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专题:巴菲特2025年股东大会重磅来袭

  根据伯克希尔哈撒韦公司最新财务披露的新数据,沃伦·巴菲特已购入了美国短期国债市场近5%的份额,通过伯克希尔・哈撒韦锁定了3008.7亿美元的短期政府债券。

  到2025年3月底,美国短期国债总规模达到6.15万亿美元,巴菲特持有的这一大笔债券让他掌控了短期国债总量的4.89%。在短期国债体系中每流通的20美元里,就有近1美元由巴菲特掌控。

  报告中的详细分类显示,伯克希尔・哈撒韦持有价值144亿美元的被归类为现金等价物的短期国债,即那些剩余到期期限不足三个月的国债。

  除此之外,还有2864.7亿美元被用于短期投资,这些投资全部直接与短期国债挂钩。这加起来就是总计3008.7亿美元的规模。没有股票,没有垃圾债券,没有加密货币,只有传统的政府债券。

  这份来自伯克希尔・哈撒韦公司提交文件的报告,显示出巴菲特对安全性和流动性的重视程度之深。根据美国财政部的《公共债务月度报表》,截至3月底,美国短期国债市场总规模为6.15万亿美元。这就是4.89%这个比例的来源。

  伯克希尔的美国短债持有量超过美联储

  如今,巴菲特持有的短期国债数量比美联储还要多,美联储目前持有的短期国债略多于1950亿美元。这使得伯克希尔哈撒韦在短期国债持有规模上超过了全球最具影响力的央行。这并非是在炫耀实力,只是因为坐拥超过3340亿美元现金,而其中90%的现金如今仅以短期国债的形式持有这一情况。

  真正吸引巴菲特的是收益率。截至2025年4月,短期国债的收益率约为4.359%,而这种由美国政府背书的收益率比巴菲特在股市中看到的回报更具吸引力。他已经有两年多没有进行过重大收购了。

  他的理由很简单:一切都太贵了。即使伯克希尔哈撒韦在保险、能源、铁路和消费品等多个行业都拥有大量业务,巴菲特在当前价格下也找不到合适的收购目标。他不买入是因为他不喜欢支付过高的价格。

  就连苹果这样的科技巨头也在参与短期国债投资,不过规模要小得多。苹果持有约300亿美元的现金及现金等价物,其中一半(155亿美元)投资于美国国债。但与巴菲特积累的规模相比,这简直不值一提。

  在市场下跌时巴菲特选择等待

  所有人都在关注巴菲特何时会再次出手。今年以来,股市市值已经蒸发了数万亿美元,各类指数远未达到峰值。但当其他人陷入恐慌时,巴菲特却安坐在他的现金堡垒中,等待着他所谓的“绝佳机会”。

  基金经理、巴菲特专家、《伯克希尔哈撒韦公司完整的金融史》一书的作者米德(Mead)表示:“他能获取实时信息。”他指的是巴菲特通过伯克希尔庞大的业务集团不断获取最新动态的方式。但这并不意味着市场即将崩溃,只是说明他没有看到任何值得买入的资产。

  米德说:“他知道何时该卖出,而决定何时买入以及买入什么已经变得困难得多了。”

  《巴菲特与芒格:不设剧本》的作者亚历克斯·莫里斯(AlexMorris)表示,巴菲特的资金规模限制了他的选择。莫里斯说:“他的机会范围相当有限。”伯克希尔・哈撒韦的市值超过1万亿美元,这意味着即使是数十亿美元的交易对其来说也几乎不值一提。

  早在2009年,巴菲特以260亿美元收购了伯灵顿北方圣达菲铁路公司(BurlingtonNorthernSantaFe),这是他有史以来完成的最大一笔交易。如今,同样的金额仅占伯克希尔・哈撒韦市值的2.5%。

  莫里斯提出了两种可能的举措:将可口可乐或美国运通的剩余股份私有化。成本呢?分别是2800亿美元和1300亿美元。不过,即便如此,这也不会对巴菲特的资金储备造成严重影响。

  在上次市场崩溃期间,巴菲特曾向高盛(GoldmanSachs)、陶氏化学(DowChemical)和美国银行(BankofAmerica)伸出援手,如今若要产生类似的影响,出手的规模必须要大得多。莫里斯说:“现在必须要大得多才能产生显著影响。”

  所以,当市场期待着巴菲特有所行动时,他却只是坐在那一堆短期国债上,靠着这些国债的收益耐心等待。

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