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色-情-伦-理一区二色戒_带你领略不同文化的碰撞与交融 - 骤变网络
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色-情-伦-理一区二色戒_带你领略不同文化的碰撞与交融

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根据美国银行最新的全球基金经理调查,由特朗普政府政策可能引发的贸易战及其导致的全球经济衰退威胁,已成为当前市场最严峻的尾部风险。该调查结果凸显全球投资者对地缘政治紧张局势及其对金融市场连锁效应的持续担忧。

调查显示,高达80%的受访基金经理将“贸易战导致全球衰退”列为当前市场面临的首要尾部风险。这一共识比例创下美银开展此项调查15年来的历史峰值。

除贸易战隐忧外,基金经理们还关注其他风险因素,但担忧程度相对较低。其中,“通胀压力迫使美联储激进加息”以10%的得票率位列第二风险。

7%的受访者将“外资撤离引发美元崩盘”视为主要威胁。只有1%的受访者指出“人工智能泡沫”是最大市场风险。

这种对贸易战与衰退风险的高度聚焦表明,地缘政治不稳定因素正日益主导投资者情绪。特别是在全球经济处于疫情后脆弱复苏阶段、各大央行政策持续调整的背景下,市场敏感性尤为突出。

下图所示为美银提供的历年尾部风险分布图表:

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