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  财联社4月23日讯(编辑潇湘)越来越多证据表明,随着美国总统特朗普发起的关税战持续升级,有关外资加速抛售美国国债的担忧在4月确实可能已演变为现实。

  最新的信号来自纽约梅隆银行提供的跨境资金流动数据(iFlow),该银行为全球客户管理着约53万亿美元的资产,并提供有关资产配置趋势的见解。

  纽约梅隆银行美洲宏观策略师JohnVelis在周二发布的客户报告中指出,“美国国债的避险属性正遭受日益严峻的质疑,我们的数据清晰印证了这一趋势转变。”

  Velis通过图表展示了跨境美国国债资金流动的情况:截至4月11日当周,外资抛售规模“接近偏离正常值一个完整标准差”,创下近年来最剧烈的单周抛售纪录。

  纽约梅隆银行的数据显示,自4月4日以来的11个交易日中,有8个交易日出现了外国卖盘。

  华尔街始终担忧,随着特朗普运用关税工具重塑全球贸易格局,美债对海外投资者的吸引力可能持续衰减。

  白宫宣称加征关税旨在引导制造业回流,但美国财政赤字高度依赖主要贸易伙伴的融资支持。若外资持续撤离美债,或将推高债券收益率,导致美国政府融资成本攀升,更将波及美国中产阶级——住房抵押贷款和汽车贷款等长期利率均与美债收益率挂钩。

  据业内最新估计,目前外国投资者持有的美债比例约为30%,已明显低于了2008年时接近50%的水平。

  日本财务省周二公布的初步数据也显示,截至4月4日的一周内,日本私人机构(包括银行和养老基金)抛售了价值175亿美元的长期外国债券,接下来的七天内又出售了36亿美元。这也是自2005年有记录以来,两周内最大规模的抛售之一。

  本月的美债抛售潮,始于4月2日特朗普意外推出超预期规模的对等关税。一周后,债市剧烈震荡迫使特朗普宣布对部分国家的高额关税暂缓90天执行,为与其他国家领导人达成贸易协议争取时间。

  纽约梅隆银行追踪的数据显示,4月11日当外资加速撤离美债时,10年期美债收益率曾一度逼近4.5%。尽管市场对中美达成贸易协议的预期推动美债价格周二有所反弹,但10年期美债收益率全天也仅回落了不到2个基点至4.393%。

  值得一提的是,周二最新进行的2年期美债标售,也显示出海外投资者需求低迷。当天美国财政部标售了690亿美元的两年期国债,这是本周美国财政部1830亿美元总国债发行量的一部分。

  最终,两年期美债标售的得标利率高达3.795%,比预发行利率3.789%高出0.6个基点,这是自去年10月以来最大的尾部利差。表明投资者要求获得更高的补偿以消化此次售债。其中尤其值得注意的是,通常代表外国央行等机构的间接竞标者此次获配所占比例仅为56.2%,这是自2023年3月硅谷银行危机最严重时期以来的最低值。

  知名财经博客网站ZeroHedge表示,虽然间接竞标者需求在两周前很强劲,但这一次却崩溃了,如果比例再下降10-20%,美联储可能别无选择,只能重启量化宽松政策,以提供其明确应该做的事情:成为美国国债的“最后买家”。

  LPLFinancial首席固定收益策略师LawrenceGillum表示:“毫无疑问,外国投资者抛售美元资产的现象已经发生,并加剧了市场波动。再加上对美联储独立性的担忧,以及过早降息可能造成的非受迫性政策失误,长期国债收益率持续走高也就不足为奇了。”

  “我们看到欧洲投资者正在将部分投资汇回,”NorthlightAssetManagement首席投资官ChrisZaccarelli表示,“我们预计,只要关税政策和其他反全球化政策得到认真讨论,这种趋势就会持续下去。”

财联社4月23日讯(编辑卞纯)对特斯拉股东来说,今年迄今的日子非常难熬,而对那些押注特斯拉股价下跌的卖空者来说,他们在同期却赚得盆满钵满。

根据金融数据提供商S3Partners的数据,2025年至今,做空特斯拉已经产生了115亿美元的按市值计算的利润。该数据是基于特斯拉周一收盘价227.5美元来计算的。

