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  华尔街见闻

  对美联储独立性的担忧使投资者加大抛售美债的力度,美债作为避险资产的信用也受到了质疑。分析指出,如果美联储如特朗普所期望的转向对通胀更为宽松的立场,或者特朗普提前提名“影子主席”干预货币政策,美债市场将进一步下跌。

  美联储独立性担忧弥漫,投资者加速抛售美债。

  近几周来,由于特朗普多次施压鲍威尔降息,对美联储独立性的担忧加剧了美国国债的抛售。本周,10年期美国国债收益率一度突破4.4%,接近本月早些时候市场动荡时达到的水平。

  这一担忧推高了美债收益率的风险溢价,导致其作为避险资产的信用也受到了质疑。相关数据显示,与安全的德国国债相比,投资者因持有风险被认为更高的美国国债而获得的溢价约为1.9个百分点,高于本月早些时候的不到1.3个百分点。

  M&GInvestments的固定收益首席投资官AndrewChorlton警告说:

  如果美联储真的转向,美债可能进一步下跌

  投资者担心,特朗普可能会成功地将美国货币政策转向对通胀更为宽松的立场,以实现其降低利率的目标。

  有分析指出,如果市场察觉到这种转变,即使特朗普已收回解雇鲍威尔的威胁,美债尤其是长期债券也将受损。

  德意志银行美国利率研究主管MatthewRaskin认为,总统仍可能继续削弱美联储的独立性,通过提前提名继任者,制造一个在鲍威尔仍在任时就影响货币政策预期的“影子主席”。

  目前,关于可能人选的猜测已经开始,曾被考虑担任财政部长的美联储前理事凯文·沃什(KevinWarsh)被视为可能的替代者。沃什去年曾严厉批评美联储的政策,但近期对决策基本保持沉默。

  CapitalEconomics在一份报告中写道:“如果沃什想要这个职位,他将不得不妥协其更传统的共和党货币主义观点,并向特朗普和低利率宣誓效忠。”

  报告还提及,特朗普国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特(KevinHassett)是另一位潜在替代者。

  DoubleLine的Campbell表示,下一任美联储主席的任命“充满风险”,尤其是在全球投资者“开始质疑其投资的基本基础”之际。Campbell警告说,提名并暗示非传统人选——或为美联储政策转向铺路——可能引发美国国债相对于其他债券市场进一步下跌。

  风险提示及免责条款

  市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

  新任CEO陈立武在其首个英特尔财报电话会议上向分析师勾勒了公司的战略蓝图,同时警告称:“这并非一蹴而就的解决方案。”

  他表示将全面梳理英特尔现有产品,针对机器人、用户任务代理等AI市场新兴趋势进行优化升级。

  这项挑战的艰巨性在于,如今的英伟达(NVDA.O)已不仅销售芯片——其业务覆盖从芯片、线缆到软件编译器的整套数据中心解决方案。陈立武周四表示,英特尔将采用类似的系统性策略。

  首席财务官大卫·辛斯纳透露,短期内英特尔不会进行更多收购。“当前首要任务是改善资产负债表,”他强调。此举意味着陈立武最终整合统一AI战略的努力将主要依托自主研发。

  “我们正采取整体性策略重塑产品矩阵,使其适配新兴AI工作负载,”陈立武表示,“目标成为客户的首选平台,这要求我们彻底革新设计与工程理念,提前预判客户需求。”

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