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  4月17日,睿远基金旗下基金发布2025年一季报,傅鹏博、饶刚、赵枫等知名基金经理持仓变化曝光。

  傅鹏博表示,一季度布局了受益于国内人工智能、汽车电子快速发展的PCB个股;加大了恒生科技板块的个股配置;在医药板块,以“多品种多赛道”的策略,在原有个股基础上增加了部分公司,如医疗器械龙头公司。傅鹏博认为,未来,房地产调整周期结束以及私人部门资产负债表修复,工业企业利润增长或重拾向上趋势,资本市场或迎来从“科技牛”的局部行情到多点开花的局面。

  赵枫则在一季度减仓了部分科技股和港股,加仓了一些顺周期及金融板块个股。赵枫认为,经过一季度的估值回升后,市场的股权风险溢价水平下降到相对合理的水平。如果宏观经济在今年能够稳定增长,相对其他资产类别回报,权益类资产的隐含长期回报的吸引力仍然较高。但是也有一批因为主题概念而股价大幅上涨的公司,其估值已经很难用基本面评估,出现了相当的估值泡沫。

  此外,几位基金经理均在一季报中表达了对近期“对等关税”可能会产生的影响的看法,傅鹏博认为,今年,新一轮内需刺激政策的力度和广度值得期待。随着2024年报和2025年一季报披露,将寻找基本面触底反转,以及景气度向上的公司。

  赵枫认为,伴随着外部环境的变化和投资者预期的波动,二季度市场表现也许会比较颠簸,但结合当前的估值水平和较为宽裕的政策空间,中国权益资产的价格存在较为坚实的基本面支撑,对全年表现仍可保持乐观。

  饶刚表示,外部冲击既是挑战,也是我国调整国内经济结构的重要机遇,消费作为经济增长主动力和压舱石的角色将逐步巩固和夯实。对比中美两国,当前我国在股市估值水平、地产周期位置、通胀约束、财政空间等多个维度上呈现出更强的韧性和更大的空间,政策取向的一致性也将帮助我国较好抵御外需的冲击。

  傅鹏博:资本市场或迎来从“科技牛”的局部行情到多点开花的局面

  作为睿远基金的明星产品,傅鹏博、朱璘共同管理的睿远成长价值,截至一季度末,基金规模为184.3亿元。

  一季度,该基金保持高仓位运行,前十大重仓股中,新进重仓了胜宏科技、寒武纪-u,舜宇光学科技、新宙邦退出,此外,中国移动、巨星科技被大幅减持,腾讯控股、三诺生物略有增持。截至一季度末,该基金前十大重仓股为腾讯控股、宁德时代、中国移动、立讯精密、胜宏科技、广汇能源、寒武纪、巨星科技、迈为股份、三诺生物。

  “我们布局了受益于国内人工智能、汽车电子快速发展的PCB个股,公司的高阶产品量产、制造良率不断提高,对组合的贡献较为突出。我们加大了恒生科技板块的个股配置,有稳健的品种,也有弹性大的品种,对组合净值有不小的正贡献。在医药板块,以多品种多赛道的策略,在原有个股基础上增加了部分公司,如医疗器械龙头公司,如将人工智能和传统医学结合提升治疗效果、提高患者触达的公司,如有特色的创新药公司。国产替代方面,如涉及芯片领域的个股,也加大了配置。组合中的光学和光电产学研一体化公司、智能驾驶配件类公司等依旧在列,依旧看好发展前景。传统能源和光伏能源个股在一季度表现不佳,对组合产生了较多的负贡献。”傅鹏博在一季报中如是表示了调仓思路。

  一季报中,傅鹏博表达了对目前宏观经济和资本市场的看法。具体来看,宏观经济方面,从已公布的3月经济数据看,PMI平稳向上,暂时缓和了市场对中小企业经营、建筑业节后复工的担忧。2月CPI和PPI的同比表现低于市场一致预期,春节错月是主要影响因素,且工业活动处于淡季。政府工作报告将CPI涨幅设定在2%,隐含着通胀水平处于筑底缓慢回升阶段,有效需求恢复尚需财政和货币继续发力。从短期看,居民贷款意愿不高,储蓄意愿偏高,制约了下游需求的好转。未来,房地产调整周期结束以及私人部门资产负债表修复,工业企业利润增长或重拾向上趋势,资本市场或迎来从“科技牛”的局部行情到多点开花的局面。

  从资本市场表现看,科技是一季度最明确的交易主线。宇树机器人亮相春晚,DeepSeek以高性能、低成本的大语言模型赋能人工智能,推动了技术的普惠化。民营企业家座谈会的重要讲话再次点燃了市场情绪,提升了风险偏好。此外,各地推出的生育补贴政策一度引发了消费股投资热情,虽然持续性远不如科技板块,但也为春季躁动行情添上一丝亮色。

  展望二季度,A股市场已经迎来了美国贸易关税加征的风暴。4月第二个交易周,全球股市波动极大。政府对此有足够的应对预案、有足够的对冲工具化解出口锐减的压力。这次“危”会转化为“机”,推动一系列改革,如提振内需,以国内消费市场带动经济增长。去年四季度,国内消费补贴政策的推出,带动了消费板块表现。今年,新一轮内需刺激政策的力度和广度值得期待。随着2024年年报和2025年一季报披露,我们将寻找基本面触底反转,以及景气度向上的公司。我们将动态调整组合,应对市场短期波动,努力控制好净值的回撤。