周二,随着大盘走高,特斯拉股价上涨4.6%。当天早些时候,美国财长贝森特表示“贸易冲突的现状不可持续”,引发大盘强劲反弹。

盘后因CEO马斯克称未来将把大量精力和时间放在公司经营上,特斯拉股价又大涨逾5%。

今年第一季度,特斯拉股价暴跌36%,创下自2022年以来的最差的季度表现,并在4月份继续下跌。年初迄今,该股已累计下跌约四成。

多重利空压顶

特斯拉股价下跌的主要原因是人们担心美国总统特朗普对主要贸易伙伴征收的全面关税将增加对电动汽车生产至关重要的零部件和材料的成本,包括制造设备、汽车玻璃、印刷电路板和电池。

此外,特斯拉CEO马斯克在特朗普政府中所扮演的角色以及干预政治也引发不满,对特斯拉的销量造成冲击。

马斯克正在带领政府效率部(DOGE)对美国联邦政府进行大刀阔斧的改革,不仅大砍联邦资金还大规模裁减联邦雇员。他近期还发表了针对多个国家,尤其是欧洲国家的涉政言论,并支持欧洲极右翼政党。在此背景下,美国以及欧洲掀起了“抵制特斯拉”运动。

今年第一季度,特斯拉全球交付量下降了13%,远不及华尔街预期。

此外,特斯拉还面临来自中国汽车制造商激烈的竞争,并且在无人驾驶出租车市场上落后,目前美国的无人驾驶出租车市场由Alphabet的Waymo主导。特斯拉承诺将于6月在德克萨斯州奥斯汀推出其首个无人驾驶叫车服务。

周二美股盘后,特斯拉公布了第一季度财报。由于汽车交付量的骤减,公司营收、利润等核心财务指标全部大幅低于预期。

英伟达位居做空榜榜首

特斯拉是今年美股科技巨头中跌幅最大的股票,其次是英伟达,该股年内下跌约28%。根据S3的数据,英伟达是卖空者的第二大利润来源,创造了94亿美元的回报。

S3称,按照做空市值来算,英伟达目前位列做空榜榜首,有246亿美元的股票被做空。苹果位居第二,有222亿美元的股票被做空,特斯拉排在第三,有176亿美元的股票被做空。

值得注意的是,在特斯拉上市以来的15年里,卖空者曾在很长一段时间里损失惨重。

马斯克一向对做空者的行为嗤之以鼻,称这是非法的。特斯拉还曾在特斯拉股价大幅上涨时期售卖过一款红色的做空短裤(ShortShorts),以嘲讽买空者。

“Short”在财经英语中有做空、空头的意思。而短裤的红色可能象征着做空者面临的“危险”或“损失”。

  4月18日深夜,重药控股连收重庆证监局行政监管措施与深交所监管函,直指其2023年年报存在四类财务确认违规:未实质取得货权却确认收入、无商业实质交易入账、期后大额异常退货、收入确认时点与会计政策不符。值得关注的是,此次暴雷恰逢公司实控权由重庆国资委转至国务院国资委不足百日,业内猜测这或是新任控股方主动“挤水分”的结果。

  千亿联合体的“阿喀琉斯之踵”

  2023年初,通用技术集团入主重药控股,将其与中国医药合并打造出年营收超千亿的流通巨头。但规模神话难掩经营隐忧:2022-2024年净利润三连降,2024年预告净利腰斩,应收账款周转天数高达150天,远超同行均值。数据显示,其2023年801亿元营收仅转化6.55亿元净利,净利率不足0.8%,而同期国药控股净利率为2.3%。

  重药控股73%网点分布在川渝云贵地区,这些区域公立医院平均回款周期长达9-12个月,叠加集采压价与账期延长,形成“规模越大、资金链越紧”的恶性循环。更严峻的是,其与中国医药的协同效应未能显现——两家企业应收账款周转天数均在150天高位徘徊,合并后资金效率不升反降。

  市值管理考核下的业绩迷途

  此次财务造假风波,恰逢国资委将市值管理纳入央企考核的关键节点。2023年报显示,重药控股管理层股权激励行权条件要求净利润年复合增长率不低于10%,而实际业绩已连续三年负增长。

  这种现象并非孤例。2023年白云山第四季度突然计提3亿元亏损,被指是为新任管理层卸下历史包袱;九州通2022年也曾因提前确认收入被问询。这些案例折射出流通企业在规模扩张与质量提升间的集体迷失——商务部数据显示,TOP5企业已占据医药流通市场52%份额,但行业平均净利率从2018年的1.8%下滑至2023年的1.2%。

  此刻摆在重药控股面前的,不仅是财务洗澡的阵痛,更是如何将千亿规模转化为真实价值的终极命题。当潮水退去,唯有真正穿上“效率救生衣”的企业,才能穿越行业周期。

  本文结合AI工具生成

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