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  鲍威尔的演讲浇灭了美股市场对美联储降息救市的期待。昨夜,美股大跌。

  三大指数大幅收跌。纳指跌超500点,跌幅为3.07%;道指跌近700点,跌幅为1.73%;标普500指数跌2.24%。

  大型科技股集体下跌。特斯拉跌4.94%,苹果跌3.89%。

  芯片股重挫。英伟达跌近7%,AMD跌超7%,费城半导体指数下跌4.1%。

  中概股也集体下跌,纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌2.72%。美团跌近8%,京东集团跌超5%,阿里巴巴、小米集团均跌超4%。

  美联储明确暂不降息

  此前,美股大跌时,特朗普一再希望美联储能降息,市场也对美联储紧急降息以稳定股市的希望升温。但美联储主席鲍威尔的最新演讲给市场泼了一盆冷水。

  鲍威尔再次强调,美联储将重点防范关税驱动的物价上涨演变为更持久的通胀热。这一表态强化了鲍威尔多次重点释放的信号:美联储并不急于调整基准政策利率。

  鲍威尔当日就美国总统特朗普贸易政策的通胀效应发出了强烈警告。他表示,特朗普的关税“极有可能”刺激通胀暂时上升,并警告称这些影响可能会持续很长时间。

  鲍威尔称,美国面临着高度不确定的前景,失业率上升和通胀率上升的风险都很高。美联储会评估政府政策变化可能产生的影响,观察经济行为,并以最能实现美联储使命目标的方式制定货币政策。

  鲍威尔表示,在有更大的确定性之前,很难评估提高关税可能产生的经济影响。但是,关税上调幅度很明显远超预期,经济影响也可能如此,包括通胀上升和经济增长放缓。这些影响的规模和持续时间仍不确定。鲍威尔说,在关税问题上,调整货币政策“为时过早”。

  而针对特朗普此前声称将更换美联储主席的说法,鲍威尔表示,美联储的独立性是由美国法律赋予的,(特朗普政府)不可以无缘无故地罢免美联储官员,美国最高法院(迎合特朗普裁员)的裁决在美联储并不适用。

  据CME“美联储观察”:美联储5月维持利率不变的概率提高至83.2%。美联储到6月维持利率不变的概率为32.8%,累计降息25个基点的概率为57.0%,累计降息50个基点的概率为10.2%。

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