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杨思敏 金瓶梅:感受青春的热情与梦想的碰撞
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杨思敏 金瓶梅:感受青春的热情与梦想的碰撞

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  看到一个说法挺有意思的,自由现金流可能是最让普通人共情的经营指标。

  在现在的环境下,对于普通打工人来说,最重要的一个生活质量指标,无疑就是现金流了。

  在我们的日常生活中,现金流可以被理解为咱们税后每个月到手的收入,在扣除贷款房租这些刚性支出后,每个月手上剩下的余钱。

  (说到这,不禁去偷偷看了看自己的银行流水……)

  可以说,现金流不仅是我们每个月能够自由支配的收入,更意味着我们对于生活的抗风险能力,是真正属于自己的收入。

  是我们想要消费升级的时候能够摸到的鼓鼓的钱包,也是在生活中的意外发生的时候能够及时支出、避免更大的问题出现的“避险资产”。

  现金流真的是太重要了!对上市公司来说,也是如此。

  在一家企业的经营管理中,自由现金流=营业现金流−资本支出。也就是一家公司在支付经营活动所需的费用和必要资本开支后,剩余的可用现金。

  有些公司,在一次性的投入之后,可以享受多年的产出、利润。例如,油田在勘探、开采后,可以持续多年产出石油,跟印钞机似的。又比如,水电,在水坝、发电站、电力输送网络建成后,天上下的每一滴雨水都会化为发电收入。这样的公司往往都是现金流非常优秀的,就像打工人梦寐以求的有十套房可以收租一样。

  但有些公司,是需要不断砸钱建生产线、而且三五年就要迭代的。例如,电子面板工厂,先要投入巨量资金建生产线,然后每过几年技术升级又要建新生产线。这样的公司,现金流要么长期偏紧张,要么周期性紧张。

  还有些公司,是先要高投入、而且是高杠杆地投入,后期回款周期又长、过程中的不确定因素又特别多。例如,地产就是需要花巨款拿地、建设,至于能卖成什么情况还要取决于届时的政策、经济环境等。

  从这三个分类里可以看出,自由现金流,既是企业盈利质量的“试金石”,也是判断公司内在价值的关键指标。

  高自由现金流的公司,往往具备良好的经营壁垒,由此具有良好的抗风险能力和稳定长期增长潜力。甚至,还能通过持续的分红、回购来增厚股东收益。

  而现金流ETF(159399)和现金流ETF联接基金(A类:023919C类:023920),正是为我们这些重视现金流的“打工人”提供了布局现金流充裕的上市公司的好机会,场内场外一网打尽。

  这两只产品跟踪的“富时中国A股自由现金流聚焦指数”, 核心理念就正是以现金流率来选股。指数主要聚焦2类公司,其一是坐拥重要资源的,如石油、煤炭、通信;其二是必须品。且指数整体的央国企占权重约三分之二。

  这也就是我们上文里说的,又大又稳,“躺着收租”的好公司。

  更重要的是,当世界局势来到前景不明的“乱纪元”,现金流丰沛的红利资产,避险能力得到了投资者的关注。

  此外,之前国家政策要求企业加大分红次数和力度,在低利率背景下,自由现金流充裕的企业凭借着分红能力和抗通胀属性,很大概率会成为后续的吸金主战场。

  现金流ETF(159399)可月月评估分红,目前首月上市已经成功分红两次。

  在今年的市场环境中,现金流ETF(159399)及联接基金(A类:023919C类:023920)可以有效对冲科技板块波动加大的风险,从配置的角度来说,高科技+现金流的组合,进可攻,退可守,有望成为今年的主流配置选择。

  宏观角度看,当前宽松货币政策使得利率处于下行通道,债券收益率随之下降。在这种情况下,高自由现金流资产因经营质量较高和股息率相对稳定等特点,配置价值愈发凸显。叠加新 “国九条”、市值管理等政策鼓励上市公司分红,自由现金流充沛的大中市值公司有能力也有动力提高分红比例。

  另外,现金流状况良好的企业往往意味着有不错的盈利质量和较强的风险应对能力,在市场波动或经济形势不稳定时,这类企业能够更好地抵御风险,保持经营的稳定性,从而吸引投资者持有其股票。

