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  美国国债周五午后走高,连续第二周上涨,几乎收复了本月的失地,迹象显示特朗普政府正在采取措施缓和贸易紧张局势。

  截至纽约时间下午3点后不久,美国国债收益率全线下跌多达5个基点,收益率收于日间低点附近。

  本周美债上涨的同时,美元和美股也反弹,在特朗普4月2日宣布“对等关税”后主导华尔街的“卖出美国”情绪势头减弱。美国政府已暂停部分关税并暗示可能寻求缓和。

  一些投资者对追涨较长期美债仍持谨慎态度。30年期美债周五一度削减涨幅,受部分交易员大量抛售6月到期的超长期国债期货影响。

  美国银行策略师预计较长期债券将继续跑输,这反映出对经济增长放缓和通胀上升的预期以及对供需状况的担忧。MarkCabana等策略师本周调整了年末收益率预测。他们把对2025年底30年期国债收益率的预测从4.8%上调至4.9%,并把对年底2年期国债收益率的预测从4%下调至3.75%。

  摩根资产管理全球固定收益主管BobMichele说美联储关于降息可能性的言论是推动债券市场回升的因素之一。他指出,杠杆债券交易的平仓已经基本结束,同时特朗普政府在贸易冲突方面有所缓和,这两点也对债市形成了支撑。

  Michele表示,“所有这些因素带来了平静,现在促使债券市场转向。”

  截至纽约时间下午3:03,2年期国债收益率下跌3.9个基点,报3.7582%;

  5年期国债收益率下跌5.4个基点,报3.8819%;

  10年期国债收益率下跌5.1个基点,报4.2643%;

  30年期国债收益率下跌4.2个基点,报4.7338%;

  5年和30年期国债收益率差上升约1.2个基点,报85.01个基点;

  2年和10年期国债收益率差下降约1.2个基点,报50个基点。

  美联储在周五发布的报告中指出了与股票和房地产估值相关的风险,表示尽管有些市场本月早些时候下跌,但资产价格仍明显高企。

  “即使在近期下跌之后,目前股价相较于盈利预测仍显偏高,分析师调整盈利预测的速度慢于市场价格。各期限美国国债收益率仍处于2008年以来的较高水平。”

  美联储还在《金融稳定报告》强调了该领域的杠杆问题,指出融资风险令人担忧,但也表示,融资市场在4月初的波动中保持坚韧。该报告反映了截至4月11日的市况和数据。

  这份报告不是预测性报告,其指出,对一些银行而言,固定利率资产的公允价值损失规模仍比较大,继续对利率变化高度敏感。

  央行的市场、研究和学术界联系渠道还提及围绕全球贸易的担忧上升。他们还提及有关政策不确定性和美国债务可持续性的风险。

  “一些受访者还把持续的通胀和资产市场回调视为突出风险,”报告称。美联储指出,这些反馈大多是在4月2日之前收到。

  据知情人士透露,特朗普政府起草了一套谈判框架,用于应对那些急于达成协议以避免关税上调的贸易伙伴。

  不具名消息人士称,根据这份蓝图,美国谈判代表将采用一套模板,列出双方共同关切的领域以指导谈判进程。这些领域包括关税、非关税壁垒、数字贸易、经济安全以及商业问题。

  美国计划每周接待若干国家的谈判代表,分批推进磋商。知情人士补充称,该框架仍可能调整,且美方官员可能就部分国家提出额外议题。

  根据报道,美国计划在三周内以轮换方式与大约18个国家展开磋商,每周安排六国,直至截止日期。

  美国贸易代表办公室在一份声明中表示,“目前正按照一个有组织的、严谨的框架快速推进,与有意向的贸易伙伴展开谈判。”

  声明补充称:“特朗普总统和贸易代表办公室已经明确了美方目标,各贸易伙伴对各自可以提供的条件也已有充分了解。贸易代表办公室已收到数十份来自各国的实质性提案,旨在实现与美国的公平和对等贸易。”

