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  4月16日,市场继续弱势震荡,三大指数单边下行,沪指尾盘倔强翻红,两市成交额1.14万亿元,超4300股下跌。

  海外又出幺蛾子,白宫官网显示对中国商品征收245%的进口关税。避险主线升温,银行再次领涨,农行、建行、上海银行等多股创下历史新高。A股顶流银行ETF(512800)场内价格收涨0.92%,日线稳步向上,录得7连阳!经营稳健+高股息+低估值,成为银行跨越周期的韧性密码。

  

  “避震新秀”300现金流ETF(562080)同步走强,场内收涨0.79%,上市两日喜提连阳。

  科技题材全线下行,午后跨境支付活跃,多股异动涨停。国际支付巨头Stripe宣布与腾讯进一步深化全球合作,在英美等20个国家的StripeTerminal正式接入微信支付。金融科技ETF(159851)随之V型向上。

  此外,腾讯控股支付业务的国际化机遇值得关注。根据港股互联网ETF(513770)基金经理丰晨成观点,2025年一季度腾讯整体收入增速接近10%,金融科技及企业服务营收将稳定增长3%,其在AI变现方面拥有巨大潜力。

  根据年报数据,港股互联网ETF(513770)持仓腾讯控股比例达15.51%,为第一大权重股;腾讯控股、阿里巴巴-W、小米集团-W、美团-W合计权重达57.65%,重仓港股互联网龙头,是港股AI投资利器。

  海外扰动不断,老胡盘中连发两文呼吁投资者保持信心与定力。“稳住股市楼市”也是2025年政府工作报告的重点工作之一。上周,政策组合拳强力引导市场预期,彰显了实现稳住股市目标的决心。对于后续,机构提示关注4月份政治局会议重要政策窗口期。

  

  【ETF全知道热点收评】下面重点聊聊现金流、金融科技两个主题的交易和基本面情况。】

  【沪深300放量翘尾,国家队叒出手?中字头“现金牛”强势助攻,300现金流ETF又跑赢!】

  大市震荡之际,沪深300翘尾收涨0.31%!集合尾盘明显放量来看,“国家队”叒出手了。分析指出,在外部环境扰动的背景下,“中国版平准基金”的入市能起到稳定指数、提振信心的积极作用。

  

  300现金流指数同样受益,并继续跑赢沪深300。国内首批跟踪300现金流指数的300现金流ETF(562080)全天强于大市,尾盘奋力向上,场内收涨0.79%,全天成交超5808万元。当日沪指涨0.26%,创指跌1.21%。

  公开资料显示,300现金流指数全称为沪深300自由现金流指数,在剔除金融和地产后的沪深300样本中,选取现金流创造能力最强的50家“现金奶牛”公司作为成份股。截至当前,300现金流ETF(562080)是沪市首只上市的自由现金流策略ETF,也是全市场首只上市的300现金流ETF。

  从成份股表现来看,金价持续走高带动下,山金国际大涨6.15%强势领涨,京沪高铁涨4.45%,其余涨幅靠前的多为中字头“现金牛”公司,万亿市值中国石油涨2.97%,中国中免、中国神华、中国移动等集体涨超2%。

  

  中泰证券分析称,央国企龙头和稳定现金流的高分红资产,在外部扰动频发的背景下,更可能获得资金青睐。招商证券也表示,在经济环境承压时,价值策略呈现“质量→自由现金流→分红”的递进关系,相比红利策略,自由现金流策略具有长期收益更高、增长弹性更强的优势。

  历史收益数据显示,截至4月16日收盘,300现金流全收益指数基日以来累计涨幅超331%,年化收益14.25%,较同期沪深300全收益指数超额明显,并跑赢沪深300红利策略全收益指数。

  

  300现金流指数基日为2013.12.31,发布日期为2024.11.12,全收益指数2020-2024年分年度历史收益率分别为:16.20%、13.83%、-4.31%、12.94%、40.79%。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整,指数回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。

  当前,全球经济不确定性上升,国内经济转向高质量发展,利率长期趋势下行等多重背景交织,“现金为王”时代或已到来,“现金奶牛”公司得益于较高的经营质量和股息率,拥有更强的穿越周期的能力和股东回报潜力,配置价值突出。