  当前政策传导至实体经济需要时间,短期内经济面临“内需不足”等问题,叙事逻辑没有方向性改变,大盘价值风格有望持续,“大中市值+央国企+充裕现金流”有望成为后市投资主线之一。

  注:我国股市运作时间较短,指数过往表现不代表未来。现金牛不代表牛市等盈利性表述,不构成未来表现的承诺

  现金流ETF属于股票型基金,其预期收益及预期风险水平理论上高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。本基金为指数型基金,主要采用完全复制策略,跟踪富时中国A股自由现金流聚焦指数,其风险收益特征与标的指数所表征的市场组合的风险收益特征相似。

  现金流ETF联接为ETF联接基金,目标ETF为股票型基金,其预期收益及预期风险水平理论上高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。目标ETF基金为指数型基金,主要采用完全复制策略,跟踪富时中国A股自由现金流聚焦指数,其风险收益特征与标的指数所表征的市场组合的风险收益特征相似。现金流ETF联接基金主要通过投资于目标ETF跟踪标的指数表现,具有与标的指数以及标的指数所代表的证券市场相似的风险收益特征。

  如需购买相关基金产品,请您关注投资者适当性管理相关规定、提前做好风险测评,并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买与之相匹配的风险等级的基金产品。基金有风险,投资需谨慎。

  现金流ETF联接基金收益分配原则为:1、在符合有关基金分红条件的前提下,基金管理人可每月对本基金进行评估并可根据实际情况进行收益分配,分配时间、分配方案及收益分配数额等内容,基金管理人可以根据实际情况确定并按照有关规定公告;2.本基金收益分配方式分为两种:现金分红与红利再投资,基金份额持有人可选择红利或现金红利自动转为相应类别的基金份额进行再投资,若基金份额持有人不选择,本基金默认的收益分配方式为现金分红,基金份额持有人可对A类、C类基金份额分别选择不同的分红方式;3.本基金同一类别的每一份基金份额享有同等分配权;4.基于本基金的特点,本基金收益分配原则无需以弥补亏损为前提,收益分配后各类基金份额净值有可能低于面值;5.法律法规或监管机构另有规定的,从其规定。在不违反法律法规、基金合同的约定以及对基金份额持有人利益无实质性不利影响的情况下,基金管理人在履行适当程序后,可调整基金收益的分配原则和支付方式,无需召开基金份额持有人大会审议。鉴于本基金的特点,本基金分红不一定来自基金盈利,基金分红不代表总投资的正回报。

  现金流ETF基金收益分配原则为:1、本基金的收益分配方式为现金分红;2、基金管理人可每月对基金相对业绩比较基准的超额收益率以及基金的可供分配利润进行评价,收益评价日核定的基金净值增长率超过业绩比较基准同期增长率或者基金可供分配利润金额大于零时,基金管理人可进行收益分配;3、当基金收益分配根据基金相对业绩比较基准的超额收益率决定时,基于本基金的特点,本基金收益分配无需以弥补亏损为前提,收益分配后基金份额净值有可能低于面值;当基金收益分配根据基金可供分配利润金额决定时,本基金收益分配后基金份额净值不能低于面值,即基金收益分配基准日的基金份额净值减去每单位基金份额收益分配金额后不能低于面值;4、在符合上述基金分红条件的前提下,本基金可每月进行收益分配。评价时间、分配时间、分配方案及每次基金收益分配数额等内容,基金管理人可以根据实际情况确定并按照有关规定公告;鉴于本基金的特点,本基金分红不一定来自基金盈利,基金分红并不代表总投资的正回报。(资料来源:基金招募说明书、基金合同,具体以基金法律文件为准)

  本基金完全由国泰基金管理有限公司开发,本基金与伦敦证券交易所集团公司及其附属企业(统称“LSEGroup”)之间没有关联,也并非受其发起、背书、出售或推广。FTSERussell是特定LSEGroup公司的商标名称之一。LSEGroup概不对任何人士使用本基金或基础数据承担任何责任。

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