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  涨!涨!涨!近期,国际金价狂飙,接连突破3300美元/盎司、3350美元/盎司的重要关口,不断刷新历史纪录。

  截至4月21日,COMEX黄金期货价格年内累计上涨27%。截至8:58,现货黄金涨幅扩大至1%,再创历史新高至3360美元/盎司。美元指数再度下挫,美元指数跌破99关口,是近三年来首次,现报98.74。

  在零售端,今日周大福(01929.HK)、潮宏基(002345.SZ)、六福珠宝、周六福、周大生(002867.SZ)的首饰金价均为1028元/克,周生生(00116.HK)、老庙黄金的首饰金价为1022元/克,老凤祥(600612.SH)的首饰金价为1023元/克。

  金价狂飙,有消费者贷款买金

  据红星新闻报道,有投资者刘乐(化名)表示,以前在黄金还是558元/克的时候,她就买了200克黄金,后来家里急用钱,在609元/克的时候卖掉这些黄金,挣了1万元。今年金价大涨,她再次购买黄金,总共花费约30万元,其中17万元来自银行贷款,贷款1年,每月需还款500多元。

  对于贷款买金,刘乐并不建议,“首先要考虑如果跌1万元能不能接受,不建议贷太多款,尽量用自己的闲钱,有家人帮衬也可以。”刘乐说,她家做点小买卖,钱都在货上,还款压力并不大,因此才向银行贷款。刘乐还强调,虽然自己已经挣到钱,但现在为时尚早,“黄金谁也看不透到底涨到多少,跌到多少”。

  社交媒体上,网友们将贷款买金形容为“借钱蹦极”。有贷款买金的投资者在社交媒体上记录,每天起床后第一件事就是看金价的涨跌,其心情随着金价的起伏而波动。红星资本局注意到,这些投资者除了向银行贷款买金,还有人向互联网平台申请网贷,或者使用花呗来买黄金,也有人研究如何使用消费贷买金。

  有人弃存单买黄金,警惕花式买金风险

  据《21财料》栏目统计,年轻人成为黄金消费主力,但疯狂花式买金背后风险开始隐现:有人用信用卡套现、消费贷买黄金,甚至有人为买金转让4%利率的大额存单,利息都不要了。

  多家机构提示投资风险

  据21世纪经济报道记者统计,由于金价涨势凶猛,多只黄金ETF已经紧急“谢客”,银行、交易所也频频提示风险。

  4月16日,嘉实基金公告,嘉实上海金ETF发起联接暂停大额申购,以保障基金业绩与投资者利益。

  公告指出,自2024年4月18日起,嘉实上海金ETF发起联接的单个开放日每个基金账户的累计申购(含转换转入及定期定额投资)金额不得超过100万元。如投资者提交的申购金额超过100万元,嘉实基金将有权拒绝相关申请。

  嘉实基金表示,此次暂停大额申购的决定旨在控制基金的规模,确保基金的投资策略得以有效执行,降低投资风险,从而维护基金份额持有人的利益。同时,通过控制规模,嘉实基金能够更好地管理基金资产,优化投资组合,提高基金的整体业绩。

  永赢基金4月16日发布公告称,永赢中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF将于4月18日起暂停申购、赎回、转换及定期定额投资业务的公告。此外,国泰基金、华夏基金、华安基金旗下的黄金股ETF也均在4月15日发布相关公告。

  “限购主要是因为黄金今年的涨幅明显,相关ETF产品的价格也跟着水涨船高,资金流入速度远超资产配置节奏,需防范因申赎波动导致的净值偏差风险。”排排网财富研究员卜益力表示。

  除了基金公司之外,多家银行也发布关于贵金属业务市场风险提示的公告,提醒投资者提高贵金属业务的风险防范意识,理性投资。

  4月14日,建设银行在官网发布《关于近期贵金属业务市场风险提示的公告》称,近期国内外贵金属价格波动加剧,市场风险提升。请投资者提高贵金属业务的风险防范意识,合理控制仓位,及时关注持仓情况和保证金余额变化情况,理性投资。这已经是建设银行近一个月的第二次风险提示了,此前3月下旬,也曾发布过类似提示。

  此外工商银行、兴业银行也都给出类似提示。3月18日,上海黄金交易所也要求会员单位提示投资者“合理控制仓位”,做好风险预案。

  黄金还能上车吗? 

  国际金价上蹿下跳,那么现在黄金投资到底还能参与吗?

  据21理财私房课,首先你要知道金价从2023年10月以来已经涨了超过70%,尤其今年以来涨得挺快,积累了一定风险。现在金价已经进入“高波动、高风险、高预期”的新阶段,这个时候投资就要注意控制风险了,尽量不要加杠杆,加杠杆炒黄金不但可能把本金亏完,甚至可能倒欠一笔债务。

  其次不要把黄金当股票炒,黄金作为避险资产适合中长期投资而不是短期炒作。买卖实物黄金还存在手续费高、变现难等问题。

  (来源:21世纪经济报道、红星新闻、Wind)

  每经编辑毕陆名

  4月21日,COMEX黄金一度涨逾2%,创纪录新高至3397.6美元/盎司,截至发稿报3394美元/盎司。现货黄金涨1.68%,报3383.02美元/盎司。

  A股市场,黄金概念股盘中持续拉升,晓程科技涨超16%,富春环保、潮宏基、鹏欣资源等涨停。

  消息面上,据央视新闻21日报道,俄罗斯总统普京19日在会见俄武装力量总参谋长格拉西莫夫时宣布,在复活节20日到来之际,从19日18时至21日0时,俄军将停止所有战斗行动,俄方希望乌克兰方面能效仿。然而,停火提议并未让冲突真正停歇。