  韩国代表团本周早些时候已与美方进行了磋商,特朗普周五向记者表示,与日本“非常接近”达成协议。

  当地时间4月25日,美国国务院通过其领事事务局,向试图以“生育旅游”为目的持旅游签证入境美国的外国人发出警告。美国务院强调,此类行为违反了美国移民法,是“不可接受的”,领事官员正在积极识别并拒绝与此类行为相关的签证申请。

  此外,美国务院警告称,利用移民制度进行生育旅游的个人可能会面临严重的长期后果,以这种方式滥用移民制度的人可能会失去未来签证或前往美国的资格。(央视记者刘骁骞)

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  今年1月,中国平安旗下陆金所控股(下称“陆控”,LU.N;06623.HK)与其前任审计师罗兵咸永道及普华永道中天(统称“普华永道”)因疑似关联交易事项“分手”之后,陆控在香港联交所停牌至今,后续走向亦引发市场关注。

  而近日陆控披露的一份公告则使该公司与普华永道之间矛盾的核心——关联交易事项的独立调查结果及后续处理浮出水面。

  公告披露的调查结果显示,陆控的相关关联交易情形确实存在,但交易目的与普华永道所指并不相同。不过,陆控确未履行上市规则规定的关联交易必要程序,会计入账亦存在问题。陆控表示将采取追偿安排、优化董事会及管理层架构等措施进一步强化内控。在这些措施下,陆控将同时更换董事长及CFO人选。同时,陆控董事会建议委任安永为继任审计师,重审2022及2023年度财报并完成2024年及2025年度的审计工作。

  关联交易独立调查结果披露

  此前,陆控于1月27日发布的建议更换审计师普华永道的公告内容显示,普华永道发函陆控称,在去年10月与陆控一名时任高管的口头交流中获悉疑似关联交易信息,认为相关事项值得关注,并要求陆控委任专家展开独立调查。最终由于陆控审计委员会决定不向普华永道知会其独立调查结果等原因,普华永道称对陆控2022年及2023年度财务报表的审计意见以及2024年所进行的任何工作均不得加以倚赖。同时,普华永道也被陆控董事会建议免任。至此,陆控与普华永道的矛盾被摆上台面。

  而在近日的公告中,针对上述关联交易事项的独立调查结果得以披露。该独立调查由陆控委聘的国际律所以及国际咨询公司法证会计师等组成的调查团队进行。

  调查结果信息显示,从2023年5月至2024年1月,陆控通过子公司投资于一家非关联信托公司设立及管理的若干信托产品,而这些信托受陆控指示向若干其关联实体购买了若干资产。

  普华永道认为,陆控的这些信托投资是用于补偿公司关联实体在先前与陆控的某些交易中蒙受的损失。而根据独立调查结果,陆控进行交易的目的是通过这些信托回购私募投资基金产品的相关底层资产,用于赔偿若干零售投资者的投资损失。“陆控子公司曾参与向该等零售投资者销售投资产品,而当投资产品出现金钱亏损时,该等零售投资者要求赔偿其投资损失,因此本公司进行了上述交易。”陆控在公告中表示。

  但陆控在公告中亦承认,根据上市规则,上述交易中的关联实体为其关联人士,上述交易构成公司的关联交易,须遵守上市规则中相关的公告、申报及独立股东批准规定。然而,陆控并未履行这些必要程序。此外,相关信托在入账时存在差错,使得其账面值并未反映目标资产的公允价值,这将影响陆控的利润及权益净额。

  这对财报影响的金额会有多大?根据陆控董事会目前预估,经会计调整后,2022年末,合并资产总值预计将增加不超过0.5%;而截至2023年12月31日止财政年度的合并资产总值预计将减少不超过2%,合并净利润预计将减少8%至15%(即0.83亿元至1.55亿元)。上述预估数字还待继任审计师审计后确定。

