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  汇通财经APP讯——此前市场对美国和亚洲大国可能达成初步关税协议寄予厚望,导致黄金连续两日回落。然而,最新发言显示白宫并未打算单方面削减关税,美国财政部长ScottBessent表态称,高关税必须是“对等下调”,并否认了任何即将出台的减税措施。“投资者对快速解决贸易分歧的预期已经降温,这种不确定性反而增强了市场对黄金的避险需求。”——荷兰国际集团(ING)贵金属策略师

  与此同时,白宫发言人也指出,美方正为谈判做准备,但不会对亚洲国家做出单边让步。这一表态令前期风险情绪升温的行情遭到修正,推动部分避险资金重新回流至黄金市场。

  美联储宽松预期升温,美元回落提振金价

  美联储发布的《褐皮书》显示,美国企业对前景持谨慎态度,多数地区就业增速放缓,服务业需求显露疲态。加之制造业扩张速度趋缓,反映经济整体存在下行风险。

  当前市场普遍预期美联储将在6月降息25个基点,并在年内至少实施三次降息。根据CMEFedWatch工具,联储年内降息概率已超过80%。

  风险情绪抑制金价快速上涨,短线波动受限

  尽管基本面利多因素渐增,但全球风险资产延续上行,投资者风险偏好总体依旧积极。美联储独立性担忧暂缓,加上亚洲国家经济数据短期企稳,均压制黄金进一步上攻的动能。

  机构普遍认为,金价短期将维持高位震荡,等待更明确的美联储政策指引和贸易局势实质进展。

  从技术角度看,黄金在本周回调至38.2%斐波那契回撤位附近后获得支撑,短线已重回3300美元上方。上方阻力集中在3367-3368美元区域,一旦突破将打开通向3400关口的空间,进一步可能挑战3425-3427美元以及心理关口3500美元。

  下方支撑位首先在3300美元,其次为3280美元,若失守则将考验3260美元附近。若跌破3200美元,意味着短期顶部或已形成,调整趋势将延续。

  编辑观点:

  当前黄金价格处于多空博弈胶着阶段,一方面美联储宽松政策路径已基本明确,美元面临回调压力;另一方面,全球风险情绪稳定及股市强势表现削弱黄金作为避险工具的吸引力。

  全球贸易谈判信号反复也使得市场方向不明。关注本周美国初请失业金、耐用品订单、以及下周PCE通胀数据,以判断金价是否能突破3400并重新挑战历史高位。

  4月24日,前期火热的跨境支付概念单边走弱,金融科技回调下跌3%,多只成份股下跌超5%。其中,拉卡拉跌超10%,信雅达跌停,新国都、中亦科技、艾融软件、安硕信息、南天信息、翠微股份、京北方等多股跌超5%,飞天诚信、新晨科技等两股逆市上扬超5%。

  热门ETF方面,金融科技ETF(159851)震荡调整,场内下跌3%,实时成交额达2.5亿元,盘中频现溢价交易。数据显示,资金实时净申购2300万份。

  从加仓逻辑上看,政策支持+关税的不确定性双重提振下,跨境支付有望迎增长机会。消息面上,央行等四部门联合印发《上海国际金融中心进一步提升跨境金融服务便利化行动方案》。其中指出,提升人民币跨境支付系统(CIPS)功能和全球网络覆盖。

  华鑫证券指出,关税政策增加了贸易的不确定性和成本,企业需要更高效、稳定的支付系统来应对复杂的贸易环境。CIPS系统功能不断丰富,业务量稳步增长,网络覆盖的广度和深度持续提升,能够为跨境贸易、投融资、金融市场交易等各类型业务提供安全、高效、便捷的人民币跨境支付服务,建议关注跨境支付相关机会。

  浙商证券也表示,关税博弈与金融安全战的交织,有望重塑全球贸易与支付格局,建议关注人民币国际化进程加速及跨境支付产业链。尽管短期仍面临SWIFT网络效应、人民币接受度等挑战,但技术革新与多边合作的双轮驱动,已为“后美元时代”埋下伏笔。中国有望通过“非美区域”贸易倾斜、人民币国际化三驾马车协同、数字人民币跨境生态构建,以系统化策略突围美元霸权。

  海通国际证券认为,CIPS的新兴跨境支付手段基于区块链技术快速发展,在便捷性和安全性上展现出显著优势,各国银行为了适应这些新兴支付和清算系统,对IT系统升级需求将不断释放,为我国银行IT公司带来了宽广的市场机遇。数字货币桥、金砖支付的发展和落地有望加速,进一步推动银行IT系统建设需求从国内向全球演绎。

  把握跨境支付风口机会,重点关注金融科技ETF(159851)及其联接基金(A类013477、C类013478)。资料显示,金融科技ETF(159851)被动跟踪中证金融科技主题指数,全面覆盖了跨境支付、AI应用、互联网券商、华为鸿蒙、金融IT、信创等热门主题。

  数据来源:沪深交易所等。

  风险提示:金融科技ETF被动跟踪中证金融科技主题指数,该指数基日为2014.6.30,发布日期为2017.6.22,指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整,其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。文中指数成份股仅作展示,个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议,也不代表管理人旗下任何基金的持仓信息和交易动向。基金管理人评估的该基金风险等级为R3-中风险,适宜平衡型(C3)及以上投资者。任何在本文出现的信息(包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等)均只作为参考,投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另,本文中的任何观点、分析及预测不构成对阅读者任何形式的投资建议,亦不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责任。基金投资有风险,基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现,基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证,基金投资须谨慎。

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