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黄子佼康熙来了:重温的精彩剧情,感受独特魅力
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   最新数据统计,青岛房地产市场在今年一季度呈现出明显的结构性变化,二手住宅市场交易活跃度领跑新建住宅市场。

  从单月数据上来看,3月份青岛新建商品住宅成交6428套,同期二手住宅成交6543套,实现反超。这种趋势在一季度整体表现中更为显著:1-3月份,青岛新建商品住宅累计成交12256套,二手住宅成交14422套。

  市场分析人士指出,这一数据反映出当前购房者置业观念的转变,对成熟配套的二手住宅接受度更高;价格方面,二手住宅展现出更强的性价比优势。

  二手房为何“出圈”

  中国海洋大学MBA教育中心副主任、创新创业研究中心主任姜忠辉认为,二手房之所以“出圈”,是因为展现出“所见即所得”的显著优势:其多分布于成熟城区,享有优质教育、医疗、交通资源;商业配套完善,生活便利性高;能够即时入住,有效规避期房交付的不确定性风险;同时议价空间较大,性价比优势明显。另外,新建住宅在供应结构上可能存在一定失衡,部分区域和户型供应与市场需求不匹配,影响其成交量。“像即墨、胶州等远郊区域,新房库存去化周期超20个月,即使单价已跌破5000元/平方米,去化依旧困难,而核心区域如市南、市北等新增供应几近停滞。”也因此促使主城核心区的二手房较好成交。

  与此同时,2024年下半年以来的政策“组合拳”对二手房市场形成直接利好,包括LPR持续下调带来的房贷成本降低、限购政策的松绑、“认房不认贷”政策的全面落地以及公积金使用政策的优化等。

  市场一线反馈也印证了这一趋势。从业十余年的中艺兴房产业务总监付杰介绍,春节之后青岛二手房市场表现不错,尤其是3月份,他所在的大区成交量多达400多套,和去年同期相比,市场更活跃了。除了二手房的较大优势,“还得益于春节后积压的购房需求集中释放,以及学区房置业窗口期的刚性需求。另外,最重要的是价格到位了,大家的观望情绪没有之前那么严重,尤其是对刚需和刚改来说,入手的时机已经成熟。”

楼市格局将重塑

  据锐理数据统计,3月份青岛二手住宅销售6543套,销售面积65.67万平方米,销售套数、销售面积较去年同期分别上涨12.3%、14.8%。今年1-3月份,青岛二手住宅成交14422套、销售面积148.79万平方米,销售套数、销售面积和去年同期相比,分别上涨了7.6%、10.3%。

  3月份青岛新建商品住宅销售6428套;1-3月份,青岛新建商品住宅成交12256套。

  无论是3月单月成交,还是今年一季度成交,青岛二手住宅的成交量,均已超过了新建住宅成交量。

  二手房“逆袭”新房,意味着楼市将全面重塑。

  姜忠辉认为,对于青岛房地产行业而言,二手住宅成交量超过新建住宅,意味着市场从增量开发逐步向存量激活转变。过去房地产行业以新建住宅开发为主,如今二手房市场活跃,将促使房企调整发展策略,更加注重产品品质提升和服务优化,比如精装交付、智能家居等。同时,在存量房市场挖掘新业务机会,开发商可能需从“重开发”转向“轻资产”模式,例如通过持有运营、城市更新等方式参与存量市场,而非单纯依赖新房销售,如参与二手房改造、租赁等业务。 

  “从市场格局看,二手房市场活跃将加剧房地产市场竞争,推动行业整合和洗牌。中小房企若无法适应市场变化,在产品和服务上缺乏竞争力,可能面临被淘汰风险,行业集中度将进一步提高。”姜忠辉说。

  从对青岛整体经济影响来看,二手房交易活跃能带动相关产业发展,如装修、家电、家具等行业。姜忠辉认为,购房者购买二手房后通常会装修和购置家具家电,从而拉动这些产业消费,促进经济增长。二手房市场繁荣有助于稳定房地产市场,进而稳定经济。房地产行业关联众多上下游产业,稳定的房地产市场对整个产业链的稳定发展至关重要,能避免因房地产市场大幅波动对经济造成冲击。活跃的二手房市场有利于优化城市住房资源配置,使住房资源更合理地分配到有需求的居民手中,提高住房使用效率。

  “对城市经济可持续发展具有积极意义。”姜忠辉表示,房地产交易的增加也会带来相关税收的增长,如契税、增值税等,可为地方财政提供更多的资金支持,有助于城市的基础设施建设和公共服务改善。

 好房子保值抗跌  

  在崂山板块从事二手房业务的杨经理表示,目前他的客群主要聚焦在售价300-400万元左右的房子,属于偏改善类。“房源五花八门,差异分化非常大。”他举例说,张村河板块的某二手房,目前已经比刚开盘时候跌去了1万元左右/平方米,而一路之隔的另一个小区,保值率较高,“像小高层套三、高层套四,以及106平方米和113平方米的户型都比较受市场青睐。”

  杨经理说,房源价格差异大,取决于房龄、配套、板块位置,“最重要的是产品力。”上面提到的贬值大的小区,主要楼间距不行,拖了后腿,而对面小区就不存在这个问题。甚至有崂山前海一线的房源,房价不但没跌,反而升值了,“最核心的原因是好房子不愁卖,尤其是比较稀缺的高端豪宅基本不受大环境影响。”

  锐理数据山东区域公司总经理刘元婧建议,和新房一样,二手房意向购房者也要看开发商品牌,在流通领域,口碑起到了至关重要的作用。另外配套、物业服务、交通等方面也要做到细致考虑,比如可以先选择租住一段时间,对所在房源进行一个全面的体验,这是期房无法实现的。

  姜忠辉认为,若二手房市场活跃度持续提升,可能推动青岛从“增量开发”向“存量盘活”转型,促进城市更新、租赁市场发展等,助力经济结构向更可持续的方向调整,这对青岛整体经济的稳定增长和资源优化配置具有重要意义。但需警惕潜在风险并推动长期可持续发展,未来政策应兼顾市场活力与风险防控,引导房地产从“规模扩张”转向“质量提升”与“结构优化”。(青岛日报/观海新闻记者 李鹏飞)

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