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  国际货币基金组织(IMF)表示,亚洲央行总体上有降息空间来支持内需,并抵消全球贸易战持续的影响,地区状况比亚洲金融危机前要好得多。

  IMF亚太部负责人KrishnaSrinivasan周五表示,地区通胀率与中央银行的目标范围相当甚至更低,这应该有利于进一步放松货币政策。 

  虽然这可能会削弱货币,尤其是如果美国利率在更长时间内保持较高水平,“但我们建议各国让汇率成为减震器,让货币政策留出调整空间以应对关税冲击,”Srinivasan说。

  美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税政策可能会减缓全球经济,依赖出口的亚洲地区势将成为受冲击最严重的地区之一。Srinivasan表示,IMF预计亚洲经济今年将仅增长3.9%,2026年将增长4%,将遭受外部需求疲软和美国关税政策带来的双重打击。

  他说,这比IMF先前的预测累计下调0.8个百分点,是疫情以来的最大调整。他说,新的预测也仍面临“重大下行风险”,这取决于与美国的贸易谈判结果。

  从好的方面看,他说亚洲地区的基本面比1997-1998年亚洲金融危机期间要好得多。当时IMF救助了印度尼西亚、韩国和泰国。Srinivasan表示,差异包括可信的政策框架、独立的央行以及资产负债表中较少的货币错配。

  IMF敦促亚洲着眼于国内经济来推动增长,并进行必要的结构性改革以刺激消费和投资。

 4月25日,两面针披露2025年第一季度报告称,报告期公司实现营收2.4亿元,同比增长15.49%;亏损1417万元。从经营数据来看,两面针的经营状况难容乐观。

  收入增长难掩盈利恶化,非经常性收益难撑门面

  2025年一季度,两面针实现营业收入2.40亿元,同比增长15.49%,但归母净利润亏损扩大至1416.95万元。这一矛盾数据揭示了公司经营中的深层风险。

  尽管营收增长看似稳健,但增长质量堪忧。日化板块作为核心业务,贡献了绝大多数收入,但该部分毛利率水平较低,远低于云南白药等头部品牌。低毛利率的背后,反映出公司在高端市场缺乏竞争力,产品附加值不足,被迫依赖低端市场维持规模。而营收增长的主要驱动力来自酒店用品业务的扩张,但这类业务的利润空间有限,难以支撑长期盈利。

  值得注意的是,公司净利润的恶化与非经常性收益的消失密切相关。2024年同期,两面针通过交易性金融资产公允价值变动获得8774万元收益,而2025年一季度这一收益几乎归零。若剔除非经常性损益,扣非净利润同比下滑的趋势进一步暴露了主业的疲软。

  双主业失焦与转型路径模糊,经营风险持续累积

  两面针长期宣称的“日化+医药”双主业战略,在2025年一季度进一步暴露失衡。

  日化板块护城河崩塌。曾经的“中药牙膏”标签已被云南白药、片仔癀等品牌取代,两面针在消费者认知中或逐渐沦为普通日化品牌。尽管公司试图通过绿色产品(如竹牙刷、再生瓶)寻求差异化,但定价过高导致市场接受度极低。

  医药板块陷入战略摇摆。子公司亿康药业的核心产品“苍鹅鼻炎片”线上销售一般,未能突破区域市场限制。尽管医药板块毛利率高于日化板块,但研发投入不足、缺乏爆款产品的现状,使得该板块难以为公司提供增长动能。更严峻的是,公司投入5亿元设立的大健康产业基金尚无实质性项目落地,反而因管理成本增加拖累利润。

  转型战略的“四不像”困局,进一步加剧了经营风险。公司既未在日化领域建立技术壁垒,又未在医药板块形成产品矩阵,反而因盲目布局大健康产业分散资源。

  结语:破局需壮士断腕,聚焦与取舍成关键

  两面针的困境,本质上是传统品牌在消费升级与产业变革中的典型迷失。收入增长掩盖不了盈利能力的退化,非经常性收益的波动更凸显主业的脆弱。未来,公司需以壮士断腕的决心进行战略取舍:一方面聚焦日化主业,通过产品升级与渠道重构重建竞争力;另一方面剥离低效资产,关停冗余产能以降低固定成本。若继续在“大健康”等概念中空转,恐难逃市场份额持续萎缩的命运。