  赵枫:中国权益资产的价格存在较为坚实的基本面支撑,对全年表现仍可保持乐观

  赵枫管理的睿远均衡价值三年,截至一季度末,该基金合计规模为120.55亿元。

  一季度,赵枫略微减持了腾讯控股、中国移动、小米集团-w,加仓山西汾酒、中国太保等顺周期及金融板块个股。截至一季度末,睿远均衡价值三年前十大重仓股分别为腾讯控股、宁德时代、中国移动、小米集团-W、伟明环保、中国太保、山西汾酒、分众传媒、万华化学、三诺生物。

  赵枫在睿远均衡价值三年一季报中表示,今年一季度中国权益类资产表现出现明显分化。A股宽基指数表现平平,但与AI、机器人和半导体相关的个股表现活跃,市场情绪明显好转。香港市场表现优秀,恒生指数一季度涨幅超过15%,恒生科技指数涨幅超过20%,美国市场中概股也出现明显上涨。一季度中国资产的上涨,既有偶然因素也有必然因素。DeepSeek在AI大模型领域的成就提振了投资者对中国科技实力的信心,进而推动相关的科技公司和互联网公司估值回升。而之前中国资产的估值过低,本次上涨也是对之前过度悲观预期的修正。

  经过一季度的估值回升后,市场的股权风险溢价水平下降到相对合理的水平。如果宏观经济在今年能够稳定增长,相对其他资产类别回报,权益类资产的隐含长期回报的吸引力仍然较高。但是也有一批因为主题概念而股价大幅上涨的公司,其估值已经很难用基本面评估,出现了相当的估值泡沫。

  宏观经济面上,目前也看到了经济启稳回升的趋势。房地产市场下跌势头已明显减缓,一线城市房价有所启稳,核心地段土地拍卖升温预示部分置换需求已经见底回升。地方债务、鼓励消费、民营企业经营环境等投资者关心的问题也都有相应的政策措施,在积极的财政政策支持下,宏观经济有望在年内出现积极的变化,从而使得股市进一步上涨具备基本面支持。

  但市场总是风云莫测。近期美国推出“对等关税”震惊全球,全球经济出现衰退的概率大幅上升,全球股市均出现大幅下跌。从最终目标看,美国寻求制造业回归和实现一定程度的财政和赤字平衡是本届政府的重要目标,为实现此目标不惜牺牲短期经济稳定,未来一段时间金融市场将不得不面对由此带来的不确定性和波动。不过中国具备完整的产业基础和巨大的内需市场,经济已有相当的内循环基础,内需仍有较大的增长空间;即使对美出口出现明显下降,中国制造业竞争力也使得中国仍可以在非美国家继续获得市场份额,减少对美出口下降的冲击。伴随着外部环境的变化和投资者预期的波动,二季度市场表现也许会比较颠簸,但结合当前的估值水平和较为宽裕的政策空间,我们认为中国权益资产的价格存在较为坚实的基本面支撑,对全年表现仍可保持乐观。

  饶刚:当前我国股市在多个维度上呈现出更强的韧性和更大的空间

  作为一只偏债混合型基金,睿远稳进配置两年持有混合一季度的权益投资占比约为30%,权益仓位方面,前十大重仓股分别为中国移动、腾讯控股、宁德时代、伟明环保、思源电气、小米集团-W、阿里巴巴-w、中国平安、三峰环境、中国太保。截至一季度末,该基金规模为54.30亿元。

  睿远稳进配置两年持有基金经理饶刚、侯振新在一季报中分析了该基金的资产配置,其中,股票方面,相对均衡的配置思路依然延续,基于稳健基本面和较高估值性价比配置的港股互联网龙头受益于DeepSeek,在一季度为组合做出了显著的贡献;转债方面,继续持有低估值的债性转债品种为主,例如纯债收益率较高且估值保护较充分的金融类公司的转债、新能源类公司的转债等,并在金融类转债持续上涨的过程中适当兑现部分收益,整体上相较上个季度转债仓位略有下行。纯债方面,考虑到年初收益率曲线的绝对水平已经处于历史低点,从大类资产比价角度债券资产并不占优,因此整体上一季度本基金延续了中性的久期和杠杆,主要通过一二级利差策略、券种利差策略等方式小幅增厚了持有收益。

  展望后市,“对等关税”的出台对于全球经济秩序形成了巨大冲击,并传导至全球金融市场的动荡。从短期来看,“对等关税”的生效并不是终点,由此展开的一系列谈判和博弈可能导致市场的波动远大于趋势,从而使得短期宏观预测的置信度偏低。此时更为理性的做法是脱离短期事件催化的边际定价,将视野回归长期。尽管短期内关税的加码不可避免地对我国出口造成负面影响,但外部冲击既是挑战,也是我国调整国内经济结构的重要机遇,消费作为经济增长主动力和压舱石的角色将逐步巩固和夯实。对比中美两国,当前我国在股市估值水平、地产周期位置、通胀约束、财政空间等多个维度上呈现出更强的韧性和更大的空间,政策取向的一致性也将帮助我国较好抵御外需的冲击。

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  郑煤机(00564)发布公告,该公司董事会于2025年4月17日举行的董事会会议上审议通过了《郑州煤矿机械集团股份有限公司2025年员工持股计划》。

  本次员工持股计划旨在进一步完善公司法人治理结构,建立和完善劳动者与所有者的利益共享、风险共担机制,有效地将股东、上市公司和核心管理团队三方利益相结合,充分调动公司员工的积极性和创造力,增强员工的凝聚力,进一步提高公司治理水平和竞争力,促进公司长期、持续、健康发展,确保公司未来发展战略和经营目标的实现。

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