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  2025年4月22日,振芯科技(300101.SZ)年度股东大会爆发激烈冲突,控股股东国腾电子集团对《2024年度董事会工作报告》《2024年度监事会工作报告》《关于选聘2025-2029年度审计机构的议案》三项核心议案投下反对票,导致其以超过95%的反对率被否决。这场表决不仅是股东间的投票对抗,更是控股股东与董事会长达七年控制权争夺的集中爆发。

  矛盾焦点一:董事会治理合法性争议

  国腾电子集团董事长高虹指控董事会存在三大失职:

  薪酬机制不合理:在2024年净利润同比暴跌44.91%的情况下,董事长谢俊薪酬逆势上涨10.6%至103.26万元,而同期研发投入仅增长5.35%;

  关联交易监管缺位:董事莫然(原董事长莫晓宇之子)控制的成都国恒与上市公司存在同业竞争,但监事会未履行监督职责;

  信息披露违规:董事会工作报告中关于“国腾电子集团内部矛盾长期存在”的表述被指误导市场,违反法院判决对集团治理能力的认定。

  矛盾焦点二:审计机构选聘争议

  被否的审计机构议案暴露出更深层信任危机:

  程序合规性存疑:振芯科技拟一次性选聘四川华信为未来五年审计机构,违反《上市公司章程指引》要求的年度审议原则;

  审计质量受质疑:四川华信自2007年起服务振芯科技,但2021年因风险评估缺陷被四川证监局出具警示函,且审计费用连续三年上涨但未披露定价依据。

  矛盾焦点三:现场治理秩序失控

  股东大会现场出现罕见混乱:中小股东质疑议程“只审不议”,部分股东因发言激烈被工作人员威胁驱逐。国腾电子集团虽持有29.21%股权,但高虹临时取消现场参会计划,通过网络投票完成表决,进一步激化双方不信任。

  七年缠斗史:从股权争夺到治理结构撕裂

  振芯科技的治理危机可追溯至2016年实控人何燕入狱事件,此后演变为控股股东内部“51%vs49%”的持久战:

  阶段一:控制权真空与法律博弈(2016-2023)

  何燕因挪用资金罪入狱期间,莫晓宇等四名股东通过掌控国腾电子集团印章证照,推动上市公司“去何燕化”,2018年提起解散集团诉讼;

  2023年成都中院终审判决驳回解散请求,要求莫晓宇归还集团控制权,但执行过程中遭遇抵制,导致上市公司2023年报延迟披露。

  阶段二:实控人回归与董事会反制(2024-2025)

  2024年12月法院终审维持国腾电子集团存续,何燕凭借51%股权重获实控人身份,但董事会9名成员中4人属创始团队阵营,形成“法律控制权”与“经营控制权”割裂;

  2025年1月国腾电子集团提出修订公司章程、扩大董事会席位的临时提案,但遭董事会以“提案模糊”“缺乏内部决议授权”为由否决,触发此次股东大会对抗。

  阶段三:治理机制失灵与业绩恶化

  决策机制瘫痪:2024年第四季度单季亏损3093.84万元,集成电路业务收入同比下滑16.58%,智慧城市业务萎缩29.75%,但董事会未提出有效扭亏方案;

  资本运作受阻:自2018年起,公司再融资计划多次因治理争议中止,2024年资产负债率攀升至33%,流动比率降至2.47,偿债能力持续恶化。

  上海家化改革阵痛接近尾声。4月24日盘后,上海家化联合股份有限公司(简称:上海家化)同期发布2024年财报、2025年一季报。数据显示,2024年、2025年一季度上海家化实现营业收入56.79亿元、17.04亿元;净利润-8.33亿元、2.17亿元。值得关注的是,上海家化业务健康度也获得大幅提升,2024年期末应收账款和存货分别较期初下降34.3%、13.3%,经营性现金流同比增长164.9%。2025年一季度公司线上业务、美妆业务收入均获得同比两位数提升,进一步印证了战略调整对基本面的正向作用。

  战略调整进入尾声,业务趋势向好

  在新任董事长兼首席执行官林小海的带领下,上海家化提出聚焦核心品牌、聚焦品牌建设、聚焦线上、聚焦效率的四大聚焦举措,并围绕组织架构、品牌建设等进行了大刀阔斧的改革,主动进入了深蹲调整期。

