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星峰传说后传|浪漫邂逅心动瞬间,甜蜜情感故事

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  最近美元跌麻了。从盘面上看,亚盘、欧盘时段的美元指数格外的弱。与各方面信息对比看,趋势很明显——跨境资金在亚盘和欧盘时段大量流出美国。

  美元的落寞与黄金的狂热交相辉映。我们可以将黄金视作所有信用货币的对手盘,信用货币泡沫化是黄金长牛的重要逻辑之一。一个有趣的现象是——美债“滚雪球”的速度越来越快,黄金价格的上涨也越来越快。

  当布雷顿森林体系解体时(1971年),美国国债余额只有4000亿美元,美债花了整整37年才到达第一个“10万亿”。同期黄金价格从40美元涨至870美元;

  美债的第二个“10万亿”节奏快了些,大概花了9年时间(2009→2017)达到20万亿。同期黄金价格从870美元涨至1300美元;

  美债的第三个“10万亿”更快,只用了5年时间(2018→2022)。同期黄金价格涨至1800美元;

  目前美债余额已上升至36万亿美元,按照这个数据推算,美债可能将于2026年底到达第四个“10万亿”。但与前三个“10万亿”不同的是,2025年的美国经济与美国财政已经扛不住美债的“滚雪球”了……这同时造就了“落寞美元、狂热黄金”两道风景线。

  考虑到目前美国严峻的财政压力,可以有如下推演:

  1、美元汇率企稳的必要条件是“财政平衡下的经济可持续增长”,至少让市场形成这样的预期。非常凑巧的是,“财政平衡下的可持续增长”也是懂王政府一直鼓吹的改革目标,但几条改革线索(DOGE、关税等)都处于破产和濒临破产的状态……

  2、如果上述条件不成立,美元的国际储备地位就会加速收缩。从学术层面讲,“美元霸权”由三条腿组成——国际标价货币、国际结算货币、国际储备货币。美元的前两条腿(国际标价、国际结算)都不容易取代,需要经年累月的过程。但美元的国际储备地位一定会加速收缩,在新王出现之前,黄金储备仍然是各国央行的最优选。

  进一步推演,如果“美元霸权”的三条腿被砍掉一条,美元汇率的合理区间在哪里?尽管跌破100的美元指数看起来很炸裂,但从更长的历史周期看,90-95的美元指数才是常态。USDX的破位下跌只不过是从历史高位向下回归而已……

  总结今天的分享:

  1、落寞的美元与狂热的黄金交相辉映。一个有趣的现象是——美债“滚雪球”的速度越来越快,黄金价格的上涨也越来越快。

  2、美元汇率企稳的必要条件是“财政平衡下的经济可持续增长”,至少让市场形成这样的预期。但懂王政府几条改革线索(DOGE、关税等)都处于破产和濒临破产的状态……

  3、回不去的昨天,是美元的历史必然。尽管跌破100的美元指数看起来很炸裂,但从更长的历史周期看,90-95的美元指数才是常态。

  声明:任何订阅人、机构或个人未经本公众号作者授权,不得以任何方式修改、转载、翻版或复制本公众号推送信息,否则属于违法行为。本公众号登载的内容不构成对任何人的投资建议,阅读者应根据自身情况自主做出投资决策并承担相应风险。对依据或者使用本公众号内容所造成的一切后果,作者均不承担任何法律责任。

  (转自:BFC汇谈)

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