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  国际货币基金组织(IMF)表示,亚洲央行总体上有降息空间来支持内需,并抵消全球贸易战持续的影响,地区状况比亚洲金融危机前要好得多。

  IMF亚太部负责人KrishnaSrinivasan周五表示,地区通胀率与中央银行的目标范围相当甚至更低,这应该有利于进一步放松货币政策。 

  虽然这可能会削弱货币,尤其是如果美国利率在更长时间内保持较高水平,“但我们建议各国让汇率成为减震器,让货币政策留出调整空间以应对关税冲击,”Srinivasan说。

  美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策可能会减缓全球经济,依赖出口的亚洲地区势将成为受冲击最严重的地区之一。Srinivasan表示,IMF预计亚洲经济今年将仅增长3.9%,2026年将增长4%,将遭受外部需求疲软和美国关税政策带来的双重打击。

  他说,这比IMF先前的预测累计下调0.8个百分点,是疫情以来的最大调整。他说,新的预测也仍面临“重大下行风险”,这取决于与美国的贸易谈判结果。

  从好的方面看,他说亚洲地区的基本面比1997-1998年亚洲金融危机期间要好得多。当时IMF救助了印度尼西亚、韩国和泰国。Srinivasan表示,差异包括可信的政策框架、独立的央行以及资产负债表中较少的货币错配。

  IMF敦促亚洲着眼于国内经济来推动增长,并进行必要的结构性改革以刺激消费和投资。

 4月25日,两面针披露2025年第一季度报告称,报告期公司实现营收2.4亿元,同比增长15.49%;亏损1417万元。从经营数据来看,两面针的经营状况难容乐观。

  收入增长难掩盈利恶化,非经常性收益难撑门面

  2025年一季度,两面针实现营业收入2.40亿元,同比增长15.49%,但归母净利润亏损扩大至1416.95万元。这一矛盾数据揭示了公司经营中的深层风险。

  尽管营收增长看似稳健,但增长质量堪忧。日化板块作为核心业务,贡献了绝大多数收入,但该部分毛利率水平较低,远低于云南白药等头部品牌。低毛利率的背后,反映出公司在高端市场缺乏竞争力,产品附加值不足,被迫依赖低端市场维持规模。而营收增长的主要驱动力来自酒店用品业务的扩张,但这类业务的利润空间有限,难以支撑长期盈利。

  值得注意的是,公司净利润的恶化与非经常性收益的消失密切相关。2024年同期,两面针通过交易性金融资产公允价值变动获得8774万元收益,而2025年一季度这一收益几乎归零。若剔除非经常性损益,扣非净利润同比下滑的趋势进一步暴露了主业的疲软。

  双主业失焦与转型路径模糊,经营风险持续累积

  两面针长期宣称的“日化+医药”双主业战略,在2025年一季度进一步暴露失衡。

  日化板块护城河崩塌。曾经的“中药牙膏”标签已被云南白药、片仔癀等品牌取代,两面针在消费者认知中或逐渐沦为普通日化品牌。尽管公司试图通过绿色产品(如竹牙刷、再生瓶)寻求差异化,但定价过高导致市场接受度极低。

  医药板块陷入战略摇摆。子公司亿康药业的核心产品“苍鹅鼻炎片”线上销售一般,未能突破区域市场限制。尽管医药板块毛利率高于日化板块,但研发投入不足、缺乏爆款产品的现状,使得该板块难以为公司提供增长动能。更严峻的是,公司投入5亿元设立的大健康产业基金尚无实质性项目落地,反而因管理成本增加拖累利润。

  转型战略的“四不像”困局,进一步加剧了经营风险。公司既未在日化领域建立技术壁垒,又未在医药板块形成产品矩阵,反而因盲目布局大健康产业分散资源。

  结语:破局需壮士断腕,聚焦与取舍成关键

  两面针的困境,本质上是传统品牌在消费升级与产业变革中的典型迷失。收入增长掩盖不了盈利能力的退化,非经常性收益的波动更凸显主业的脆弱。未来,公司需以壮士断腕的决心进行战略取舍:一方面聚焦日化主业,通过产品升级与渠道重构重建竞争力;另一方面剥离低效资产,关停冗余产能以降低固定成本。若继续在“大健康”等概念中空转,恐难逃市场份额持续萎缩的命运。

  周五标普500指数期货延续涨势,此前华尔街已连续三日收高,且谷歌母公司Alphabet最新季度业绩表现亮眼。

  标普500指数期货上涨0.45%,纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.51%,道琼斯工业平均指数期货持平。

  Alphabet股价盘后跳涨约5%,因其一季度营收与利润双双超预期。作为“科技七巨头”之一,该公司业绩缓解了市场对科技股疲软的担忧。英特尔股价下跌逾5%,因其发布悲观业绩指引并宣布将大幅削减运营与资本支出。

  周四美国三大股指集体收涨,实现三日连阳,主要得益于科技巨头的反弹。过去一个月,因全球贸易紧张局势升级,科技股持续承压。

  自4月2日特朗普宣布“对等”关税政策后,股市陷入震荡格局。

  Ameriprise首席市场策略师AnthonySaglimbene指出:“市场只需一点火花就能摆脱低迷,当前涨势正是如此。但股市仍将波动,下周科技巨头财报将主导指数走向。”

  截至周四收盘,标普500指数本周累涨近4%,道指与纳指分别上涨超2%和5%。

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