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夜幕下的哈尔滨小说|社会各界齐心协力共建和谐环境
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潮州市(湘桥区、饶平县、潮安区)呼和浩特市(新城区、土默特左旗、回民区、托克托县、玉泉区、和林格尔县、赛罕区、清水河县、武川县)









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中卫市(沙坡头区、中宁县、海原县)

  转自:金融界

  直到昨晚人们才缓过神来,特朗普真正的交易是“卖掉美国”。

  全球市场继续遭遇抛售,尤其是对美国资产避之不及:

  -美元、美股、美债同步下跌,并且跌幅不小。美元一度跌破98水平,10年期美债收益率再度逼近4.5%,而美股三大股指跌幅均超2%;

  -与此同时,金价再创历史新高,突破3400美元——这是对美元信用体系的质疑。

  需要注意的是,特朗普对等关税引发的危机“未完待续”,现在又出现了第二轮危机“美联储独立性危机”。

  1、原本我们认为,特朗普通过周一亚洲时段市场的走势,应当认识到对美联储的批评已经影响到了市场,会想办法缓和,但事实相反——特朗普周一再次施压鲍威尔立即降息。在他看来,这恰恰是一场更大的“谈判”。他需要用舆论压力逼迫美联储提前降息,以配合他的减税和财政刺激政策。

  特朗普在TruthSocial上的一篇帖子中表示:“正如我所预测的那样,这些成本呈下降趋势,几乎不会出现通胀,但经济可能会放缓,除非‘太晚先生’,一个大失败者,现在降息。”

  2、这两场都是“人造危机”,解铃还须系铃人。要么特朗普在关税上让步,要么在与美联储的对峙中让步。

  摆在特朗普目前的是一道选择题:

  让美联储让步,在关税上更加激进;

  在关税上让步,更加猛烈批评美联储,换取美联储让步后,进一步升级关税政策。

  从特朗普的性格特点看,他可以轻易出尔反尔,但最终的目标不会改变。现在人们对任何消息都心存恐惧,感觉就像身处一个黑暗的房间里,地板上摆满了锋利的玻璃,最好的办法就是站着不动,祈祷灯能重新亮起来。但时间是不等人的,如果特朗普现在不让步,以后让步就晚了,市场会在最糟糕的情况还没发生前对其定价。

  3、现在最大的问题是,市场站在特朗普这一边,预计美联储今年会降息4次或更多。过去美联储“降息预期”只是单纯的被市场绑架,只需通过几场讲话便能扭转市场预期。而如今市场有了“带头大哥”。

  过去,美联储讲话可以轻松化解危机;如今,市场更在意的是特朗普的下一条推文。卖掉美国的不是资本,而是美国自己。(来源:华尔街情报圈)

  来源:Gangtise投研

  第四范式06682.HK)2024全年业绩投资者与分析师交流会:2024年,公司业务强劲增长,总收入达52.61亿元,同比增长25.1%,利润22.45亿元,毛利率42.7%。全年净亏损2.69亿元,同比缩窄70.4%。先知AI平台收入36.76亿元,同比增长46.7%,占收入比69.9%,稳居中国机器学习平台市场份额第一。客户基础扩大,标杆用户数161个,老客户留存率90%,标杆用户平均收入超1900万,净收入增长率110%。研发费用20.7亿元,费用率41.2%,推出先知AI平台5.0,深度融合生成式AI能力。公司致力于技术落地,不会因医院部署效果不好而降价。

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