  【跨境支付概念异军突起,创识科技20CM涨停,翠微股份直线封板!金融科技午后V型向上】

  今日题材股表现相对较弱,金融科技板块震荡整理。中证金融科技主题指数午后“V型”向上,收盘跌幅收窄至0.77%,成份股局部走强。跨境支付概念午后异军突起,创识科技20CM涨停,翠微股份直线封板,南天信息、新国都涨超5%。

  热门ETF方面,金融科技ETF(159851)早盘单边下挫近3%,午后受跨境支付概念异动影响,场内跌幅缩窄,收盘微跌0.82%。

  

  消息面上,全球支付服务与金融基础设施提供商Stripe今天宣布,与腾讯进步深化全球合作,在20个国家的StripeTerminal正式接入微信支付。

  华鑫证券指出,关税政策增加了贸易的不确定性和成本,企业需要更高效、稳定的支付系统来应对复杂的贸易环境。CIPS系统功能不断丰富,业务量稳步增长,网络覆盖的广度和深度持续提升,能够为跨境贸易、投融资、金融市场交易等各类型业务提供安全、高效、便捷的人民币跨境支付服务,建议关注跨境支付相关机会。

  西部证券表示,政策上我国以“以攻为守”逻辑推进科技自主、基建投资、消费升级,并通过数字人民币跨境结算系统连接东盟及中东或将重构全球化规则,受益方向包括跨境支付金融科技、数字货币基建(量子通信、北斗导航)及区域贸易链(中韩自贸区、东盟转口贸易)等,建议中长期聚焦科技自主及新质生产力主线。

  把握金融科技自主可控机会,重点关注金融科技ETF(159851)及其联接基金(A类013477、C类013478)。资料显示,金融科技ETF(159851)被动跟踪中证金融科技主题指数,全面覆盖了跨境支付、AI应用、互联网券商、华为鸿蒙、金融IT、信创等热门主题。

  特别提醒:近期市场波动可能较大,短期涨跌幅不预示未来表现。请投资者务必根据自身的资金状况和风险承受能力理性投资,高度注意仓位和风险管理。

  
数据、图片来源:沪深交易所等。

  风险提示:银行ETF被动跟踪中证银行指数,该指数基日为2004.12.31,发布于2013.7.15;300现金流ETF被动跟踪沪深300自由现金流指数,该指数基日为2013.12.31,发布于2024.11.12;金融科技ETF被动跟踪中证金融科技主题指数,该指数基日为2014.6.30,发布于2017.6.22;港股互联网ETF被动跟踪中证港股通互联网指数,该指数基日为2016.12.30,发布于2021.1.11。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整,其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。文中提及个股仅为指数成份股客观展示列举,不作为任何个股推荐,不代表基金管理人和基金投资方向。任何在本文出现的信息(包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等)均只作为参考,投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另,本文中的任何观点、分析及预测不构成对阅读者任何形式的投资建议,本公司亦不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责任。投资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》、《招募说明书》、《基金产品资料概要》等基金法律文件,了解基金的风险收益特征,选择与自身风险承受能力相适应的产品。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现,基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证。根据基金管理人的评估,银行ETF(512800)、300现金流ETF(562080)、金融科技ETF(159851)风险等级为R3-中风险,适宜平衡型(C3)及以上的投资者,港股互联网ETF(513770)风险等级为R4-中高风险,适宜积极型(C4)及以上的投资者,适当性匹配意见请以销售机构为准。销售机构(包括基金管理人直销机构和其他销售机构)根据相关法律法规对以上基金进行风险评价,投资者应及时关注基金管理人出具的适当性意见,各销售机构关于适当性的意见不必然一致,且基金销售机构所出具的基金产品风险等级评价结果不得低于基金管理人作出的风险等级评价结果。基金合同中关于基金风险收益特征与基金风险等级因考虑因素不同而存在差异。投资者应了解基金的风险收益情况,结合自身投资目的、期限、投资经验及风险承受能力谨慎选择基金产品并自行承担风险。中国证监会对以上基金的注册,并不表明其对该基金的投资价值、市场前景和收益做出实质性判断或保证。基金投资须谨慎。

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