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  一季度44家公募机构管理规模增长头部效应显著

  本报记者 彭衍菘

  公募排排网最新数据显示,截至今年一季度末,162家持牌公募机构合计管理规模31.27万亿元,较2024年四季度末基本持平。其中,共有44家持牌公募机构管理规模实现正增长。

  从单家公募机构管理规模来看,剔除货币基金规模后,161家持牌公募机构中,非货基金管理规模超万亿元、千亿元、百亿元、十亿元的公募机构分别有2家、43家、74家、28家,非货基金管理规模不足10亿元的公募机构有15家。

  头部机构占据半壁江山

  一季度,非货管理规模前十名公募机构合计管理规模达7.35万亿元,占公募基金总规模的40.76%,“头部效应”显著。

  具体来看,易方达基金管理有限公司非货管理规模达1.31万亿元,占公募基金非货总规模的7.27%,居于首位;其次是华夏基金管理有限公司,非货管理规模达1.09万亿元,占非货总规模的6.07%。另外广发基金管理有限公司、富国基金管理有限公司(以下简称“富国基金”)、嘉实基金管理有限公司、南方基金管理股份有限公司、博时基金管理有限公司、华泰柏瑞基金管理有限公司和招商基金管理有限公司,非货管理规模均不低于0.5万亿元。

  “当前,公募行业呈现出显著的头部集聚效应,这一现象反映出行业竞争日趋白热化。”深圳市前海排排网基金销售有限责任公司公募产品运营曾方芳对《证券日报》记者表示,从行业发展规律来看,头部效应的形成既是市场优胜劣汰机制作用的结果,也是行业走向成熟的重要标志。

  公募排排网数据显示,50家非货管理规模实现增长的公募机构中,增加金额不低于100亿元的有4家。其中,一季度,中欧基金管理有限公司非货管理规模增长380.48亿元,环比增幅达12.25%;富国基金非货管理规模增长225.53亿元,环比增幅为3.44%。另外,汇添富基金管理股份有限公司和景顺长城基金管理有限公司非货管理规模增长均超100亿元。

  曾方芳认为,一方面,头部机构凭借其卓越的投研实力、强大的品牌竞争力以及突出的资本集聚优势,持续获得市场青睐;另一方面,这些机构在产品创新和技术升级方面的大规模投入,进一步巩固其市场竞争壁垒,客观上加剧了中小机构的经营压力,促使行业资源加速向头部集中。

  多家中小机构规模激增

  今年一季度,公募基金行业呈现稳健发展态势。公募排排网最新统计数据显示,截至今年一季度末,共有44家持牌公募机构实现管理规模正增长。其中,4家公募机构相较去年末规模增幅超100%。

  具体来看,一季度,安联基金管理有限公司以管理规模环比增幅391.38%居首;其次是施罗德基金管理(中国)有限公司,管理规模环比增幅315.00%;另外苏新基金管理有限公司(以下简称“苏新基金”)和易米基金管理有限公司管理规模环比增幅均超100%。上述公募机构管理规模均不足200亿元。

  前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙在接受《证券日报》记者采访时认为,一季度结构性行情下科技板块的快速增长,为中小公募机构提供了差异化发展机遇。以机器人、AI为代表的科技赛道形成显著赚钱效应,推动部分中小机构规模快速扩张,这种结构性机会的捕捉,本质上是中小机构通过特色化产品设计和灵活投资策略实现阶段性突破。

  杨德龙表示,当前公募行业已进入“存量博弈+增量突破”的新阶段,中小公募机构只有将特色化发展、专业化投资、精细化服务有机结合,才能在集中度持续提升的市场中实现高质量发展。

  华林证券资管部董事总经理贾志进一步表示,公募机构需平衡规模扩张与投资者回报,将长期业绩、合规风控纳入核心考核指标。在产品设计上,可创新开发养老FOF、量化对冲等中低波动产品,既适配中长期资金需求,也能通过稳定回报增强投资者黏性。

MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错!

  来源:中金点睛

  特朗普政府试图通过加征关税促使美国贸易逆差收窄,制造业回流,我们认为这两个目标难以通过关税实现。首先,关税难以使得美国贸易逆差收窄。从理论来看,提升关税并不一定能够缩减逆差(扩大顺差)。根据勒纳对称定理,对进口征税等同于对本国的出口征税。关税难以促使制造业回流美国。全球供应链对中国的依赖度比较高,而且无论是从劳动者数量、质量,还是就业意愿来看,美国制造业回流都将面临着劳动力短缺的问题。美国制造业成本高,也是其制造业回流的挑战。特朗普关税或对美国产生滞胀式影响,美国衰退风险加大。除了“滞胀”风险,特朗普的减税、削减支出和关税组合或将损害美国大多数家庭,对低收入人群损害更大,加剧美国内部不平衡。实际上,从经济视角来看,美国没有非常突出的外部失衡问题,但内部分配问题很严重。

  图表:美国豁免“对等关税”的电子产品对中国依赖度较高

  资料来源:USCensusBureau,中金公司研究部

  2025.04.23|张文朗黄亚东等

  02

  宏观Macroeconomy

  从汇率、利率到风险溢价

  资料来源:Wind,中金公司研究部

  2025.04.21|周彭张文朗

  03

  中金研究CICCResearch

  关税冲击影响的全球视角

  资料来源:各公司公告,中金公司研究部

  2025.04.19|杨鑫陈健恒等

  04

  宏观Macroeconomy

  高关税或触发“衰退式”降息

  资料来源:Haver,中金公司研究部

  2025.04.21|肖捷文林雨昕等

  05

  策略Strategy

  哪些企业有望受益于“扩内需”?

  本次美国关税冲击之下,A股市场显现较强韧性,经历对等关税宣布后一个交易日的短暂调整后,近两周延续修复态势。主要原因为以下几个方面:宏观政策上,本次我国政策针对特朗普的关税政策应对更为从容,与美国面临的“滞胀”环境不同,我国所处的低通胀环境使得政策发力方向更为明确,市场对政策发力也有一定预期。资本市场方面,维稳资金及时注入流动性,上市公司集中发布增持与回购公告,维护市场信心;另外美国超预期的关税加征幅度,反而加快市场消化关税事件的速度。向前看,随着前期回调缺口逐渐修复,我们认为市场可能进入政策观察期,可能受益内需增长和政策预期的相关板块或仍有相对表现。

  2025.04.20|李求索魏冬等

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