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  来源:国际金融报

  4月7日大跌后,A股迎来连续5个交易日的反弹,今日则是横盘震荡。

  受访人士指出,当前市场资金整体呈现谨慎观望态势。“国家队”持续增持,向市场传递了明确的政策托底信号,股市向下有支撑,但向上动力不足。短期建议逢低配置内需、国产替代相关,以及超跌成长。

  A股横盘震荡

  4月15日,A股横盘震荡。沪指收涨0.15%报3267.66点,创业板指收跌0.13%报1930.4点。科创50下跌0.78%,沪深300、上证50微涨,北证50微跌。量能上,近四个交易日的日成交额呈现递减态势,今日日成交额降至1.08万亿元。

  个股跌多涨少,2419只个股收涨,涨停股81只;2814只个股收跌,跌停股11只。

  板块分化明显,大消费表现不错。美容护理领涨,银行、家用电器、纺织服饰板块等飘红。

  国防军工板块跌近2%,商贸零售跌逾1%,电子、计算机、通信等微跌。

  概念股方面,麒麟电池、维生素、净水概念等均上涨,而华为欧拉、被动元件、Chiplet概念领跌。

  “在当前关税政策持续以及海外市场波动加剧的背景下,市场资金整体呈现出谨慎观望的态势。中央汇金等‘国家队’的持续增持行为,向市场传递了明确的政策托底信号,因此股市向下有支撑,但向上动力不足。”排排网财富研究部卜益力告诉《国际金融报》记者,关税政策引发的市场悲观情绪已得到较为充分的释放。随着关税税率提升至较高水平,其对市场的边际影响正逐步减弱。短期市场或将维持震荡修复格局,在关税冲击导致的估值回调尚未完全修复前,市场仍存在一定的上涨空间。

  逢低配置这些板块

  “当前来看,积极的政策密集出台,资金流出风险消减,基本面延续弱修复,A股短期可能已见底。”华金证券策略邓利军团队告诉《国际金融报》记者,当前处于底部震荡期,内需和国产替代行业相对占优,短期逢低配置内需、国产替代相关,以及超跌成长。

  卜益力认为,立足当前宏观经济环境和市场运行特征,“红利+科技”的均衡配置策略展现出独特的投资价值。该策略兼具防御性与进攻性:一方面,高股息红利资产能够为投资组合提供稳定的现金流回报,有效抵御市场波动风险;另一方面,科技创新板块作为经济转型升级的核心驱动力,将持续孕育高成长投资机会。这种双轮驱动的配置思路,既能在复杂市场环境中构筑安全垫,又能充分把握科技创新带来的长期超额收益机遇,较好地实现了风险收益的平衡。

  正圆投资方面认为,最坏的时期已经过去。尽管美国关税政策可能对中国经济发展带来一定挑战,但中国股票市场具备诸多有利条件。这些条件包括地缘政治的变化、中国资产本身的估值优势,以及宏观政策发力的空间。在出口压力加大的背景下,稳增长、内循环刺激政策的出台节奏有望早于市场此前预期,这或将边际缓解关税对经济的影响。此次市场系统性下跌之后,不乏被错杀的品种。那些基本面受影响很小、经营能力强且商业模式稳定的优质公司,因市场情绪导致大幅下跌,值得加大力度关注。

  富荣基金基金经理李延峥向《国际金融报》记者直言,中美博弈会趋于中长期化,后续会伴随着加码、谈判、缓和等反复拉锯,并存在由贸易向科技、金融等领域扩散的趋势。对于市场而言,可以参考2019年5月关税升级时A股市场的表现:当时市场短期大跌后逐步“脱敏”,后续中美经济层面的博弈对市场的影响边际减弱。同时,我国政府准备充分且反应及时,如汇金、诚通、国新代表的国家队宣布增持ETF(交易型开放式指数基金)和股票,央行表态将提供再贷款支持等,这些举措极大地助力了资本市场信心的提振。4月底即将召开政治局会议,稳经济政策(如财政、地产、消费等领域)也有望进一步加码。因此,建议短期内稳中求进。从结构上看,与内需相关的消费板块以及自主可控相关板块的确定性更高。从中期来看,AI(人工智能)、半导体、机器人等新兴成长方向仍是值得关注的重点领域。

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