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曙光 军旅,重拾失落的感动与温暖
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  摩根资产管理表示,美国国债的上涨潜力大于欧洲国债,因为交易员低估了美联储相比欧洲央行将会实施的降息幅度。

  该机构的全球综合策略主管MylesBradshaw表示,特朗普的关税措施更可能拖累经济增长而非刺激通胀。他预计,由于美联储已在较长时间内将政策维持不变,最终将需要更为激进地降息。

  “市场对未来几年美国利率的定价在3%以上——高于其中性利率——而这也是我认为存在巨大机遇的领域,”Bradshaw表示。

  部分全球投资者,包括Pimco,开始重新看好美国国债。此前,因担忧特朗普关税政策,引发美债抛售潮,导致收益率飙升。周四,美国国债全线走高,较短期债券收益率一度下跌4个基点。

  Bradshaw表示,欧洲“虽然存在一些上行空间,但幅度远不及美国”。

  目前,货币市场预期欧洲央行今年将再实施三次25个基点的降息,将存款利率降至1.5%。对于美联储,交易员预计至少会降息三次,将利率降至3.75%,第四次降息的可能性也存在。

  近期市场获得喘息空间,因特朗普对关税口吻缓和,并弱化了对美联储主席鲍威尔的敌意。周三长期国债收益率下跌,五年期国债标售获得强劲需求。

  “我们看到短期内坏消息减少、不确定性降低,”他补充道。“根本驱动力将是经济增长和通胀。这将后续的关键决定因素。”

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