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石破茂出手了!

据悉,日本要员于16日至18日赴美进行关税谈判,可望成为与美国最早协商的国家之一。此时,日本首相石破茂定了一个强硬的调子。他表示,不会做出重大让步,也不急于达成协议。这可能是石破茂对美发出的“迄今为止最强烈警告”。

与此同时,美国财长贝森特周二(15日)暗示,要完成与主要国家的关税协议,可能需要比特朗普政府上周宣布的90天暂缓期更长的时间。

最强烈警告

美日即将展开谈判,那么这将会给市场带来怎样的标杆意义呢?让人意外的是,日本率先出手了。4月15日,日方宣布美国谷歌公司违反日本《反垄断法》,对美国大型公司发出第一份行政终止令,显示日本当局正采取更强硬的立场。

从以往的经验来看,日本在日美关系与谈判中多处于从属和弱势地位,日本此次强硬回应,预示着日本以及一些盟友与美国在关税问题上的较量将更加激烈。

石破茂14日出席众议院预算委员会会议时表示,排除对美国产品加征关税进行报复的可能性,因为在食品和能源价格高涨的形势下,采取报复性关税不符合日本和国民的利益。不过他强调,关税谈判中,日本不准备作出重大让步,也不会急于达成协议,操之过急容易失败。

据路透社报道,石破茂此番言论是在定于17日举行的日美关税谈判开始前发表的,预计谈判的主题包括关税、非关税壁垒以及汇率等。报道称,这是石破茂对美政府损害世界经济的决定发出的“迄今为止最强烈警告”。

彭博评论称,特朗普能否与众多国家达成关税协议,日本将成为试金石。日本是首批与美国举行正式关税谈判的国家之一,这将考验特朗普是否真的愿意与其他国家达成关税协议。

另有媒体报道,美方不会真正谈判,只是(借此)进行敲诈。日本如果相信对方,将会失去更多,因为霸凌者总是会不停索取。美方绝不会给日本“好果子吃”。日本与其给美方塞满一堆使其不劳而获的赠品,不如坚定立场。

摇摆的风险

据日产知情人士透露,该公司将在5月至7月期间削减其最畅销的美国车型RogueSUV在日本的产量,成为最新一家因美国新进口关税而改变生产计划的全球汽车制造商。

特朗普决定对海外生产的汽车征收25%的关税,此举颠覆了全球汽车供应链。日本第三大汽车制造商日产汽车比一些竞争对手面临更大的风险。美国是其最大的市场,占其去年汽车销量的四分之一以上,其中许多汽车在日本或墨西哥制造。

虽然特朗普周一表示,他正在考虑修改汽车税,因为汽车制造商“需要一点时间”。但日产在一份声明中表示,正在审查其生产和供应链运营,以找到实现效率和可持续性的最佳解决方案。该公司表示,将致力于适应市场变化,同时优先考虑劳动力和生产能力。声明称:“我们将采取深思熟虑和慎重的态度,同时兼顾短期和长期影响。”

其实,特朗普的关税政策是摇摆的,短期可能推迟征收,但长期变数很大。美东时间4月11日晚间,美国海关宣布,根据特朗普总统当日签署备忘录,对集成电路、通信设备、智能手机、显示模组等豁免征收“对等关税”。但很快,美国联邦政府官报就显示,美国政府正在推动对药物和半导体进口的调查。特朗普上周日还说,将在未来一周宣布对进口半导体产品的关税税率。

今天早盘,也就是美股盘后,英伟达、AMD等公司股价更是因为出口令而暴跌。亚太股市早盘也是全线杀跌,MSCI亚太指数早盘跌幅扩大至1%,日经指数跌超0.7%。

另据彭博周三报道,现货黄金再创历史新高。由于贸易战不断升级,引发人们对全球经济衰退前景的担忧,今年来黄金价格已大涨逾20%。

随着投资者增持黄金支持的ETF,且各国央行继续囤积黄金,主要银行对未来几季的黄金前景仍持乐观态度。高盛集团预测,到2026年中期,金价将上涨至每盎司4000美元。

美国财长释放的信号

美国财长贝森特当地时间周二(15日)暗示,要完成与主要国家的关税协议,可能需要比特朗普政府上周宣布的90天暂缓期更长的时间。

贝森特周二向YahooFinance说:“我方正在快速行动,但在90天内,我方会有一份完整文件以及一份正式法律文件吗?不太可能。”

“但我认为,可以与他们达成实质性明确共识。倘若我们达成共识,他们同意降低关税,降低非关税壁垒,降低工业和劳动力补贴,我认为我们就可以向前迈进。”贝森特说。

知情人士透露,贝森特已将英国、澳洲、韩国、印度和日本列为新贸易协议首要目标。消息人士说,贝森特告诉盟友,这些国家是他的首要目标,他一直在与这些国家的官员保持联系。

责编:战术恒

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