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尽管MetaPlatforms(META.O)可能更希望保住自己的帝国版图,但将其核心业务分拆出去,可能反而在多个方面释放股东价值。

有时候,即便不情愿,也不得不分手。Meta现在就可能陷入这样的境地——不过对投资者来说,这未必是坏事。

美国联邦贸易委员会(FTC)正指控这家数字巨头在社交网络市场存在垄断行为,本周一这起反垄断案件正式开审。FTC称,Meta(前身为Facebook)通过2012年收购Instagram和2014年收购WhatsApp,采用反竞争手段消除竞争对手。

如果法院裁定Meta违反了反垄断法,公司可能被迫剥离旗下子公司,或进行业务重组。

截至目前,Meta的股价今年的表现仍优于其他大型科技股。根据道琼斯市场数据引用FactSet的数据,不包括Meta在内的“七巨头”科技股市值加权指数在2025年已下跌17.3%,而Meta仅下跌9.5%。在该组公司中,只有微软(MSFT.O)表现更好。

然而,反垄断案的开审已经给Meta股价带来不小冲击,今年以来近一半的跌幅都集中在最近两个交易日内出现。

由于市场不喜欢不确定性,因此这场可能持续数周的法律大战自然会令投资者担忧。但问题的关键在于:如果Meta真的被迫拆分,它的股票会发生什么?

可能出现几种情况。Meta可能将Instagram和WhatsApp剥离为独立上市公司,投资者则会获得三家公司的股票。也可能出售其中一家或两家子公司并获取现金。不过需要指出的是,这类法律程序往往时间漫长,可能经历上诉阶段——正如Alphabet(GOOGL.O)在与司法部的反垄断战中所体会的那样。

但假设真的拆分呢?

目前无法确定反垄断案的最终走向。但从整体来看,业务拆分可能对股东是好消息。

D.A.Davidson科技研究主管GilLuria表示,Meta甚至应该主动考虑分拆这些业务板块。因为如果不是被捆绑在一起,这些平台可能能以更高的市盈率进行交易。这种情况下,投资者还能获得更多关于各业务健康状况的透明信息。

目前Meta并未披露按单个应用划分的详细营收数据,因此业务拆分将让投资者更好地了解各平台的收入、风险和增长率,从而有更多灵活性去选择持有或抛售哪些公司。

Luria表示:“比如WhatsApp是增长最快的,Instagram其次,Facebook最慢。”他是根据Meta财报电话会议中的定性信息得出这一结论的。

因此,如果Facebook本身拥有稳定的经常性收入,作为独立公司它可以支付更高的股息或回购更多股票,适合价值投资者。而如果WhatsApp是增长最快的平台,它则更适合追求成长的投资者。Luria指出,WhatsApp的营收潜力主要来自“点击发消息”广告和AI聊天等功能,但目前还处于印度、印尼、马来西亚等市场的早期测试阶段。

此外,拆分还可能减少研发支出对公司净利润的拖累。Luria指出,Meta在增强现实等前沿领域的巨额投入,将不会再计入被剥离的子公司财报中。

不过,也要注意拆分后可能带来的波动性增加,因为投资者将重新调整持仓,并重新评估每个应用的独立表现。目前三大平台都受益于Meta在AI上的整体投入,一旦拆分,这一红利可能不再。同时,Instagram与Facebook之间的跨平台内容发布整合流程也可能受到影响。晨星分析师MalikAhmedKhan则对MarketWatch表示,WhatsApp“并不直接具备变现能力”,它对Meta最大的价值在于通过原生信息整合提供用户行为的洞察。

值得一提的是,一些公司业务拆分后的表现非常亮眼。例如惠普(HPQ.N)在2017年将企业业务与另一家公司CSC合并为DXCTechnologyCo.,结果两个公司在分拆后12个月内分别上涨26%和47%以上。

再如通用电气(GE.N)在2023年1月剥离出GEHealthcareTechnologiesInc.,航空与医疗业务从此分道扬镳。道琼斯市场数据显示,分拆后一年内,GE股价上涨近78%,GEHealthcare也上涨近27%。GE随后在2024年4月再次剥离出GEVernovaInc.(GEV),并将母公司正式更名为GEAerospace。GEVernova作为独立能源设备公司,其股票在上市首年实现翻倍。

不过,也并非所有拆分都能立刻带来成功。比如2015年7月eBay(EBAY.O)与Paypal(PYPL.O)分拆后,在接下来的12个月内,两家公司的股价分别下跌了5.5%和1%。尽管PayPal近年的表现较弱,但在疫情初期和此前几年中,它曾是大赢家,得以在支付领域进行大规模投入,这可能在eBay体制内是无法实现的。

苹果紧急囤货应对关税风波,全球供应链再起波澜

在全球化的今天,一个企业的行动往往会影响到整个供应链。近期,苹果公司为了应对美国特朗普政府实施的“对等关税”政策,采取了一系列紧急措施,包括从中国大陆和印度紧急空运大量产品至美国囤货。这一事件引发了全球供应链的又一次波澜。

首先,我们需要理解“对等关税”的含义。这一政策要求美国对来自某些贸易逆差较大的国家和地区的商品加征与美国对中国商品加征等额的关税。对于苹果公司来说,中国和印度是其主要生产基地,因此大幅加征关税无疑会给苹果带来巨大的成本压力。

在这样的背景下,苹果公司采取了紧急囤货的策略。从三月下旬开始,苹果公司紧急安排五架满载iPhone及其他产品的货机从印度和中国飞往美国,以应对即将出台的关税政策。这种策略在短期内可能是有效的,因为短期内在美国境内生产相关产品并不现实。提前囤货能让苹果短期内维持当前定价,同时也能应对未来运输货物需要支付更高价格的情况。

然而,这种策略并非没有风险。首先,苹果公司的这种行为可能会引发消费者的抢购潮,因为消费者担忧关税会使iPhone涨价。这可能导致苹果公司的零售店销量超越往年同期,但同时也可能带来库存积压的风险。其次,苹果公司面临关税问题,但目前暂无在印度或其他市场提高零售价格的计划。因为苹果若为抵消关税影响而涨价,不能仅在美国市场实施,还需在包括印度在内的其他关键全球地区同步调整。这需要苹果公司在不同市场之间进行复杂的权衡和调整。

除了对消费者的影响,关税问题也对苹果公司的生产链产生了影响。中国约占苹果各类产品总生产能力的80%,其中约90%的iPhone和80%的iPad在中国组装。即便苹果已在泰国、印度、越南等地开展生产,仍会受到最新关税政策的不利影响。因此,苹果公司需要分析不同制造地点的关税结构对其供应链的影响,并采取相应的措施来降低成本并维持销售价格。

在这个过程中,苹果公司可能会与供应商谈判降低成本,或者自行吸收部分上涨成本。这种策略可能有助于维持销售价格,但也可能带来其他问题。例如,如果苹果公司将增加的成本转嫁给供应商,可能会影响供应商的积极性,进而影响整个生产链。因此,苹果公司需要谨慎处理与供应商的关系,以确保双方都能在互利的基础上合作。

总的来说,苹果公司的紧急囤货应对关税风波,不仅影响了其自身的经营策略,也影响了全球供应链的稳定。这一事件再次提醒我们,在全球化的今天,一个企业的成功不仅仅取决于其自身的实力,还取决于其与整个供应链的合作关系。只有通过与供应链上的各方建立互利共赢的关系,才能实现真正的可持续发展。

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