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专题:聚焦2025年IMF和世行春季年会

  欧洲央行管委RobertHolzmann称,美国关税的影响可能会是压低欧元区消费者价格,而不是造成新一轮通胀。

  这位立场一向鹰派的决策者还表示,形势不明朗意味着欧洲央行的下一次利率决定是“完全开放的”。

  “我们不知道最终会走向何方,”Holzmann在华盛顿出席国际货币基金组织(IMF)春季会议时接受了采访。但他表示,他同意行长拉加德的看法,即到目前为止,美国关税消息产生的净影响似乎是推低而非推高通胀。”

  自去年6月以来欧洲央行已降息七次,该行官员正在考虑下一步如何行动,他们必须评估各种因素,包括商业信心恶化、欧元走强以及未来几周关税将如何演变。 

  在Holzmann发表了偏鸽派的言论后,交易员们加大对欧洲央行的降息押注,笃定6月会议将降息25个基点。掉期市场走势显示年底前该央行将降息65个基点,意味着还将有两次25个基点的降息,而第三次降息的概率为60%。

  来源:华夏时报

  今年一季度,银行显著加快了对不良贷款的处置力度。

  据银行业信贷资产登记流转中心(下称“银登中心”)近日发布的《2025年一季度不良贷款转让业务统计》显示,一季度不良贷款转让业务总成交额达483亿元(按未偿本息统计口径,下同),其中银行机构作为出让方的交易占比70.23%。具体而言,个人不良贷款批量转让业务(下称“批量个人业务”)规模达到了370.4亿元,同比激增761%,批量个人业务中个人消费贷款占比超七成。

  记者在上述报告中注意到,一季度批量个人业务平均折扣率远低于对公业务,仅为4.1%,多数资产包以低于1折的价格成交。

  对此,受访人士普遍认为,由于结构性差异,部分个人还款能力持续承压,导致违约率攀升。而个贷不良资产普遍收债难度大、成本高且周期长,多重因素导致转让价格的走低。

  个贷不良平均折扣率低于1折

  4月24日,河北银行发布今年首期个人不良贷款(信用卡透支)转让公告,该笔不良贷款未偿本息总额为3832.98万元,公开竞价起始价仅为153.82万元,相当于打了0.4折。

  同日,平安银行发布的关于个人不良贷款(个人消费贷款)转让公告显示,其转让的一笔个人不良贷款未偿本息总额达1.77亿元,公开竞价起始价仅为180万元。

  据银登中心数据显示,批量个人业务的平均折扣率及平均本金回收率进一步走低,相关数据水平远低于对公业务。

  具体来看,今年一季度批量个人业务平均折扣率为4.1%,较去年同期的4.6%下降0.5个百分点;平均本金回收率为6.9%,较去年同期的8.8%下降1.9个百分点。从资产类型来看,个人消费贷款平均折扣率低至3.8%,平均本金回收率为6.5%。一季度成交的128个项目中,有88个项目的折扣率低于10%。而批量对公业务方面,今年一季度平均折扣率为15%,平均本金回收率为31.7%。

  “个贷不良资产主要是无抵押的债权,收债难度较大,成本高且周期长。逾期时间越长,回收可能性越低,价格折扣也越大,件均越大,同样会影响回款效果。此外,市场供需关系也是影响转让价格的重要因素,当前市场面临较大的处置压力,也导致了转让价格的走低。”新智派新质生产力会客厅联合创始发起人袁帅向《华夏时报》记者表示。

  “深度逾期回收难度非常大,像河北银行的这笔转让,加权平均逾期天数已经超过2500天了,这都对资产包价格有影响!”某农商行人士向记者解释道。他亦表示,个贷不良主体多,借款分散,催收不易,“低价转让也算是‘及时止损’了!”

  银行加大不良处置力度

  今年两会期间,国家金融监督管理总局局长李云泽向媒体表示,2024年不良资产处置力度进一步加大,全年共处置不良资产3.8万亿元,“创历年之最,守住了不发生系统性风险的底线”。

  银登中心数据显示,今年一季度不良贷款转让业务总成交额达483亿元,其中批量个人业务转让规模达到了370.4亿元,相较于2024年同期的43亿元同比激增761%。

  记者致电该中心获悉,批量个人业务数据未就出让方性质进一步划分,相关数据涵盖了银行及消费金融公司。但从整体数据看,483亿元的成交总额中银行机构(包括国有银行、股份银行、城商行、农村中小银行机构)成交总额达339.2亿元,占比超七成。

  多家银行在2024年年报中明确表示将进一步加大不良贷款处置力度。

  如平安银行在年报中表示,2024年国内经济整体向好,但呈现结构性差异,部分个人客户的还款能力仍持续承压,个人贷款不良率较年初上升。该行持续升级风险模型,提升客户识别能力,实现更精准的客群分类,同时主动调整客群和资产结构,实施差异化风险管理政策,推进优质资产投放,加大不良贷款处置。

  宜宾银行亦在年报中表示,该行的不良贷款率由截至2023年年底的1.76%下降至截至2024年年底的1.68%,主要是由于其加大信用风险管理力度,改善了资产质量。此外,该行亦在收回个人不良贷款方面进行了持续努力,根据各类不良贷款的实际情况,采取谈判清收、司法处置、以物抵贷等措施加大不良贷款处置。

  “银行加速出清不良贷款主要受市场环境和政策推动因素影响。”袁帅表示。市场方面,部分个人资产状况恶化,导致个人业务不良资产增多,推动了转让需求的上升;政策方面,个人不良贷款批量转让试点机构范围扩大,更多银行获得批量转让许可,提升了银行处置不良资产的积极性。“同时,金融机构处置不良贷款的理念发生转变,从以往倾向自行催收转变为提高效率而选择批量转让。”

  “从内部因素看,不良贷款对银行利润的侵蚀不容小觑,大量个贷不良贷款积压,使得银行资金被长期占用,资金周转效率大幅降低。”中国投资协会上市公司投资专业委员会副会长支培元提到。他表示,在当前日益激烈的市场竞争环境下,资产质量已经成为衡量银行竞争力的重要指标。因此,银行通过进一步清理不良贷款来提升自身竞争力显得尤为重要。

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