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盛宠 冥王冷妃:寻找生活的乐趣与灵感,重拾内心的平静

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  ETF市场总规模突破4万亿元。

  4月18日早盘,A股市场缩量下跌,成交额为5717.56亿元,环比减少超600亿元;沪指跌0.39%,深证成指跌0.31%,创业板指跌0.4%。市场核心指数中,北证50逆市上涨,涨幅达1.47%;此外,创成长亦小幅上涨0.07%。

  从板块上来看,6G、钴矿概念领涨,银行表现较好,行业指数上涨0.68%。乳业板块集体回调,前期大涨的贝因美跌停;稀土、生物育种、黄金珠宝等概念走低。

  ETF总规模突破4万亿元

  据证券时报·数据宝统计,截至4月17日,ETF市场总规模首次突破4万亿元,达到40038.97亿元,较上一交易日增加170.07亿元,自4月7日以来已连续8个交易日规模增长。

  按投资范畴来看,宽基ETF规模快速回升,最新规模2.19万亿元,较4月7日增长2508.93亿元。商品型ETF增速更加明显,规模由4月7日的1128.17亿元增长到1465.58亿元,增幅接近30%。4月7日以来黄金ETF平均上涨6.68%,获资金持续流入。

  从资金面上来看,10只ETF4月7日以来获资金净流入超百亿元,其中前4均为沪深300ETF。

  华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF居于首位,达到413.3亿元;华夏沪深300ETF、易方达沪深300ETF、嘉实沪深300ETF紧随其后,分别为316.96亿元、306.29亿元、201.57亿元。目前沪深300ETF总规模已达到1.03万亿元,占比超过市场的四分之一。

  近期市场波动加大,“国家队”多次出手增持ETF,有效提振市场信心,维护资本市场稳定。4月7日开始,中央汇金、中国诚通、中国国新等相继宣布增持股票及ETF等,坚定看好中国资本市场发展前景,宽基ETF集体放量。

  工信部:加快推进6G技术研发

  国新办于今日上午10时举行一季度有关经济数据例行新闻发布会,工业和信息化部信息通信发展司司长谢存表示,大家都十分关心6G的研发,工信部指导成立了IMT-2030(6G)推进组,凝聚合力推进6G创新,发布《6G总体愿景与潜在关键技术》等50余项研究成果,组织对通感一体化、无线AI等6G关键技术开展测试验证,加速技术成熟。同时,进一步深化与欧盟、韩国、印度等国家和地区在6G领域的国际交流合作。

  下一步,工信部将在推动科技创新和产业创新融合的深度上下功夫,凝聚产学研用各方力量,加快推进6G技术研发、标准制定、中试验证和产业落实,加强通信、感知、智能、计算等融合技术突破,前瞻布局和培育面向6G的应用产业生态。

  4月以来,6G板块消息不断,4月10日至12日2025全球6G技术与产业生态大会召开,会上首次公开了最新构建的全球首个6G通智感融合外场试验网,在国际上率先实现了较5G提升10倍以上的极致连接能力和高精度目标感知新能力。

  北京印发的《北京市5G规模化应用“扬帆”行动升级方案(2025—2027年)》中提到,积极开展6G技术和产品研发;山东也发布关于开展6G相关产业及技术预研情况摸底调研的通知。

  6G概念股集体走高

  4月18日早盘,6G概念股集体走高,海能达、华脉科技(维权)收盘涨停,创远信科上涨17.8%,世嘉科技、大富科技、金信诺、通宇通讯涨幅均在5%以上。

  海能达开盘十分钟内触及涨停板,收盘有超79万手买单封死涨停,封单资金达到9.37亿元。公司此前在投资者互动平台上表示,公司作为IMT-2030需求工作组成员之一,一直持续关注6G相关技术。

  据数据宝统计,A股市场中,布局6G产业链的概念股共有35只,目前7股已公布一季度业绩预告或一季报,其中1股扭亏,5股归母净利润预计同比增长。

  按预告净利润同比增幅下限来看,移远通信居首,达到265.19%;鼎通科技其次,为190.12%;国脉科技、华工科技、华测导航预计增幅均在30%以上

  移远通信业绩预告显示,预计第一季度实现归母净利润20亿元左右,同比增长约265.19%。此前公司在投资者互动平台上表示,公司作为3GPP全球蜂窝移动通信标准化组织成员,积极开展人工智能/机器学习、通信感知一体化和面向6G的关键技术研究。

  黄金价格猛涨,现货黄金已经突破3300美金/盎司,最高攀升至3357.01美元/盎司。伴随金价持续飙升,国内多只黄金ETF于近日紧急发布公告,暂停申购和赎回业务,并提示投资者关注短期交易风险。今年国际金价涨幅已经达到26.25%,成为今年最好的投资品,没有之一。黄金ETF回报也水涨船高,目前场内20只黄金ETF年内净值平均涨幅为27.7%,合计规模已超1442亿元,较2024年底已经翻倍。

