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  近日,记者走访并致电全国多地银行了解到,随着银行近期密集下调中长期存款利率,利率长短“倒挂”现象在全国性中大型银行频现。

  通常情况下,银行定期存款期限越长,利率越高。然而,当前这一传统认知被打破,银行业出现中短期存款利率高于长期存款利率的偏离常态现象。

  在业内人士看来,出现存款利率长短期“倒挂”现象的原因主要在于利率下行预期强烈、短期流动性压力加大、银行负债端压力加剧、银行主动优化调整负债结构等。

  利率“倒挂”频现

  “目前我行3年期定期存款利率最高是1.65%,2年期最高利率是1.7%,比3年期的利率还高5个基点。”在平安银行北京丰台区一家网点内记者了解到,该行于近期下调了3年期存款利率,较此前2.05%的利率,下调幅度高达40个基点,利率长短期“倒挂”现象也随之产生。

  平安银行并非个例。4月15日,记者查询部分银行手机银行APP发现,当前工商银行、建设银行、招商银行等多家大中型银行也存在存款利率长短期“倒挂”现象。

  例如,建设银行手机银行APP显示,3年期定期存款最高年利率为1.90%,比5年期定期存款利率高出35个基点。

图片来源:建设银行手机银行

  工商银行50元起存,3年期定期存款年利率1.90%,5年期利率仅为1.55%。

图片来源:工商银行手机银行

  招商银行手机银行APP显示,一、二年期“灵动存”最高年利率分别1.60%、1.70%,起存金额为1000元;而3年期、5年期“灵动存”最高年利率分别为1.50%、1.55%,起存金额为50元,均低于一、二年期“灵动存”最高年利率。

  多地中小银行也出现存款利率长短“倒挂”现象。例如,汝阳兴福村镇银行3年期定期存款利率为1.95%,比5年期定期存款利率高出25个基点;山东平邑汉源村镇银行50万元起存的3年期定期存款利率为2.55%,比5年期定期存款利率高出15个基点。

  利率预期下行

  记者发现,2024年,吉林、贵州、河南等地部分村镇银行就出现存款利率“倒挂”现象。

  根据融360数字科技研究院2024年8月的统计数据,股份制银行、城市商业银行、农村商业银行的3年期和5年期存款平均利率均出现不同程度“倒挂”。其中,城商行存款利率“倒挂”幅度最大,3年期存款平均利率较5年期存款平均利率高出近12个基点。

  在业内人士看来,出现存款利率长短期“倒挂”现象的原因主要在于银行负债端压力加剧、银行主动调整负债结构、预期未来利率将继续下行等。

  银行预期未来利率将继续下行,为降低长期负债成本,银行主动压低长期存款利率。“短期利率更多反映当前利率水平,中长期利率则更多计入了对未来利率变动的预期。存款利率出现期限‘倒挂’,表明银行预期未来利率会进一步下降。个别银行通过提前调降中长期存款利率来控制未来负债成本,就容易出现期限‘倒挂’现象。”苏商银行特邀研究员薛洪言说。

  中国银行研究院银行业与综合经营团队主管邵科也表达了类似看法:“央行持续强化逆周期调节,坚持适度宽松的货币政策立场,未来将适时降准降息。银行预判存款利率将保持继续下行趋势,主动调整中长期存款的利率水平,适度减少对中长期存款的吸纳,从而根据利率预期控制负债成本,稳定净息差水平。”

  面对净息差收窄压力,多家银行表示将从负债和资产两端发力,力求将净息差保持在合理水平。

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