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美联储主席鲍威尔再次强调,央行必须确保关税不会引发更持久的通胀上升。

鲍威尔周三在芝加哥经济俱乐部表示:“我们的职责是稳固长期通胀预期,确保物价水平的一次性上涨不会演变成持续的通胀问题。”

鲍威尔称,政策制定者将平衡促进充分就业和稳定物价这两项双重责任,“要记住,没有物价稳定,我们就无法实现惠及所有美国人的长期强劲劳动力市场条件。”

摩根大通首席美国经济学家MichaelFeroli在给客户的一份报告中表示,这番言论将物价稳定定位为可持续实现美联储就业使命的“先决条件”。

Feroli表示:“通过持续关注美联储使命中通胀方面的问题,鲍威尔再次抵制了市场针对增长前景恶化迹象迅速采取货币政策回应的定价预期。”

这些言论强化了鲍威尔一再强调的观点,包括最近在4月4日强调的信息:美联储官员并不急于改变央行的基准政策利率。

华盛顿LHMeyer/MonetaryPolicyAnalytics的经济学家DerekTang提请人们注意鲍威尔的评论,即美联储必须“确保”关税驱动的价格上涨不会助长长期通胀。

Tang表示:“‘确保’这个词非常非常有意思。因为确定性是一个很高的标准。”

BloombergEconomics经济学家ChrisG.Collins表示:“这些言论表明,在等待政府政策将如何影响经济的更明确信息时,美联储将优先考虑其双重使命中的通胀方面。”

随着他们寻求更清楚地了解特朗普的经济政策——尤其是贸易政策——将如何影响美国经济,鲍威尔和其他美联储政策制定者表示支持维持利率稳定。

维持稳定

鲍威尔表示:“目前,我们处于有利地位,可以在考虑调整政策立场之前等待更明确的信息。”

在演讲后的问答环节中,鲍威尔表示,他预计“可能在今年剩余时间里”,失业率和通胀率都将偏离美联储的目标。

这位美联储主席承认,经济走弱和通胀上升最终可能使央行的两个目标产生冲突。

他表示:“我们可能会发现自己处于双重使命目标相互矛盾的具有挑战性的局面中。如果出现这种情况,我们将考虑经济与每个目标的差距,以及预计弥合这些差距可能需要的不同时间跨度。”

鲍威尔还对近期金融市场的动荡发表了评论,强调市场的运行“基本符合预期”。

鲍威尔称:“市场面临着很多不确定性,这意味着波动性,但即便如此,市场仍在正常运行。”他补充道,“市场在做它们该做的事,它们是有序的”。

特朗普继续大幅改变其征收新关税的计划,这让企业、消费者和全球金融市场都感到紧张不安。

4月2日宣布的所谓对等关税计划引发市场动荡后,他推迟了该计划。他推进了对全球征收10%的基础关税以及对中国征收超过100%关税的计划,然后在为智能手机和其他科技产品设立豁免方面发出了混杂的信号。他还对汽车、钢铁和铝的进口征收了关税,并暗示制药和半导体行业可能是下一个目标。

许多分析师估计,关税将推高通胀并减缓经济增长,鲍威尔对此表示赞同。以美联储偏爱的衡量指标来看,截至2月,过去一年的通胀率为2.5%,较新冠疫情后的峰值大幅下降,但仍顽固地高于美联储2%的目标。鲍威尔在演讲中表示,预计3月该指标将降至2.3%。

通胀预期

鲍威尔周三重申,到目前为止宣布的关税上调幅度明显大于预期。他补充道,关税极有可能至少会导致通胀暂时上升,但通胀影响也可能更持久。

他表示:“要避免这种结果,将取决于影响的大小、这些影响完全传导至价格所需的时间,最终还取决于稳固长期通胀预期。”

2024年底,美联储官员连续三次降息,但在2025年开始表示,面对粘性通胀,他们将采取更耐心的态度。许多官员进一步强化了这种想法,强调需要将关税导致通胀持续上升以及美国人对价格增长的长期预期上升的风险降至最低。

与此同时,裁员和失业率在3月为4.2%,仍处于较低水平。美国雇主上个月新增了22.8万个就业岗位,超出了预期。

鲍威尔表示,央行离停止缩减资产负债表还远,并补充称储备仍然充足。他指出,缩表速度放缓意味着美联储可以在更长时间内继续缩减其资产组合。

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