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奶茶与花臂:揭开伦理片背后的故事与魅力
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奶茶与花臂:揭开伦理片背后的故事与魅力

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  世贸组织举行成立30周年纪念活动——

  各方呼吁坚定维护多边贸易体制(环球热点)

  在世界贸易组织成立30周年纪念活动上,多位与会代表指出,当前全球贸易正面临单边关税壁垒和不确定性加剧的挑战,呼吁国际社会坚定维护以世界贸易组织为核心、以规则为基础的多边贸易体制。美国频繁滥用关税手段,引发国际社会强烈不满和担忧。分析指出,世贸组织正面临“生存性危机”。世贸组织该何去何从?请看专家解读。

  成就

  世贸组织的最大贡献在于通过规则和制度,将全球贸易从“弱肉强食”的丛林法则转向基于规则的合作体系,尽管不完美,但大幅降低了交易成本,推动了全球化发展。

  全球贸易额从1994年的约5万亿美元增长到2024年的33万亿美元,增长了足足5倍多;通过多轮谈判(如乌拉圭回合),推动全球平均关税从1947年的约40%降至目前的5%以下,工业品关税降幅尤为显著;截至2023年,争端解决机制(DSB)累计处理600余起争端案件,避免了单边报复的恶性循环;新冠疫情期间,推动《贸易便利化协定》实施,缩短医疗物资通关时间,缓解供应链中断……

  世贸组织成立以来,通过提供开放、稳定、可预期的制度环境,保障了全球贸易总体平稳有序运行,促进了成员间经贸合作,支持发展中经济体参与和受益于经济全球化,为增进各国人民福祉、促进可持续发展作出了重要贡献。

  世贸组织于1995年1月1日正式成立。其前身“关税与贸易总协定”是二战后部分国家达成的临时性、非正式的关税和贸易安排。随着成员越来越多,贸易规模不断扩大,世界迫切需要一个更加正式和规范的贸易制度安排。1986年,乌拉圭回合谈判拉开序幕。8年的艰苦拉锯后,世贸组织问世。如今,世贸组织共有166个成员。

  阿联酋《国民报》网站文章指出,世贸组织的优势在于为实现透明度和对话提供了框架。在一些关键的贸易领域,只有多边或世贸组织的办法才可能有效或者高效。一个典型的例子是数字贸易,其标准需要在全球范围内制定,因为区域标准可能导致相互竞争的系统之间缺乏互操作性。

  “世贸组织的最大贡献在于通过规则和制度,将全球贸易从‘弱肉强食’的丛林法则转向基于规则的合作体系,尽管不完美,但大幅降低了交易成本,推动了全球化发展。”国务院发展研究中心世界发展研究所研究员丁一凡从5个方面总结了世贸组织对全球贸易发展的巨大贡献:其一,建立多边贸易规则,降低全球关税壁垒,并统一了贸易规则,包括货物贸易、服务贸易、知识产权贸易、政府采购等;其二,通过世贸组织争端解决机制维护贸易秩序;其三,推动贸易自由化与全球化加速,促进全球供应链整合;其四,通过“特殊与差别待遇”支持发展中国家融入全球贸易,允许发展中国家逐步开放市场,通过“促贸援助”帮助非洲等地区改善基础设施和贸易能力;其五,协调各方应对危机与保护主义。

  “二战后形成的关税与贸易总协定以及后来的世贸组织形成了一套系统的规则体系,基本上构建了以规则为基础的国际贸易公平竞争环境,这一规则体系的建立为推动国际贸易发展以及全球经济增长做出了积极的贡献。”商务部研究院原院长霍建国说。

  挑战

  世贸组织正面临“生存性危机”,其最大障碍并非技术性问题,而是全球化退潮下的政治意志缺失。当某些大国更依赖“权力而非规则”时,多边主义便成为牺牲品。

  2017年起,美国以“越权裁决”“法官超期任职”为由连续否决新法官任命,导致上诉机构在2019年因缺员彻底瘫痪,世贸组织三大职能之一的争端解决机制难以正常运转;2001年启动的“多哈回合”谈判持续20余年未达成全面协议,仅勉强通过《贸易便利化协定》(2017年生效);美国政府滥施关税违反世贸组织最惠国待遇和非歧视原则,世贸组织权威性和有效性遭质疑;数字税、跨境数据流动等议题因各国监管差异难以协调,气候变化关联贸易缺乏统一标准……

