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校长把冰块一块一块的放进,揭示隐藏的奥秘与真实意义,让我们一起
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校长把冰块一块一块的放进,揭示隐藏的奥秘与真实意义,让我们一起

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来源:华尔街见闻

作为前美联储理事和曾被特朗普考虑担任财政部长的人选,沃什被视为美联储"影子主席",其言论在当前美国货币政策辩论中格外引人注目。

备受关注的美联储主席潜在继任者、特朗普盟友凯文·沃什(KevinWarsh)近日在华盛顿猛烈抨击美联储,称其犯下"系统性错误",未能遏制一代人以来最严重的通胀潮。

作为前美联储理事和曾被特朗普考虑担任财政部长的人选,沃什被视为美联储"影子主席",其言论在当下格外引人注目。

央行助推通胀与政府过度支出

据媒体报道,沃什周五在华盛顿出席"三十国集团"(Groupof30)活动上表示,自2008年金融危机以来,"央行主导地位已成为美国治理的新特征"。他批评美联储"更像政府通用机构,而非专注于货币政策的中央银行",这一角色偏离导致其无法将通胀控制在2%目标水平。

尤为尖锐的是,沃什将美国通胀问题部分归咎于美联储7万亿美元的庞大资产负债表,认为这实质上为联邦政府放纵性支出提供了便利,使美国财政陷入"危险轨道"。

沃什对美联储在量化宽松下大规模购买国债的行为抨击道:

此外,沃什还批评美联储涉足气候变化和社会包容等超出其核心职责的领域,尽管他承认美联储已于今年1月退出"金融系统绿色化网络",表明其态度有所转变。

美联储独立性受到挑战

沃什的言论恰逢美联储与总统特朗普关系紧张之际。上周,特朗普公开表示"迫不及待"要结束鲍威尔的任期,尽管他后来部分收回言论称无意解雇鲍威尔,暂时缓解了全球市场的忧虑。

鲍威尔现任期将于2026年5月结束,财政部长贝森特已表示将于今秋启动继任者遴选。业内普遍认为,沃什与美国国家经济委员会负责人哈塞特是最有力的继任人选。

此前,特朗普对鲍威尔拒绝降息的批评,以及白宫暗示可能有权解雇美联储主席的言论,已引发市场对央行独立性的担忧,导致股市和美元大幅抛售。

值得注意的是,尽管沃什对美联储政策持强烈批评态度,他仍表示支持美联储在制定利率时不受政治干预的"操作独立性",但同时强调"当货币政策结果不佳时,美联储应接受严格质询",而非被视为"不可触碰的权威"。

风险提示及免责条款

市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

  来源:华尔街见闻

  洛杉矶航运量下降、旅游相关出行减少以及关键消费领域信用卡收入减少,数据驱动的华尔街分析师们正在观察到多项令人担忧的经济指标。

  当美股大幅回升、企业借贷成本下降、美债市场趋稳之际,一批精于数据分析的华尔街资深投资者却选择站在场外观望。

  例如, 管有1100亿美元资产的BostonPartners公司研究主管MichaelMullaney就没加入风险资产反弹的热潮。与之相反,他正在反复检视各类经济数据,担忧这些数据已显示出特朗普贸易战造成的早期损害迹象。

  尽管标普500指数较特朗普关税政策公布前仅低不到3%,比特币突破95000美元领涨风险资产,但这些分析师却凝视着那些不怎引人注目,却可能预示经济长期痛苦的高频指标:洛杉矶航运量萎缩、旅游相关出行减少以及关键消费领域信用卡收入下滑。

  “这种影响不会在90天内消失,”Mullaney冷静分析道,“无论关税最终定在何种水平,都将对经济活动产生显著冲击。”他选择持有现金,尽管错过这轮反弹可能代价高昂,但他担忧贸易敌意造成的影响可能已深入骨髓,难以避免。

  风险资产全面回暖,市场乐观情绪回归

  过去几周,美国金融市场整体情绪似乎已经转暖。

  基准10年期美国国债收益率在过去两周内下降超过20个基点,缓解了外资大规模撤离的担忧,同时美元汇率企稳。高收益债券风险溢价录得2023年以来最大收窄幅度,信贷波动性指标显著回落。

  具有看涨倾向的杠杆ETF在过去一个月吸引约70亿美元资金流入,美元、美股、美债共同上涨,创下今年以来最佳协同走势,显示大多数投资者正重新拥抱风险资产。

  高频数据亮起红灯,经济活动明显放缓

  然而,阿波罗全球管理公司首席经济学家TorstenSlok在报告中警告,从中国驶向美国的集装箱船数量正在“崩溃”,预计消费者将面临更高通胀,卡车运输、物流和零售业将出现大规模裁员。

  摩根大通首席美国经济学家MichaelFeroli注意到高频数据已显示国际游客数量下降,这将拖累经济增长。

  哈伯资本顾问投资组合经理JakeSchurmeier表示:

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校长把冰块一块一块的放进,揭示隐藏的奥秘与真实意义,让我们一起的相关文章 心理咨询师会把自身缺点上报给督导讨论吗?的相关文章
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