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  当地时间4月15日,美国半导体行业人士通过媒体透露,如果美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对半导体和半导体制造设备进口征收新关税,美国半导体设备制造商每年将损失超过10亿美元。

  相关预测来自美国业内人士和国会议员的计算讨论。美国3家最大芯片设备制造商——应用材料公司、泛林集团(LamResearch)和KLA将在1年内分别损失3.5亿美元。美国规模更小的芯片设备厂商比如OntoInnovation,也会被迫额外支出数千万美元。

  美国芯片设备制造商可能遭遇的损失包括由于无法向海外竞争对手出售普通、非先进设备而产生的收入下降,为芯片制造零部件寻找其他替代供应商产生的额外成本,以及为了确保遵守关税措施而新增雇员而出现的关税合规成本。在美国民主党前总统约瑟夫·拜登执政时,由于美国限制对中国出口先进半导体制造设备,美国的芯片设备制造商已经损失了数十亿美元的收入。

  周一,美国政府宣布对半导体和半导体制造设备以及药品进口开启调查。美国商务部将依照1962年《贸易扩展法》第232条款,对相关商品进口是否对美国国家安全和韧性构成威胁展开调查。

  调查也为美国之后对半导体进口征收关税做准备。依照法律要求,美国商务部长将在270天内公布调查结果。周二,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普继续签署行政令,要求对美国进口关键矿产启动232调查。在特朗普第一个总统任期,美国也是根据该法案启动对进口钢铝的调查并随后宣布征收钢铝关税。

  美国宣布对半导体进口展开调查后,《日经亚洲》发文警告,美国对半导体领域征收关税将“颠覆”当前复杂的跨境供应链体系。

  文章指出半导体制造涉及非常复杂的技术网络和工序,这些网络和工序遍布全球。硅材料在日本、韩国、德国等国加工成晶圆;电路成型的前端工艺主要集中于中国台湾地区和韩国;后端封装则在东南亚、中国等劳动力成本较低的地区完成,包括晶圆切割、芯片封装等工序;最终在中国等地的工厂将芯片装配至电路板,交付给客户。

  文章预测,特朗普的新关税将给三星和台积电造成最大冲击。虽然两家企业都在美国投资建厂,但大部分工序依然在亚洲完成,要把所有工序搬到美国非常困难。

  国际半导体产业协会统计显示,2025年到2027年,各企业计划在全球修建108座新半导体制造设施,比上一个三年增加30%。但大部分计划建厂的地点都不是美国,而是欧洲和亚洲国家。

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