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  记者今天从中国人民银行了解到,2024年中国境内和马来西亚跨境人民币业务收付金额超3000亿元,在全部东盟国家中排名第二位,同比增速达29%;其中货物贸易跨境人民币收付金额超1000亿元,同比增长16%,占同期中马货物贸易本外币跨境收付的比重为24%。2025年一季度中马跨境人民币业务收付金额为1020亿元,同比增长27%。

  马来西亚与我国经贸联系密切,中国已经连续16年成为马来西亚第一大贸易伙伴。多年来,中国人民银行立足中马跨境贸易投资实际需要,不断推进两国金融领域务实合作,同马来西亚国家银行一道,共同为双边本币结算创造良好的政策环境,促进提升双边贸易投资本币使用水平。在中国人民银行和马来西亚国家银行的密切合作和政策支持下,中马双边本币结算业务快速发展。

  中国人民银行表示,未来将继续完善跨境人民币使用政策,为两国经营主体使用人民币进行跨境贸易投资结算提供更加便利、友好的环境。(总台央视记者孙艳)

  特朗普关税打乱经济预期,美联储政策风暴将至,内部激辩“保就业”还是“控通胀”。

  来源:金十数据

  美联储官员一致认为,特朗普的对等关税政策动摇了他们对经济方向的判断,可能导致一场激烈的内部辩论——如何在通胀与就业目标之间取得平衡,并制定正确的货币政策应对措施。

  自特朗普宣布并暂缓一系列全球进口关税以来,包括主席鲍威尔在内的美联储官员已承认,他们可能被迫做出艰难选择:是确保通胀受控(尽管关税可能推高价格),还是优先支持就业(面对家庭和企业普遍的不确定性以及需求疲软,经济增长正在放缓)。这一政策分歧可能在未来几周或几个月内显现,目前美联储得以维持利率不变,直到特朗普的最终决定及其对就业、物价和经济前景的影响更加明朗。

  即将公布的数据预计将显示通胀疲软,这源于去年年底形成的住房和服务业趋势;而另一方面,消费者在关税生效前抢购汽车、电脑等进口商品,推动了短期增长和就业。然而,当鲍威尔周三更新经济展望时,他和同僚们对美国乃至全球经济方向的判断似乎正变得更加模糊,而非清晰。

  近日,美联储决策者提出了多种可能情景,包括通过大幅降息以挽救经济衰退,或维持紧缩货币政策以遏制通胀并防止公众对其控价能力失去信心。美联储理事沃勒周一表示:“新的关税政策是几十年来对美国经济的最大冲击之一。”如果特朗普实施所有已宣布的关税(包括目前暂缓的部分),“其对产出和就业的影响可能更持久,并成为决定货币政策立场的重要因素。如果经济放缓严重甚至威胁衰退,我倾向于更早、更大幅度地降息。”

  其他官员则主张采取观望态度,等待数据明确方向。还有人强调政策应偏向控制通胀,担心任何其他做法都可能削弱公众对美联储的信任,导致通胀预期上升,最终迫使更激进的应对措施。

  这场辩论标志着美联储的倒退。去年,随着年通胀率逐渐回落至2%,失业率稳定在或低于充分就业水平(约4.2%),后疫情时代的“软着陆”似乎触手可及。如今,讨论重新回到“牺牲比率”——即需要多少失业率才能抑制通胀。市场波动加剧,金融环境收紧可能抑制经济活动。美联储的讲话再次提到通胀预期的重要性,甚至提及前主席沃尔克几十年前通过高压利率和经济衰退遏制通胀的旧事。

  根据当前政策框架,美联储的决策表面上取决于通胀和失业两大目标中哪一个偏离轨道更远、更难修复。但内部对风险的看法可能存在巨大分歧:数据解读不同,对如何分配解决问题成本的测算也不同——如果通胀风险更大,则容忍更高失业率;如果就业和增长严重下滑,则承受更高通胀的风险。

  麻省理工学院斯隆管理学院经济学教授、英国央行前利率制定委员会成员克里斯汀·福布斯(KristinForbes)表示,鉴于近期与通胀的斗争,美联储应优先保持价格稳定。“在后疫情通胀期间,工资跟不上物价上涨的人承受了痛苦。政策制定者在考虑未来路径时,不仅要权衡通胀和就业的变化,还需考量对物价水平和生活成本的影响。”

  EvercoreISI副董事长、全球政策与央行策略主管克里希纳·古哈(KrishnaGuha)指出,对政策制定者而言,重要的不仅是未来通胀和失业的水平,还包括其预期持续时间——这一判断将部分依赖于动荡环境下的预测准确性,失误风险更高。“一切归结为通胀是否持续,以及关税带来的通胀冲击是否(基本)是一次性的。”

  古哈表示,“通胀持续性是一种主观判断。你需要观察剔除关税后的核心通胀,以及经生产率调整的工资,还要关注通胀预期。如果预期和核心通胀总体可控,美联储将在失业率上升约25-30个基点时降息——但不会提前。

  风险提示及免责条款:市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

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