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丁长生玩田清茹第二次 - 你的才华,自己的舞台
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北京时间4月16日凌晨,AI芯片巨头英伟达向美国证券交易委员会(SEC)提交8-k文件称,已经接到美国特朗普政府通知,将“未来无限期”对中国和以色列等D:5国家,禁止出口英伟达H20芯片,除非有许可证。“美国政府表示,许可要求是为了应对相关产品可能被用于或转用于中国超级计算机的风险。”

英伟达透露,截至2025年4月27日的第一季度内,公司减记约55亿美元(约合人民币400亿元)费用,这笔费用与出口到中国等地的H20GPU芯片相关。同时,与H20产品相关的库存、采购承诺和相关储备费用高达数十亿美元。

这意味着,美国全面封杀英伟达H20芯片对华出口。作为英伟达面向中国市场、唯一符合美国规定的特供芯片,H20也遭禁售。此外,英伟达今后无法再向中国销售任何高性能GPU产品。这一系列调整,预计将冲击英伟达超100亿美元的营收,也重创先前推出“降规版”技术带来的影响。

受消息拖累,英伟达(NASDAQ:NVDA)股价盘后重挫6%,至105.36美元/股;同时也导致超微半导体公司(AMD)盘后股价也下跌7.07%,台积电ADR盘后下跌1.96%。

英伟达H20芯片被禁,今年或将损失180亿美元收入

实际上,自2022年拜登政府实施半导体出口管制以来,英伟达为满足中国市场需求,专门设计符合出口管制的H20芯片。这是英伟达为中国市场开发的3款GPU中功能最强大的一款,虽然在计算能力、互联速度和带宽上低于其旗舰AI芯片H100和H800,但其采用Hopper架构,在推理计算领域仍具备显著优势。

2024年2月,英伟达开始接受分销商对华专供新款AI芯片H20GPU的预订,每张定价在1.2万-1.5万美元区间(约8.6万-11万元),略低于昇腾约12万元售价。据悉,经销商提供的H20服务器预配置了8颗AI芯片,售价140万元。相比之下,配置8颗H800芯片的服务器在两年前推出时售价为200万元。

2025年初,特朗普政府酝酿进一步收紧限制,计划将H20纳入出口管制清单,此举直接对英伟达业绩产生影响。美国议员于2月联名敦促美国商务部采取行动,此时中国科技企业可能已预判政策风险,仅第一季度就突击采购价值160亿美元的H20芯片库存。

针对英伟达的最新规定表明,特朗普将坚持美国政府对中国AI半导体进行制裁的方针。

英伟达曾辩称,进一步收紧AI限制只会增强中国摆脱对美国技术依赖的决心,而这种打压会削弱美国企业。

英伟达创始人兼首席执行官黄仁勋今年2月表示,公司努力遵守法律,但他也指出,世界上大约一半的人工智能研究人员来自中国,其中许多人在美国的人工智能实验室工作。

黄仁勋警告称,来自中国的营收已降至出口管制前水平的一半,但中国的竞争形势正在加剧,而且英伟达连续第二年在年度报告中将华为列为竞争对手。

根据英伟达的年度报告,中国是英伟达的第四大销售额地区,仅次于美国、新加坡等。在截至1月的2024自然年中,英伟达中国区营收171.08亿美元,为史上最高,比前一年103.06亿美元增长66%。目前,英伟达2025财年中,53%的收入占比来自美国以外的地区。

彭博行业研究分析师在一份报告中表示,英伟达的减记意味着该公司今年可能损失140亿至180亿美元的收入。彭博表示:“如果限制措施持续下去,英伟达在中国的数据中心业务敞口可能会恢复正常,降至低至中等个位数,与2024年初H20产量提升之前的水平相似。”

英伟达表示,该公司在4月9日首次获悉特朗普的打算。在宣布受到新贸易限制措施的前一天,英伟达表示计划在未来四年内在美国生产高达5000亿美元的AI基础设施。

黄仁勋表示,“全球AI基础设施的引擎首次在美国建造。引入美国制造有助于我们更好地满足市场对AI芯片和超级计算机惊人且不断增长的需求,增强我们的供应链,并提升我们的韧性。”

有业内人士分析认为,美国政府既欲维持半导体产业领导地位,又担忧技术外溢削弱安全优势。英伟达等企业的自适应策略——通过架构调整游走政策边缘——虽短期奏效,但终将面临"创新受限"与"市场丢失"的双重困境。而对于中国,此次事件再次凸显建立自主可控算力体系的战略紧迫性,国产算力芯片的商用加速及存储厂商的HBM突破,或将成为破局关键。

展望2025自然年第一季度,英伟达预计收入430亿美元,上下浮动2%;非GAAP毛利率71.0%,上下浮动50个基点,有望再度迎来史上最高单季收入。

美国政府再将关税增至245%

与此同时,特朗普政府在4月15日白宫文件中宣布,对等关税措施公布后,目前已有超过75个国家商讨新的贸易协议,个别提高关税目前已暂停,但中国除外。由于“中国采取报复措施”,目前面临对美国进口产品征收高达245%的关税。

这场关税已经引发对芯片、手机等消费电子产业链影响。

根据日本新闻调查,999美元的iPhone16Pro硬件成本大约568美元,其中成本最高的依次是台积电代工的A18Pro芯片(135美元)和三星电子提供的OLED屏幕(110美元)。一旦关税实施,iPhone必然会涨价,至少超过200美元。

与此同时,“中国电子第一街”深圳华强北目前多家档口对CPU、GPU等热门芯片的报价已经暂停,且多家档口关门歇业,持货待涨。“现在都在观望,封库存了,大家担心价格会暴涨暴跌。”

“我们还是不能低估‘关税战’对中国半导体行业的影响。”赛迪顾问副总裁李珂4月11日表示,关税措施将导致2025年中国半导体产业增速“腰斩”,增长或低于10%。短期看是冲击,但长期利好国产化发展,因此企业需“趋利避害化危为机”。

针对美国高关税措施,国家集成电路封测产业链技术创新战略联盟副理事长、中国半导体行业协会集成电路分会常务副理事长于燮康表示,2016年开始,美国逐步加速对中国半导体产业技术方面出口限制,从特朗普政府的全面打压,到前一任拜登政府的精准遏制,再到特朗普重新执政,开始进一步加大对中国半导体产业全方位打压。短期内,美国制裁势必对中国半导体产业技术壁垒和研发方面造成重大压力,使得中国先进制程与国际领先水平的差距进一步拉大。

“美国脱钩断链和制裁肯定是个坏事,但另一方面,这一措施将加速中国半导体企业自主创新与产业链的重构,加速国产化步伐,尤其以创新应用为驱动的中国半导体产业,一定能够冲破各种阻力,取得快速发展。我意识到,假如说10年以前美国对中国芯片(我们)制裁,真的有可能被打趴下,但如今,中国半导体产业生态已经齐全,美国的制裁会使得中国半导体产业快速发展。”于燮康称。

全球最大对冲基金、桥水基金创始人雷·达利欧(RayDalio)表示,他担心美国会因关税而陷入衰退,甚至更糟的情况。

“目前我们正处于决策时刻,经济衰退已经非常接近。如果处理不好,我担心会出现比经济衰退更糟糕的情况。”达利欧称。

年初至今,英伟达股价已累计下跌16%。

(本文首发于钛媒体App,作者|林志佳)

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