  多家机构提示投资风险

  4月16日,嘉实基金公告,嘉实上海金ETF发起联接暂停大额申购,以保障基金业绩与投资者利益。

  公告指出,自2024年4月18日起,嘉实上海金ETF发起联接的单个开放日每个基金账户的累计申购(含转换转入及定期定额投资)金额不得超过100万元。如投资者提交的申购金额超过100万元,嘉实基金将有权拒绝相关申请。

  嘉实基金表示,此次暂停大额申购的决定旨在控制基金的规模,确保基金的投资策略得以有效执行,降低投资风险,从而维护基金份额持有人的利益。同时,通过控制规模,嘉实基金能够更好地管理基金资产,优化投资组合,提高基金的整体业绩。

  永赢基金4月16日发布公告称,永赢中证沪深港黄金产业股票ETF将于4月18日起暂停申购、赎回、转换及定期定额投资业务的公告。此外,国泰基金、华夏基金、华安基金旗下的黄金股ETF也均在4月15日发布相关公告。

  “限购主要是因为黄金今年的涨幅明显,相关ETF产品的价格也跟着水涨船高,资金流入速度远超资产配置节奏,需防范因申赎波动导致的净值偏差风险。”排排网财富研究员卜益力表示。

  除了基金公司之外,多家银行也发布关于贵金属业务市场风险提示的公告,提醒投资者提高贵金属业务的风险防范意识,理性投资。4月14日,建设银行在官网发布《关于近期贵金属业务市场风险提示的公告》称,近期国内外贵金属价格波动加剧,市场风险提升。请投资者提高贵金属业务的风险防范意识,合理控制仓位,及时关注持仓情况和保证金余额变化情况,理性投资。这已经是建设银行近一个月的第二次风险提示了,此前3月下旬,也曾发布过类似提示。

  此外工商银行、兴业银行也都给出类似提示。3月18日,上海黄金交易所也要求会员单位提示投资者“合理控制仓位”,做好风险预案。

  华尔街急速“撕报告”

  黄金价格早早完成了今年的KPI。华尔街虽然连续“撕报告”,但是仍赶不上黄金上涨的速度。4月11日高盛再度上调黄金的价格,高盛LinaThomas团队将2025年底金价目标从3300美元/盎司提高至3700美元/盎司,并预计交易区间为3650-3950美元。这一调整反映了央行购金力度超预期、衰退风险增加对ETF流入的提振,以及黄金作为避险资产的独特地位。而在极端情况下,如果央行需求持续升至110吨/月,ETF持有量反弹至疫情时期水平,投机性头寸达到历史范围顶部,黄金甚至可能触及4500美元/盎司。然而,这样的情景被视为低概率事件。

  摩根士丹利分析师指出,各国央行增加黄金储备和投资者买入黄金是推升国际金价的两大主要因素,在美联储降息背景下,国际金价受到更多有利因素支持。目前实物需求稳定,预计资金流入ETF可能刚刚开始,在这种情况下,今年国际金价可能升至3300~3400美元/盎司。

  花旗集团大宗商品研究部全球主管马克斯·莱顿表示,预计国际金价可能继续上涨。推动黄金牛市的基本面因素仍然存在,并可能继续推动国际金价一路上涨,从目前情况来看,未来几个月国际金价或将升至3200美元/盎司。如果美国经济增长情况转差,更令人担忧,国际金价则可能会升至3500美元/盎司。

  瑞士百达资产管理分析特朗普关税政策对市场影响时认为,黄金有望进一步上涨,主要受到实际利率下降、美元疲软以及全球经济不确定性增加等影响。但值得注意的是,过去一年中黄金价格涨幅已达40%,当前估值处于较高水平。

  资金在加速流入黄金市场,世界黄金协会数据显示,3月全球黄金ETF流入势头正旺,连续第四个月实现流入。3月,全球实物黄金ETF强势流入约86亿美元,推动一季度流入总金额达210亿美元(226吨),创下历史第二高季度纪录。

  其中,北美地区3月流入约65亿美元,占当月全球黄金ETF需求的76%。金价强势上涨、美元走软、关税政策和冲突局势的不确定性为黄金提供持续支撑。亚洲地区3月流入约9.4亿美元,中国和日本主导了3月的需求增长。

  根据中国央行公布的数据,中国3月末黄金储备报7370万盎司(2292.33吨),较2月末7361万盎司(2289.53吨)增加9万盎司(2.8吨),已经连续5个月购买黄金。除了中国央行购金外,中国头部保险公司的资产公司也已经开始购买黄金投资的操作。

  不过一个有意思的现象是,美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)数据显示,截至4月8日当周,投机者持有的COMEX黄金净多头头寸减少了38088手合约,降至138465手合约,创下13个月以来的新低。

周五日韩股市收高,日经225指数收盘上涨1.0%,报34730.28点,制药和航运类股领涨。韩国综合股价指数(Kospi)收涨0.5%,报2483.42点。

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