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  国际货币基金组织(IMF)一位高级官员周三表示,由于美国关税引发的不确定性加大了经济增长和通胀的下行风险,日本央行可能推迟进一步加息的时间。

  国际货币基金组织亚太部副主任、驻日本使团团长NadaChoueiri表示,围绕美国关税和其他国家反应的巨大不确定性可能会打击商业信心,并使一些公司不愿持续提高工资。

  IMF仍预计通胀将趋近日本央行2%的目标,不过这将发生在2027年,而不是此前预期的2026年,Choueiri说。

  “很多公司现在可能都在观望,不执行他们的投资计划,等待未来情况的明朗。这也推迟了投资决策,”Choueiri在接受采访时表示。

  她说:“我们确实看到,如果我们的参考情景成为现实,日本央行的加息将被及时推迟。在经济增长受到抑制的情况下,宽松政策可能需要持续更长时间。”

  IMF本周在其《世界经济展望》报告中说,预计日本经济2025年将增长0.6%,较1月份预期的下调了0.5个百分点,预计2026年的增长率为0.6%,比1月份预期的下调0.2个百分点。

  Choueiri称:“经济增长和通胀的风险平衡是下行的,”因美国关税上调引发的全球不确定性可能令消费降温,并打击企业在明年薪资谈判中维持大幅加薪的决心。

  尽管日本央行行长植田和男曾暗示,日本央行准备继续加息,但美国总统特朗普的关税令其在加息时间和幅度方面的决定变得复杂。

  “如果国内需求受到重大冲击,威胁到实现可持续2%通胀的机会,那么应对这种风险可能需要提高宽松程度,”Choueiri在被问及日本央行考虑降息(而不是加息)的条件时表示。

  特朗普对日本输美产品征收24%的关税,尽管与他的大多数征税一样,这些关税已暂停至7月初。10%的普遍税率和25%的汽车税仍然存在,预计这将打击日本经济。

  随着生活成本的上升和关税的潜在打击给经济前景蒙上阴影,日本首相石破茂周二宣布了削减汽油价格和提供补贴以抑制电费的计划。一些议员还呼吁政府暂时削减日本的销售税,以减轻家庭的痛苦。

  Choueiri称,IMF反对此类支出或减税措施,因这将令日本在整顿财政方面面临更大挑战。

  “如果经济将受到关税的严重影响,可能需要一些支持。但是这种支持必须有时间限制,而且目标明确。”

  她说,日本必须在中期的某个时候提高销售税税率,以控制其庞大的公共债务。她说:“如果今天减税,那么以后需要付出的努力将会更大,这不会有什么帮助。”

  Choueiri补充说,鉴于经济的强劲,以及经济的可预测性和稳定性,日元“仍然是一种避险货币。”日元兑美元汇率最近有所反弹,

  “当局致力于实行灵活的汇率制度。这对国家很有好处。它有助于吸收冲击,”她说,“我们支持他们对这一机制的承诺,这有助于经济调整。”

  转自:北京商报

  用友网络官宣赴港上市“补血”,旗下支付机构能否借到东风?4月22日晚间,A股上市公司用友网络披露公告称,为深入推进公司全球化2.0战略,加强与境外资本市场对接,进一步提升公司综合竞争力,公司正在筹划发行境外股份(H股)并在香港联交所上市事项。

  作为用友集团旗下支付机构,北京畅捷通支付技术有限公司(以下简称“畅捷支付”)的发展动向亦引发关注。畅捷支付有两名股东,其中北京用友融联科技有限公司持股80.72%,畅捷通信息技术股份有限公司(以下简称“畅捷通”)持股19.28%。畅捷通的大股东同样为用友网络,其早前已在港股上市。

  畅捷支付于2014年获得人民银行颁发的支付业务许可证,获准开展的业务类型为互联网支付、银行卡收单。当前其提供的产品及服务包括聚合扫码、网银支付、代付及企业解决方案等。

  而这张支付牌照对于用友集团来说,发挥的作用不小。“一方面是节省自身支付通道成本,另一方面则是战略价值,畅捷支付承担着为用友网络的客户提供支付解决方案的责任,与用友网络的软件服务、云服务等业务板块紧密协同,才能形成一个完整的企业服务生态链条。”博通咨询首席分析师王蓬博说道。

  集团也对畅捷支付展现出一定的重视。2024年11月,两名股东签订增资协议,约定按原有持股比例向畅捷支付注资1亿元,此举过后,畅捷支付注册资本从2亿元扩张至3亿元。这也使得支付公司进一步向行业新规要求的注册资本最低限额靠拢。

  然而,从业绩来看,畅捷支付并未给母公司带来较好的助力。据畅捷通发布的2024年年报,截至2024年末,其分占畅捷支付的亏损为人民币517.1万元,而2023年这一数字为27.4万元。以畅捷通持股19.28%计算,畅捷支付在2024年亏损达到约2682万元,亏损规模同比扩大近19倍。

  事实上,在2020年,用友网络就将持有控股子公司畅捷支付80.72%的股权转让给关联方北京用友融联科技有限公司,意味着将畅捷支付从A股上市体系中剥离。素喜智研高级研究员苏筱芮分析称,从近两年畅捷支付的财务表现来看,其在第三方支付行业的市场竞争力并不显著,业绩方面也不甚理想,并非行业普遍原因,而是目前其母集团还是以企业SaaS服务为主要发展方向,对旗下支付业务投入力度与其他支付机构母集团相比仍存差距。

  在业内人士看来,母集团海外上市能给畅捷支付提供一些助益。王蓬博表示,从资金层面看,上市将为用友网络筹集到更多的资金,而部分资金可能会投入到支付板块的业务拓展、技术研发和市场推广等方面,有助于畅捷支付提升服务能力和市场竞争力,加速业务增长。目前看,出海与加强同用友网络其他业务板块的深度整合与协同,共同打造更具竞争力的企业服务解决方案应该是未来的发展方向。

  就此问题,北京商报记者同时向畅捷支付方面进行采访,但截至发稿未获回复。

  值得注意的是,对于畅捷支付自身来说,也有不少挑战需要面对。北京商报记者注意到,其牌照有效期至2024年7月,过渡期至2025年7月,如今正处在换证的关键阶段。2024年3月,畅捷支付还因违反账户管理规定,收到人民银行北京市分行的一张5万元罚单。

  “在支付新规落地与集团谋求赴港上市的背景下,畅捷支付需要秉持稳健发展原则,进一步巩固合规工作。不断健全内控机制,为后续可能迎来的更好发展打下坚实根基。”苏筱芮说道。

  北京商报记者岳品瑜董晗萱

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