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海水苦泪水甜,探究的实际应用

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  来源:环球老虎财经app

  新奥股份推进港股子公司新奥能源私有化事件一度引起热议。而在回复上交所问询函时,公司将交易方案内涵的多层次合理性公之于众,有效回应市场关切。

  千亿天然气“巨头”新奥股份正式发起对新奥能源的私有化进程已有数日。

  按照计划,新奥股份将以全资子公司新能香港作为要约人,向除新能香港之外持有新奥能源已发行或在计划登记日前可能发行股份的股东(即“计划股东”)提出私有化新奥能源方案,并向新奥能源购股权持有人提出购股权要约。

  据悉,计划股东手中的每1股股份可以获得新奥股份新发行的2.9427股H股股份和新能香港以现金方式按照24.5港元/股支付的现金付款。按新奥股份H股价值估计范围中值18.86港元/股计算,H股股份及现金付款的理论总价值约为80港元/股。

  交易完成后,新奥能源将从控股子公司变为新奥股份全资子公司并退市。新奥股份将登陆港股市场,计划股东将成为新奥股份H股股东。

  值得注意的是,本次私有化事件也引发资本市场轰动。对此,新奥股份在近期进一步向市场关心的焦点问题予以详实、细致地说明,并对交易方案的内在合理性逐一进行解析。

  4月17日,新奥股份发布公告称于4月9日收到上交所问询函。公告中,公司就自身及新奥能源的每股定价、重大资产购买的资金安排、后续审批备案等相关问题作出具体回复。

  溢价私有化背后的

  “三重考量”

  3月19日及3月26日,新奥股份先后对外公告将筹划重大资产重组事项以及私有化新奥能源事宜。据新奥股份在回复函中透露,实际上公司管理层最早于2024年10月31日便开始对交易方案开展正式讨论。

  在此番充分准备基础上,本次新奥股份对于私有化新奥能源的审视也显得较为全面。剖析公司回复函发现,其所设计的换股比例、现金对价、H股估值以及最终的理论总价值均在不同程度上彰显合理性。

  首先,对于新奥能源方面的计划股东来说,此次方案较为友好。

  具体来看,24.5港元/股的交易现金对价相当于新奥能源3.5公告日前54.2港元/股收盘价的45.20%,可为计划股东带来良好的流动性加持。并且,计划股东所获新奥股份H股股份及现金付款的理论总价值折合80港元/股,较3.5公告日前新奥能源收盘价高出约47.6%,也具备吸引力。

  其次,在充分顾及计划股东利益的基础上,此次方案溢价水平也与市场水平相当,对于新奥股份股东而言收购优质资产估值合适。

  细数近十年成功完成规模以上可比换股的私有化交易发现,每股理论要约价格较最后前30个、60个、90个交易日的平均收盘价溢价率中位数分别为34.73%、39.58%和39.74%,在近五年这三项数据分别录得42.65%、43.87%和45.9%。

  按照80港元/股的理论总价值测算,本次交易较新奥能源3.5公告前30个、60个、90个交易日溢价率分别达49.99%、48.91%和48.81%,这相比市场其他可比换股私有化交易溢价率不存在显著差异。

  同时,在理论总价值口径下计算可得,新奥能源的估值相较新奥股份以及行业非常接近。对比来看,新奥能源基本每股收益对应市盈率为13.81倍,新奥股份基本每股收益对应市盈率13.46倍,行业可比上市公司基本每股收益市盈率中位值13.28倍、平均值13.69倍。

  值得注意的是,2020年新奥股份向关联人收购新奥能源控制权时,对新奥能源每股定价是79.57港币/股,本次对新奥能源定价与2020年交易基本一致。

  新奥能源之外,新奥股份18.86港元/股的H股估值定位亦较为适中。

  根据公告,新奥股份A股最后30个交易日期间内平均收盘价19.36元/股。而新百利通过可比公司法、SOTP法、A股比较法三条路径,最终新奥股份H股估值定为估值范围中值18.86港元/股,较3.5公告日前A股股价折价约10.7%,处在市场折价水平区间内。

  最后,按照此方案执行新奥能源私有化,新奥股份和新奥能源股东的每股收益均实现增厚。

  公告显示,根据2024年新奥能源的年度报告和3.5公告中披露的审阅备考报告数据测算,本次交易完成后,新奥能源的计划股东2024年基本EPS增厚约24%。根据上市公司2024年度审计报告以及上市公司2024年度未经审阅的备考合并财务报表,新奥股份的2024年基本EPS增厚约7%。

