记者问中表示,中方对中美经贸关系的立场是一贯的。贸易战没有赢家,保护主义没有出路。中国有句古话,“解铃还须系铃人”,敦促美方正视国际社会和国内各方理性声音,在纠错方面迈出一大步,彻底取消“对等关税”的错误做法,回到相互尊重,通过平等对话解决分歧的正确道路上来。

波音飞机首当其冲

作为中美航空贸易的“风向标”,波音公司正承受着前所未有的压力。

中国是波音公司的重要客户源,根据航班管家提供给《财经》的数据,截至2025年3月,全波音机队的航司就有14家,主要为山东航空、上海航空、中国联合航空、昆明航空等航司,厦门航空波音机队占比达到了90.2%,海南航空波音机队占比达到84.5%。

基于新增关税,波音对华交付前景不明朗。此前据媒体报道,吉祥航空原计划在约三周后接收一架价值1.2亿美元的波音787-9“梦想客机”,关税战升级后,吉祥航空决定推迟接收。

据机队数据商Cirium统计,波音今年已向中国交付20架飞机,计划年底前再交付29架。2025年-2027年间,中国三大航——中国国航(601111.SH)、中国东航(600115.SH)、南方航空(600029.SH),计划三年分别接收45架、53架和81架波音飞机。

新关税迫使国内航司重新审视此前的一些机队安排策略。南航原计划将10架波音787-8飞机挂牌出售,这是公司旗下的所有787-8机队,机龄只有10年就提前“退休”。但在4月10日中国对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税125%的最新政策开始实施的第二天,南航在上海联合产权交易所发布了中止交易的公告。

在此之前,中国航司购买波音宽体机的关税税率是1%,窄体机是5%。关税形势变化太快,航空公司必须谨慎评估。

“航空是资金密集型长周期产业,很难或者不适合做短期的调整,特别是机队资源。基于目前关税政策的不稳定性,只能密切观察。”有从业者对《财经》表示。

波音从1973年开始向中国交付飞机,入华五十多年里,波音在鼎盛时期每年建造的新飞机中有20%都交付给中国客户。

波音的中国业务在2018年达到巅峰。当年,中国市场接收了波音四分之一的新飞机,其中包括181架单通道737以及20多架宽体机。波音在浙江舟山建立了一座工厂,用于安装客舱内饰并交付飞机。

针对新增关税,民航业内人士林智杰分析,国内的航空公司可通过寻找替代来源等方式,或者延迟运力的引进来应对。

具体而言,航司可以调整飞机引进模式,短期可能优先通过租赁的方式替代购买,长期则会更倾向于订购空客或者国产飞机。

不过对于空客来说,短期内也无法交付更多飞机。由于供应链紧张,当前飞机市场供不应求,波音和空客2030年前的窄体机机位都已售空。

这也给了国产C919飞机更多的机会。2024年,中国商飞公司一共向国有三大航交付了12架C919,其中东航6架,国航和南航各3架。预计明年可以达到30架的年产量,后续还需要加快交付。

欧洲最大的廉价航空瑞安航空的CEO(首席执行官)奥利里近日表示,如果中国制造的C919飞机价格能够具有竞争力,他们将毫不犹豫地下单采购。

零部件体系承压

除了整机进口,关税对于飞机零部件产业的影响更为深远。

因为大型飞机的制造无法由任何单一国家独立完成,一架飞机的零部件供应链往往遍布全球。源于飞机航材生产所需的高技术要求和严格的适航认证标准,导致飞机航材具有高度不可替代性。

飞机零部件的生产属于典型的高端制造业,需要尖端的设计仿真、材料技术和加工工艺加持,具有很高的技术壁垒;航空器及其零部件的生产制造需要遵循一套严格且繁琐的适航认证体系标准,“外行们”即使具备等同的技术能力,也必须经过漫长的取证过程。

即便是看似普通的螺栓,也因材料特殊、工艺复杂及标准严苛,而由少数几家企业垄断。一台发动机可能因为缺失一颗看似不起眼的螺栓而交付延期,继而导致整个飞机供应链的大震荡。

航空自媒体航旅圈报道,一家使用全空客机型的中国航司核算,因为中国对美国商品加征关税,公司一个月的成本将上升8000万元,因为也有不少航材(包括发动机)来自美国,并且核心部件很难找到替代方。

再以中国制造的大飞机C919为例,作为中国自主研发的大型客机,它与波音、空客一样,其供应链高度依赖全球合作,很多关键零部件来自美国及西方国家的供应商。

C919的发动机是由美国通用电气航空与法国赛峰飞机引擎公司联合研制的LEAP-X1C型涡扇发动机。航电系统由霍尼韦尔(美国)、通用电气(美国)等提供关键航电设备、同时还大量使用美国等国家生产的铝材、复合材料及精密部件等。

更复杂的是双重关税的潜在威胁。

一架飞机集成300万-500万个零配件,涉及上千家供应商,且零部件多次跨境流动,这使得确定应税价值非常困难。关税加征会导致通关流程更复杂、时间更长、运营成本更高,进而影响项目的整体节奏与交付周期。

波音在中国有35家直接供应商,波音787飞机的方向舵来自中国的成飞公司,这些零部件要运载到美国西雅图的波音工厂完成组装,再出口到中国,面临“双重关税”的风险。

美国此次关税政策,还包括了对航空原材料铝和钢铁的征收。美国铝材加工所需的纯铝主要依赖于加拿大等国家进口,此举加征措施,将直接推高航空制造业的原材料成本。而飞机原始设备制造商、航空结构供应商和易碎次级供应商将是主要的付款人,且美国工厂可能不得不承担部分涨价。于美国本土航空业而言也是一次巨大的冲击,得不偿失。

基于这样的逻辑,连总部位于美国的达美航空都表示,目前仅计划接收2025年交付的10架飞机,且全部来自空客,并且不会为任何飞机交付支付加码的关税。

在美国国内,航空业界正呼吁政府豁免关税以减轻负担。3月12日,美国航空业的主要组织和公司,包括美国航空协会(A4A)、通用航空制造商协会和美国商务航空协会(NBAA),联合致信美国商务部和交通运输部负责人以及美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔,要求将航空航天业排除在关税政策之外。

美国航空航天工业协会国际事务副总裁达克·哈德威克表示,这些关税将颠覆近半个世纪以来基本免税的航空航天贸易,征税导致的价格上涨将不得不由飞机或发动机制造商、仍然脆弱的供应链或最终消费者来承担。

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