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冰火两重天,可以说是当下环境的最好写照。

从数据来看,一季度,我国进出口规模创历史同期新高,连续8个季度超过了10万亿元。然而,突如其来的关税风暴,为未来的发展带来了挑战。面对波诡云谲的环境,包括家电在内的各领域要如何出招,在冷热交织的全球变局中探寻新机?

一季度进出口规模创历史同期新高

4月14日,国务院新闻办公室举行一季度有关经济数据例行新闻发布会。发布会上,海关总署相关负责人介绍了一季度进出口情况。

海关总署数据显示,今年一季度,我国货物贸易进出口10.3万亿元人民币,同比增长1.3%。其中,出口6.13万亿元,增长6.9%;进口4.17万亿元,下降6%。一季度进出口规模创历史同期新高,连续8个季度超过了10万亿元。从月度趋势看,1月份进出口下降2.2%,2月份基本持平,3月份增长6%。

从地区来看,一季度,我国对共建“一带一路”国家进出口5.26万亿元,增长2.2%,高出整体0.9个百分点,占进出口总值的51.1%。其中,对东盟进出口1.71万亿元,增长7.1%,东盟继续稳居我国第一大贸易伙伴地位,占我国整体外贸的比重提升到16.6%;对欧盟进出口1.3万亿元人民币,增长1.4%;对美国进出口规模1.11万亿元,增长4%。

从出口品类来看,机电产品进出口增长较快。一季度,我国进出口机电产品5.29万亿元,增长7.7%。其中,出口增长比较快的有,家用电器、笔记本电脑、电子元件等;进口增长比较快的有,自动数据处理设备零部件、船舶和海洋工程装备等。

值得关注的是,在回答记者关于当前美国关税相关问题时,海关总署发言人表示,当前,我国出口确实面临复杂严峻的外部形势,但是“天塌不下来”。近年来,我国积极构建多元化市场,深化与各方的产业链供应链合作,这不仅赋能了对方发展,也增强了我们自身的韧性。同时,中国内需市场广阔,是重要的大后方。我们将坚定不移办好自己的事,以自身的确定性应对外部环境的不确定性。

海关总署发言人还表示,我国是全球制造业第一大国和第二大消费市场,工业门类齐全,产业体系完整、配套能力强,同时我们有14亿多人口、有4亿多中等收入群体,各类消费场景蓬勃发展,无论是从工业生产还是从居民消费来看,市场的需求都很大。特别是我国始终坚持扩大高水平对外开放,有序扩大自主开放和单边开放,积极扩大进口,与世界各国共享发展机遇,我们已经连续16年保持全球进口第二大国的地位,年均增速达到5.4%,全球进口份额也从7.9%稳步提升到10.5%。当前和未来一段时间,中国进口增长空间巨大,中国大市场始终是世界的大机遇。

多地密集出台稳外贸政策

相关统计显示,近段时间,多地出台新相关政策,加码稳外贸行动。4月14日,城市出口规模排在全国第五位的广东省东莞市正式出台《关于促进外贸稳定增长的工作方案》,目标是稳定预期、激发活力,全力促进外贸稳量增效,争取到2027年“一带一路”市场出口占比达30%以上,外贸结构持续优化,供应链保障能力显著提升。方案提出四大类重点举措,包括开拓多元化市场,扩大中间品贸易,加大外经贸发展专项资金支持,拓展跨境贸易货运通道网络等。

深圳自4月正式启动“逐新前行质升量稳”外贸政策宣讲系列活动,致力于通过更深触达外贸企业的方式提高政策的落地效率。同时,近期推出的“深企e贸”产品,帮助深圳的外贸企业更好地获取全球采购商信息,对接潜在客户,最大化地促成交易。

4月11日,阳江市商务局公布了“稳外贸八条”新政,其中,在参展经费支持中,对参加共建“一带一路”国家、RCEP成员国、中东地区展会的外贸企业,展位费、特装费、机票费均可给予最高50%的支持。而外贸企业转内销,也将给予展位费最高50%的支持力度。

同日,上海市人民政府举行新闻发布会,介绍《上海市促进专精特新中小企业发展壮大的若干措施》相关情况。发布会上,市商务委总经济师罗志松表示:市商委鼓励支持更多专精特新中小企业积极参加国际知名展会,将给予相应的政策支持。参加目录以外的其他展会,将给予获得中小企业开拓国际市场的资金支持。

4月10日,福建省商务厅发布关于征求《福建省深化内外贸一体化发展实施方案(征求意见稿)》意见的公告,力争培育认定1000家内外贸一体化领跑企业和20家内外贸融合交易市场,累计培育不少于100个亿元级规模的内外贸一体化发展电商平台(企业)

对此,多方分析均认为,考虑到中国经济韧性和稳外贸政策持续加力,面对此轮关税风暴,中国外贸有信心、有底气面对各种风险挑战。

家电业积极探索寻找新机

作为制造业的重要组成部分,中国作为家电制造、销售大国,家电业在这场突如其来的风暴中也在积极探索应对。

中国机电产品进出口商会数据显示,2024年我国对全球家电产品(白电)累计出口1286.4亿美元,同比增长14.8%。从全球区域市场的表现来看,对北美累计出口256.3亿美元,同比增长7.9%。其次是日本,出口约75亿美元;黑电方面,洛图科技最新发布的《中国大陆电视机出口市场月度快报》数据显示,2024年全年,中国大陆的电视机出口量为11054万台,同比增长11.4%,出口额为1130亿元,同比增长15.0%。其中,北美地区为液晶电视出口量最大的市场。

虽然美国在出口市场中占有较为重要地位,但也要看到的是,新兴市场正在成为以彩电为代表的家电产品的出口重要方向。奥维睿沃数据显示,2025年1-2月,中国向中东非出口TV达349万台,同比增长5.8%,其中沙特阿拉伯在2025年初实现32.9%的增长,市场潜力巨大;中国向东欧独联体地区出口TV总量为282万台,同比增长13.4%,波兰成为该地区最大的出口国。

行业人士认为,近年来,美国贸易保护主义日益抬头,中国企业已经做好了相应的准备。其中,家电企业构建全球化体系,在全球范围建立起研发中心、制造基地等。从短期来看,此次美国关税将加征关税对象扩大,对于过往的“绕道”模式带来了阻碍。因此,寻找新市场成为了关键,东盟、金砖国家、日韩都是中国企业出海的潜在目标,也可以部分替代美国市场。

据报道,当地时间3月30日,第13次中日韩经贸部长会议在韩国首尔举行。在《第13次中日韩经贸部长会议联合新闻声明》中,明确写入了“支持以世贸组织为核心、以规则为基础、开放、包容、透明、非歧视的多边贸易体制”“继续努力打造全球公平竞争环境”等内容。中国的农产品、家电、工业制成品在不断拓展日韩市场份额。据估计,中日韩自贸区一旦建成,将形成一个拥有15.87亿消费者,地区生产总值(GDP)占世界GDP总量23.4%、三国间贸易额约占世界总量18.7%的巨大经济圈。

行业人士认为,虽然关税风暴可能会在短时间内给家电业带来阵痛,但正所谓“风物长宜放眼量”,从长期来看,全球需求、供给、产业链都仍然存在,中国完善的产业链和坚实的制造业基础的优势并未改变,随着新一轮的技术创新以及新兴市场拓展,家电业也将打开更广阔的的空间。

(家电网®HEA.CN)

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