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  由于来自海外旅游的萎缩和对美国产品的抵制,美国经济在2025年将损失数十亿美元的收入,这使不断增加的不利因素进一步增多,导致经济衰退风险居高不下。

  美国国际贸易管理局周一公布的数据显示,3月份非美国公民乘飞机抵达美国的人数较去年同期下降了近10%。高盛集团估计,在最坏的情况下,今年因旅游减少和抵制造成的损失可能总计达到国内生产总值的0.3%,相当于近900亿美元。

  近年来,随着疫情期间限制措施的取消,国际旅游出现复苏,外国旅游业一直是美国经济的一项助力。但在边境敌意增加、地缘政治摩擦加剧和全球经济不确定性的情况下,许多潜在游客现在正在重新考虑他们的度假计划。

  加拿大摄像师柯蒂斯・艾伦就是其中之一。在唐纳德・特朗普总统对他的祖国征收惩罚性关税并暗示加拿大应成为美国第51个州后,他取消了即将到来的美国度假计划。多年来,艾伦和他的伴侣多次去俄勒冈州露营,但今年,他们将改去不列颠哥伦比亚省旅游。

  “我们不只是待在家里,”34岁的艾伦说。“我们会去其他地方花同样的钱。”

  艾伦的犹豫不止于此。他取消了奈飞的订阅服务,在杂货店也积极避开美国进口商品。

  “现在我们要花双倍的时间,因为我们要看看产品是从哪里来的,”他说。

  根据美国国际贸易管理局的数据,去年国际游客在美国的消费达到创纪录的2540亿美元。到2025年,前景原本是乐观的:美国国际贸易管理局在3月初预计,美国今年将迎来7700万游客,略低于2019年的纪录,然后在2026年将达到新高。

  但这些预测是在美国机场严厉拘留游客的报道开始成为头条新闻之前发布的,这些报道涉及法国和德国等国的游客。与此同时,作为美国最大的外国游客群体,加拿大人选择留在国内,因为特朗普加大了对加拿大经济和主权的攻击。

  彭博情报分析,国际游客在美国近200亿美元的零售支出可能面临风险。

  大幅回落的早期迹象已经显现。根据美国劳工统计局4月10日发布的一份关于消费者价格的月度报告,3月份机票、酒店价格和汽车租赁成本都有所下降。高盛和汇丰控股的经济学家表示,需求下降,包括外国游客需求的下降,可能是原因之一。

  通胀洞察公司总裁奥迈尔・谢里夫指出,酒店价格的下降尤其是由东北部地区近11%的降幅推动的,这可能是加拿大游客前往该地区减少的结果。

  “考虑到我们所知道的加拿大游客数量的下降幅度,这对那个地区来说可能有点令人担忧,”谢里夫说。

  夏季

  尼亚加拉大瀑布的彩虹航空直升机旅游公司的销售和市场经理帕特里克・凯斯说,对他们公司来说,这个时机“非常有趣”。该公司刚刚在繁忙的夏季来临前投资2500万美元建造了一座新大楼,扩充了机队,并增加了一个虚拟现实景点。“我们正在等待看看会有什么后果,”他说。

  根据OAG全球航空的一份报告,截至9月,加拿大到美国的航班预订量与去年同期相比下降了70%。与此同时,雅高酒店集团旗下酒店的欧洲游客夏季预订量也下降了25%。该集团首席执行官塞巴斯蒂安・巴赞表示,这可能是因为边境拘留事件造成了“不良影响”,使游客转向了其他目的地。

  高盛经济学家约瑟夫・布里格斯和梅根・彼得斯在3月31日的一份报告中表示:“美国的关税声明以及对传统盟友采取更强硬的立场,损害了全球对美国的看法。”

  他们还称:“除了关税更直接的负面影响以及外国报复对出口的拖累(这些已经纳入我们对美国国内生产总值的预测中)之外,这种不利因素为美国国内生产总值增长在2025年可能低于共识预期提供了另一个原因。”

  尽管前景日益黯淡,但俄勒冈州旅游委员会(即俄勒冈旅游局)首席执行官托德・戴维森表示,他们仍在继续努力吸引外国游客。他的团队刚刚从温哥华的一次探险旅游会议上宣传俄勒冈州回来,在接下来的几周里,他们将接待来自英国、印度和巴西等地的销售和营销合作伙伴。

  与此同时,他们也在考虑随着情况的发展,旅游委员会是否需要将战略更多地转向国内游客。

  “俄勒冈州现在不会,将来也不会忽视那些国际市场,”戴维森说。“当我们的国际游客觉得他们准备好回来时,我们会在这里等着他们。”

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