  乌克兰总统泽连斯基21日凌晨表示,俄军20日违反其单方面宣布的停火承诺超2000次,包括96次突击和1882次炮击,主要集中在波克罗夫斯克方向。泽连斯基此前还表示,俄军几乎在所有主要战线均未履行其承诺的“静默”。

  俄外交部发言人扎哈罗娃20日则表示,乌方在停火期间动用美制“海马斯”火箭炮,蓄意破坏协议。俄罗斯国防部20日也发表声明称,乌克兰军队不顾复活节停火提议继续向俄方发动袭击,包括夜袭顿涅茨克地区俄军阵地,并动用无人机和炮击。声明强调,根据俄联邦武装力量最高统帅命令,俄在特别军事行动区域内的所有部队自19日18时起严格遵守停火规定,停留在先前占领的防线和阵地。

  对于黄金的后市走势,中信证券此前发布研报指出,近期黄金价格再创新高,主要是海外市场衰退交易与关税恐慌交易所致。综合通胀、增长、关税、地缘等多个因素来看,当前黄金行情难言结束。二季度至年中,海外市场或持续出现类滞胀交易的主线,并利好黄金表现,而关税和地缘冲突对黄金的扰动仍未到终点,在不确定性情绪积聚以及释放以前,上述因素对黄金的驱动难言结束。从资金面看,黄金多头对黄金当前走向的影响程度已经来到历史最高水平,不过交投规模以及热度并未达到历史“最拥挤”区间,资金仍有进一步加仓的空间。综合当前基本面和资金面数据,研报预计年内黄金行情可能仍未结束。

  高盛将2025年底黄金价格预测从3100美元/盎司上调至3300美元/盎司,预测区间调整至3250~3520美元/盎司。中期黄金价格风险仍偏向上行,在尾部风险情景下,到2025年底黄金价格可能超过每盎司4200美元。大型亚洲央行的买家可能会在未来3到6年内继续迅速购买黄金,以达到预估的潜在黄金储备目标范围。

  美国银行全球研究预计黄金在2025年和2026年的交易价格分别为每盎司3063美元和3350美元,之前的预测为每盎司2750美元和2625美元。

  每日经济新闻综合央视新闻、公开信息

  免责声明:本文内容与数据仅供参考,不构成投资建议,使用前请核实。据此操作,风险自担。

 

4月21日,欧洲央行管委会成员、法国央行行长FrancoisVilleroydeGalhau表示,通胀风险似乎已经减弱,欧洲央行准备对新数据迅速做出反应。他周五在接受采访时表示,欧洲央行必须为各种可能性做好准备,并指出政策制定者将在6月初的下次会议之前等待更多数据后,再决定是否进一步调整利率。FrancoisVilleroydeGalhau表示:“有一句我非常喜欢、至少从去年开始就常用的说法,那就是‘灵活的务实主义(agilepragmatism)’——它在三月有效,我们昨天的决定同样如此。”“我们已经准备好根据最新的信息迅速作出反应。”他补充称,由于欧元走强、原材料价格下降以及从中国等其他国家的进口,“当前通胀风险似乎相对较低,甚至很可能出现通胀下行风险”。

  另外,上周五,2027年票委、旧金山联储主席戴利表示,她对美联储将在2025年降息两次的预期感到安心,美国在通胀目标方面已“循序渐进地取得进展”。不过,她也指出,与一年前相比,通胀风险正在上升,目前的通胀水平依然需要美联储维持限制性的货币政策立场。她表示,未来降息并非不可能,但“并不具有紧迫性”。在谈及特朗普政府新一轮关税政策时,戴利认为,相关不确定性尚未影响到美国经济。她表示,并未听到企业裁员的消息,也没有迹象显示企业大规模撤回或暂停投资计划。不过,她补充道,企业在当前环境下可能变得“更不愿意冒险”。在就业方面,她指出,即便特朗普政府近期调整移民政策,对劳动力市场也不会造成“立竿见影”的影响。

  今日需要关注的数据有,加拿大截至4月18日当周全国经济信心指数和美国3月谘商会领先指标月率。

  美元指数

  上周五美元指数震荡下行,日线小幅收跌。除美联储的降息预期持续对汇价构成打压外,美元的避险买需降低也持续对汇价构成打压。不过,99.00关口附近所形成的技术面买盘和清淡的节假日市场交投氛围限制了汇价的下跌空间。亚市早盘,美元指数持续下滑,现汇价交投于98.60附近。今日关注99.00附近的压力情况,下方支撑在98.00附近。

  欧元/美元

  上周五欧元震荡上行,日线小幅收涨,现汇价交投于1.1470附近。美元指数在美联储降息预期和美国的避险买需降低打压下走软是支撑欧元走高的主要原因。不过,欧洲央行日前再次降息25个基点并释放了鸽派信号限制了汇价的反弹空间。今日关注1.1550附近的压力情况,下方支撑在1.1400附近。

  英镑/美元

  上周五英镑震荡上行,冲击1.3300关口,现汇价交投于1.3350附近。除美元指数在美联储降息预期和美元的避险买需降低打压下走软对英镑构成了有力的支撑外,对英国央行的降息预期降温也持续对汇价构成一定的支撑。今日关注1.3450附近的压力情况,下方支撑在1.3250附近。

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