  交易“粮草”

  准备充裕

  透视股权结构,在私有化实施前,新奥股份持有新奥能源34.28%股权并对其合并报表。

  考虑到新奥能源的计划股份及购股权情况并假设全部购股权截至计划登记日全部行权,依照24.5港元/股的交易现金对价和总共80港元/股的收购价格计算,新奥股份需支付的总对价至多达599.24亿港元,折合人民币553.24亿元,其中现金对价约为184亿港元。

  目前,对于现金部分款项,新奥股份表示会通过银行借款及自有方式进行筹备。

  新奥股份透露,子公司新能香港已经与中国银行(香港)有限公司签署外部贷款协议,后者将向新能香港提供承诺金额为185亿港元的私有化贷款。在相关贷款先决条件达成后,新能香港可以按照贷款协议的约定提取贷款。

  与此同时,新奥股份考虑到境内贷款相比于境外贷款融资成本更低且融资期限更长,故也与境内银行进行沟通。当下,公司计划取得境内并购贷款,并搭配部分自有资金,用于支付本次交易现金对价的备选方案或偿还境外贷款。

  境内并购贷款方面,根据新奥股份与授信银行的沟通情况,该贷款期限可达7年,贷款利率将不超过2.8%。

  自有资金方面,截至2024年底,新奥股份账面非受限货币资金(含拆出资金)合计153.64 亿元,年经营活动产生的现金流量净额为141.62亿元,资金使用空间充足。

  根据回复来看,本次交易现金对价支付后,新奥股份资本结构和偿债能力、营运能力仍保持稳健。

  根据新奥股份所述,假设本次交易的现金支付部分全部采用借款进行支付,基于2024年末数据进行备考模拟,交易完成后上市公司资产负债率将从2024年年末的54%提升至约67%,相关资产负债率仍处于合理水平。

  新奥股份也指出,考虑到2025年内的净利润积累,实际交割时资产负债率会进一步下降。同时公司还提到,合并后其归母净利润进一步提升,营运能力不会因为本次现金支付受到不利影响;随着经营积累,本次交易造成的资产负债率影响会持续降低。

  另外,据新奥股份2024年年报,截至当年末公司储备未使用银行授信合计仍有486.42亿元。在此支撑下,公司日常各项融资及未来偿债需求皆得以被满足。

  “解锁”发展

  新动能

  根据国家市场监督管理总局反垄断局商谈回复,鉴于本次交易前后新奥能源均为新奥股份控制企业,故本次交易不构成经营者集中,无需履行反垄断审查程序。

  展望未来,在私有化新奥能源交易成功之后,新奥股份将实现产业链业务能力及资源整合,公司经营或迎来多维度提质。

  资料显示,新奥股份核心业务平台交易气集中于天然气产业链中游,主要负责天然气资源获取及分销,新奥能源主营业务为天然气零售,集中于产业链下游。未来,两者的优势互补有望凸显。

  具体来看,于新奥股份而言,其可充分发挥其天然气资源池优势和LNG接收站储运能力,为新奥能源应对下游客户需求的变化提供有效支撑。同时,新奥股份也可将上游气源与新奥能源客户需求进行匹配,进一步扩大资源池,提升舟山LNG接收站使用效率。

  此外,新奥股份也能借助这次交易增强天然气全场景优势,包括客户基础、海内外资源池、基础设施支点以及国际风控体系等等。

  在客户基础方面,公司有望在城燃特许经营权基础之上拓展更多国际和国内客户;海内外资源池方面,公司所持有的天然气长协资源可作为新奥能源天然气业务“压舱石”,保障气源稳定供应,平抑气价市场波动,增强业务稳定性。

  而在基础设施支点方面,公司可发挥舟山LNG接收站的支点作用,联动国际与国内市场;国际风控体系方面,公司可进一步增强套期保值能力以及风险控制能力,利用国内国际市场,实现多元化收入来源和风险对冲,保持整体业务平衡稳健。

  当然,通过交易,新奥股份在效率层面的提升同样值得期待。譬如,公司可以实现资金的统一管理筹划,减少资金占用,有效控制财务费用;而公司和新奥能源之间的交易也不再受限于港股上市公司关联交易管理要求,有利于更加灵活快速响应上下游协同需求。

  值得一提的是,私有化新奥能源进而也将为新奥股份打通“A+H”上市版图。而这不仅能够拓宽公司融资渠道,也能为公司国际影响力增强添加砝码。

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