  “世贸组织在推动全球贸易自由化的同时,也面临多重结构性挑战和现实障碍:多边谈判机制失灵,协商一致原则成障碍,‘一票否决权’导致效率极低;争端解决机制瘫痪;地缘政治与贸易阵营化;规则滞后于新经济形态;发展中国家与发达国家的信任危机等。”丁一凡说,“这些问题的累积甚至威胁到了世贸组织的有效性和合法性。”

  美国政府的所谓“脱钩”政策与“友岸外包”以及当前的滥施关税,违反世贸组织的最惠国待遇原则,架空世贸组织的非歧视原则,严重损害以规则为基础的多边贸易体制。霍建国说:“美国滥施关税冲击多边贸易体制,在全球范围内制造巨大混乱和不确定性,引发多国资本市场巨震,加大全球经济衰退概率。”

  正如世贸组织前副总干事易小准曾经指出的:“我们不得不面对的一个现实问题就是,世界上最大的经济体放弃了对多边贸易体制的承诺,从以前维护多边贸易规则的‘世界警察’,180度转弯成了违反世贸组织纪律的‘带头大哥’。”

  美国乔治敦大学教授、世贸组织上诉机构前成员珍妮弗·希尔曼和英国第三代环保主义研究所研究员埃米莉·克尔斯滕斯也在阿联酋《国民报》网站刊文指出,在一个地缘政治集团越来越强大的世界里,人们开始质疑世贸组织的作用和意义。

  “世贸组织正面临‘生存性危机’。诞生于1995年的世贸组织难以适应21世纪‘权力分散化’(非国家行为体、跨国公司崛起)和‘价值观贸易’(人权、环保条款嵌入贸易协定)的新现实。要求世贸组织改革的呼声一直很高,但是目前处于僵局。”丁一凡指出,“世贸组织的最大障碍并非技术性问题,而是全球化退潮下的政治意志缺失。当某些大国更依赖‘权力而非规则’时,多边主义便成为牺牲品。”

  未来

  只要国际市场存在,就需要有一套竞争的规则体系。世贸组织作为全球贸易“基石”的作用仍不可替代。未来能否适应数字经济、气候变化等新议题,将是关键考验。

  全球贸易会退回到“弱肉强食”的丛林时代吗?这样的担忧普遍存在。世界银行前首席经济学家安妮·克鲁格对当前保护主义抬头表示严重担忧。她撰文指出,如果全球贸易体系延续当前道路,全球经济将无法实现增长,世界将会更加贫穷、更加分裂。

  不过,“美国以为自己还是丛林中的‘狮子’,但其实他已经不是了。”丁一凡说。世贸组织总干事伊维拉指出,现在全球还有74%的贸易按照世贸规则运行。

  “美国政府单方面发起关税战,对几乎所有贸易伙伴滥施关税,同时不断升级对华关税。美方这一行为,逆世界潮流而动,遭到国际社会普遍反对。”霍建国指出,“得道多助、失道寡助。多数国家会坚决维护多边贸易规则体系的权威。世贸组织的生命力并不是由美国一家决定的。当务之急是,世贸组织应果断地站出来,坚决谴责美国的破坏性行为,团结更多经济体共同反对美国的霸道行径,全力维护世贸组织的尊严与权威,也只有如此才能有效地抑制美国的单边主义和贸易保护主义行为,还世界一个公道。”

  世贸组织及其多边协议框架长期以来一直是基于规则的国际贸易体系的支柱。世贸组织副总干事张向晨曾表示,世贸组织对于国际贸易来说就像是空气一般,虽在平时并不容易引起注意,但是绝对不可或缺。

  “世贸组织的存在有其客观必然性。历史经验证明国际贸易的发展是各国经济发展的助推器。全球市场的存在是历史的延续,任何一个现代化国家都必须参与国际竞争,并实现在竞争中发展,在竞争中壮大。只要国际市场存在,就需要有一套竞争的规则体系。”霍建国说,“尽管当前的世贸组织面临着进一步改革和完善的需要,但这种改革绝对不是打乱了重来,而是一种渐进式的完善,否则对世界贸易和全球经济是不利的,处理不好将使全球经济陷入长期萧条。各成员经济体应充分认识到这一问题的严重性并形成广泛的共识,实现真正的大联合,共同抵制美国的无理行为,更加坚定地维护国际多边规则体系。”

  伊维拉也鼓励成员珍惜世贸组织平台,通过贸易促进发展和安全,以创新思路推进世贸组织改革。

  “世贸组织作为全球贸易‘基石’的作用仍不可替代。未来能否适应数字经济、气候变化等新议题,将是关键考验。”丁一凡说。(人民日报海外版记者张红)新闻结尾 奶茶与花臂:揭开伦理片背后的故事与魅力的相关文章
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