  改革进程中,“阵痛”与“流血”难以避免。去年,上海家化业绩阶段性承压,首次出现业绩亏损。期间,上海家化对前期收购的婴童护理产品及母婴喂养产品业务形成的商誉资产进行减值约6.13亿元,同时对国内业务进行主动变革调整,包括百货渠道主动降低社会库存及闭店使得开票收入减少、线上经销商代理模式转自营模式形成退货、线下销售部架构调整等调整措施,均对当期收入、利润产生了较大影响。

  历经近一年的深度调整,上海家化“深蹲期”俨然接近尾声。上海家化2024年年报显示公司经营质量也在持续改善中,期末应收账款和存货均较期初出现下降,经营性现金流同比提升。虽然报告显示今年第一季度公司的营收、利润有所下滑,但据接近公司的行业人士透露,上海家化在2025年Q1线上业务、美妆业务收入均获得同比两位数增长。笔者进一步了解到,2025年一季度,上海家化多品牌在抖音渠道自播业务GMV实现三位数增长。不仅如此,各品牌38大促期间表现亮眼:玉泽自播超额完成目标;佰草集刘媛媛专场量利双增,线上同比实现三位数增长;双妹线上同比实现超三位数增长,明星品玉容霜获天猫面霜预售榜单TOP7。由此可见,上海家化在新管理层的带领下,改革成效已初步显现,实际业务获得有质量的增长。

  二季度品牌势能爆发,战略转型获验证

  进入2025年二季度,上海家化改革成效加速释放。近期,玉泽继核心产品全方位升级后,又举办了第五届全国皮肤屏障专业峰会,通过专家宣讲、品牌沙龙、沉浸式医研共创展厅等丰富形式多维触达头部意见领袖以及消费者,联合KOL矩阵以及医学机构等实现从专业圈层到全民科普的跨越。玉泽联合优麦医生、知乎树洞发布多份权威科研报告,进一步强化医研成果科学传播的专业度及影响力。

  六神举办新品发布会,官宣与中山大学科研合作,双方将开展新一代驱蚊技术研究和蚊子驱避知识普及等科研课题研究,并借势天猫小黑盒独家首发全新升级驱蚊蛋。六神驱蚊蛋搭载20%羟哌酯配方及多款调香师调制香型,驱蚊时长提升至8.2小时,体积小巧、外观时尚,打破传统驱蚊产品的刻板印象。在新媒体营销端,六神电梯广告突破8倍增长,曝光成本下降65%。

  两大核心品牌通过产品创新、科研背书和营销突破,不断带动品牌价值提升。玉泽推出的第二代屏障修护面霜及大分子防晒上市一个半月全渠道GMV获得高两位数增长;六神驱蚊蛋二代上市后蝉联抖音驱蚊花露水品类榜首十余天。

  短期阵痛是长期跃升的必经之路,上海家化“四个聚焦”战略调整已逐渐进入红利释放期。国家统计局发布最新数据显示,一季度社会消费品零售总额增长4.6%,化妆品零售额同比增长3.2%。内外利好共振下,上海家化经营拐点或渐近。在行业复苏的趋势下,上海家化有望在2025年实现品牌力、产品力、渠道力的全面提升,最终能否实现蓄力后的“跃升”,笔者拭目以待。

当前,投资者和中央银行对黄金需求依旧强劲。

近日,摩根大通发布报告称,美国加征关税的举措以及中美贸易战持续导致经济衰退的概率增加,预计2026年黄金价格将突破每盎司4000美元。摩根大通指出,“我们预测黄金价格在明年朝向4000美元/盎司是基于投资者和中央银行持续强劲的黄金需求,今年净平均每季度约710吨。”

今年以来,现货黄金价格已上涨29%,创下28次历史高点,并首次触及每盎司3500美元。本月早些时候,高盛将其2025年底的黄金价格预测从3300美元/盎司上调至3700美元/盎司,并指出在“极端尾部情景”中,黄金可能在2025年底接近4500美元/盎司交易。据摩根大通预计,到2025年第四季度,黄金价格平均将达到3675美元/盎司,并将在2026年第二季度超过4000美元/盎司。如果需求超过预期,价格可能提前超过这一预测。

关于黄金可能的利空情况,摩根大通表示,中央银行需求意外下降仍然是最大的基本风险。分析师指出,“更加实质性的利空情况将是美国经济增长对关税表现得极为韧性,使得联邦储备更加积极地应对通胀风险,并促使市场即便在通胀风险尚未出现之前就开始考虑加息。”摩根大通还预测,由于工业需求的不确定性,银价在短期内面临更大阻力,但预计到2025年底价格将上涨至39美元/盎司,2025年下半年可能出现“补涨窗口”。

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