  在陆控董事会建议免任普华永道之后,陆控2022年及2023年的年报需要重新审计,延迟刊发的2024年年度业绩亦急需完成审计工作。公告显示,董事会建议委任安永会计师事务所及安永华明会计师事务所(特殊普通合伙)(统称“安永”)为陆控继任审计师,以填补免任普华永道后的空缺。普华永道的免任及安永的聘任均待6月召开的股东特别大会批准。

  董事长及CFO双双更换

  基于此次独立调查结果以及进一步提升公司治理架构的目的,陆控的管理层将出现较大变动。

  除了被陆控界定为上述关联交易主要责任人员的前任陆控首席执行官计葵生及前任首席财务官徐兆感已分别于2024年11月及2024年4月离职之外,陆控的董事长及继任CFO亦双双更换。

  公告显示,陆控董事会决议委任78岁的叶迪奇为独立非执行董事兼董事长,赵容奭将不再担任董事长,但继续担任公司首席执行官和执行董事。陆控表示,此项变动将区分首席执行官与董事长的角色,以符合上市规则的要求,同时进一步加强董事会的独立性。

  另外,陆控董事会亦委任席通专为首席财务官、执行董事和授权代表,而接替徐兆感成为陆控首席财务官的朱培卿则于4月23日辞任。

  公开资料显示,叶迪奇和席通专皆拥有丰富的金融行业管理经验。而在他们的履历中,平安皆有浓墨重彩的一笔。其中,叶迪奇曾于2002年至2005年担任中国平安集团及平安银行的董事职务,并自2019年至2021年担任平安壹账通银行(香港)有限公司创始董事会主席。席通专更是从平安银行零售副总监的位置上被委任至陆控,在此之前,席通专曾在平安集团战略发展中心和集团企划部担任副总监及其他职务,同时亦曾任中国平安旗下金融壹账通战略分析总监。

  除了调整董事会及管理层架构之外,陆控在公告中表示拟聘请独立内控顾问就公司改善其内部监控系统及程序提供意见,并已在董事会及管理层的层面分别成立了临时特别委员会及临时执行委员会实施内部监控系统提升。

  另外,公告显示,陆控透过相关信托已支付13.7亿元回购相关资产,以赔偿购买投资产品的零售投资者的投资损失。对此,陆控已与同样参与销售投资产品的关联方达成协议,按照关联方70%与陆控30%的比例共同承担这部分投资损失。根据后续安排,陆控将依据相关资产的最终公允价值,与已支付金额之间的差额,按约定比例向关联方追偿。

  贷款余额下降,逾期率有所改善

  陆控主要在中国境内从事面向借款人和机构的核心零售信贷赋能业务。从近两年公司的业绩情况来看,一直处于主营业务规模收缩的态势。陆控在最新的公告中披露的去年四季度及今年一季度未经审计的经营情况中,仍然延续了这种趋势。

  披露数据显示,截至2024年末,陆控尚未偿还总贷款余额为2169亿元,同比下降31.2%。而截至今年一季度末,这一科目余额进一步下降为2039亿元。

  但由于消费金融这一新增长点的带动,陆控的新增贷款总额有所好转。披露数据显示,陆控2024年第四季度所赋能新增贷款总额为694亿元,同比增加47.6%;今年一季度则为573亿元,同比增加19.1%,其中消费金融新增贷款304亿元,同比增幅高达50%。

  同时,陆控的贷款逾期率亦有改善迹象。披露数据显示,陆控已赋能贷款总额(不包括消费金融子公司)的30天以上逾期率从去年三季度末的5.2%降至去年底的4.8%,今年一季度末进一步降至4.5%;而90天以上逾期率则在上述3个财报期末一路从3.2%降至2.9%,再降至2.6%。

  不过,公告披露的财务数据并未提及陆控利润表现。从去年未经审计的三季报来看,陆控去年前三季度总收入与净利润均出现大幅下滑,其中总收入降幅超过30%,净利润更是同比由盈转亏,单季净亏损超过7亿元,前三季度累计亏损22.85亿元。

  (本文来自第一财经)

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