  周五标普500指数期货延续涨势,此前华尔街已连续三日收高,且谷歌母公司Alphabet最新季度业绩表现亮眼。

  标普500指数期货上涨0.45%,纳斯达克100指数期货上涨0.51%,道琼斯工业平均指数期货持平。

  Alphabet股价盘后跳涨约5%,因其一季度营收与利润双双超预期。作为“科技七巨头”之一,该公司业绩缓解了市场对科技股疲软的担忧。英特尔股价下跌逾5%,因其发布悲观业绩指引并宣布将大幅削减运营与资本支出。

  周四美国三大股指集体收涨,实现三日连阳,主要得益于科技巨头的反弹。过去一个月,因全球贸易紧张局势升级,科技股持续承压。

  自4月2日特朗普宣布“对等”关税政策后,股市陷入震荡格局。

  Ameriprise首席市场策略师AnthonySaglimbene指出:“市场只需一点火花就能摆脱低迷,当前涨势正是如此。但股市仍将波动,下周科技巨头财报将主导指数走向。”

  截至周四收盘,标普500指数本周累涨近4%,道指与纳指分别上涨超2%和5%。

 

  荷兰国际集团外汇策略主管ChrisTurner在研究报告中指出,若美国股市延续近期涨势——受市场对贸易紧张局势缓和的乐观情绪驱动,欧元兑美元汇率可能进一步承压。

  Turner表示,当前美元继续保持与美国股票市场的正向联动关系。若美股进一步温和上涨,可能推动欧元/美元回落至1.1250区域。

  不过Turner补充称,若投资者重新担忧美元储备货币地位遭受结构性损害的疑虑浮现,结构性美元卖盘或在该水平重现。

  美

  来源:金十数据

  日本财务大臣当面告诉贝森特,美国最近的关税措施非常令人遗憾,并强烈敦促华盛顿方面重新考虑。

  日本财务大臣加藤胜信(KatsunobuKato)表示,周四他与美国财政部长贝森特的会谈中,根本没有提及具体的汇率目标,但他确实强烈敦促美方重新考虑其关税措施。

  加藤表示:“美方完全没有谈论汇率的目标水平,也没有谈论管理货币的框架。”加藤补充说,双方确认将继续就正在进行的双边贸易谈判密切讨论货币问题。

  这是加藤和贝森特首次面对面会谈,此前两人曾在今年1月进行过在线会晤。会谈前,外界猜测美方可能寻求日方在汇率问题上做出一些让步,因为特朗普曾多次指责日本利用日元疲软来获得竞争性贸易优势。

  贝森特曾在对冲基金经理生涯中专注于货币领域,他在周三被问及是否在与日本接触时寻求此类目标时表示,“绝对没有货币目标”。

  加藤表示,他和贝森特在会谈中还确认,汇率“应由市场决定,且过度波动可能对经济和金融稳定产生负面影响”。

  加藤还表示,他告诉贝森特,美国最近的关税措施非常令人遗憾,并强烈敦促华盛顿方面重新考虑。

  特朗普已任命贝森特——他与日本有着数十年的渊源——作为与东京进行贸易谈判的代表。世界各国都在关注这些谈判,将其视为其他国家未来可能如何应对的试金石。观察人士也在关注新协议是否会涉及货币问题。

  今年以来,日元兑美元已升值约10%,是G10货币中表现最好的货币之一。日元走强首先是由于市场押注日本央行将继续加息,最近则是在美国资产波动期间作为避险资产受到青睐。

  自贝森特将货币问题与非关税壁垒和补贴一起列为希望与日本讨论的领域以来,日元出现了剧烈波动。另外,特朗普上个月指责中国和日本的汇率做法让美国处于不利地位。

  本周,日元再次剧烈波动,周二在东京交易时段一度升至去年9月以来的最高水平,随后回落,因为交易员权衡了特朗普及其政府在关税和美联储问题上不断变化的信号。

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